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Pakistan ODI Tri-Series · 2026/27 · Men
18 Oct 2026 · ODI
Rawalpindi Cricket Stadium · Venue photographRecorded result
Pakistan more likely to win
Model tested on 501 past ODIs it never saw: its favourite won 63% of the time.
A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.
Worked out only from matches played before this one. The chances come from each side’s results rating in this format (an Elo rating that moves after every result), who is at home, recent form and past meetings. We tested it on matches from 2024 onwards that it had never seen. Upsets happen.
Pakistan started on 70%; Pakistan batted first.
Innings 1
| Batter | Dismissal | R | B | 4s | 6s | SR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 Fakhar Zamancaught · Sachindu Colombage · Dilshan Madushanka2 fours · 1 sixes | caught · Sachindu Colombage · b Dilshan Madushanka | 16 | 19 | 2 | 1 | 84.21 |
| Saim Ayubcaught · Janith Liyanage · Dilshan Madushanka 0 fours · 1 sixes | caught · Janith Liyanage · b Dilshan Madushanka | 7 | 8 | 0 | 1 | 87.50 |
 Mohammad Babar Azamcaught · Pavan Rathnayake · Eshan Malinga6 fours · 0 sixes | caught · Pavan Rathnayake · b Eshan Malinga | 45 | 57 | 6 | 0 | 78.95 |
| Saad Baigcaught · Sachindu Colombage · Eshan Malinga 3 fours · 2 sixes | caught · Sachindu Colombage · b Eshan Malinga | 39 | 40 | 3 | 2 | 97.50 |
Pakistan's chances ranged from 44% to 100% during the match (Sri Lanka: 0% to 56%).
Tested on every ball of 247 matches from 2024 it never saw: error score 0.171, against 0.234 for the pre-match chance alone (lower is better).
A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.
Before a ball is bowled the chance comes from the pre-match model. After each ball we compare the score with what usually follows from that many overs and wickets left at this ground (like a rain-rule resource table) and, in a chase, with the runs still needed. Early on the pre-match view counts most; late on the situation does.
| Salman Ali Aghacaught · Dasun Shanaka · Asitha Fernando 10 fours · 1 sixes |
|---|
| caught · Dasun Shanaka · b Asitha Fernando |
| 107 |
| 90 |
| 10 |
| 1 |
| 118.89 |
| Hassan Nawazcaught · Pavan Rathnayake · Asitha Fernando 2 fours · 2 sixes | caught · Pavan Rathnayake · b Asitha Fernando | 37 | 49 | 2 | 2 | 75.51 |
|---|
| Arafat Minhascaught · Kamindu Mendis · Asitha Fernando 2 fours · 0 sixes | caught · Kamindu Mendis · b Asitha Fernando | 18 | 15 | 2 | 0 | 120.00 |
|---|
| Fahim Ashrafcaught · Kusal Mendis · Eshan Malinga 0 fours · 0 sixes | caught · Kusal Mendis · b Eshan Malinga | 6 | 6 | 0 | 0 | 100.00 |
|---|
 Shaheen Afridinot out2 fours · 0 sixes | not out | 13* | 12 | 2 | 0 | 108.33 |
|---|
 Naseem Shahlbw · Eshan Malinga0 fours · 0 sixes | lbw · b Eshan Malinga | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 |
|---|
 Haris Raufrun out · Sahan Arachchige, Eshan Malinga · Eshan Malinga0 fours · 0 sixes | run out · Sahan Arachchige, Eshan Malinga | 0 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 |
|---|
| Extras | byes: 0 · legbyes: 4 · wides: 11 · noballs: 2 · penalty: 0 | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bowler | Overs | M | R | W | Runs / 6 balls | WD | NB |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Asitha Fernando1 maidens · 3 wides · 0 no-balls | 10.0 | 1 | 59 | 3 | 5.90 | 3 | 0 |
| Dilshan Madushanka0 maidens · 1 wides · 1 no-balls | 10.0 | 0 | 67 | 2 | 6.70 | 1 | 1 |
| Dasun Shanaka0 maidens · 1 wides · 0 no-balls | 7.0 | 0 | 41 | 0 | 5.86 | 1 | 0 |
| Eshan Malinga1 maidens · 2 wides · 0 no-balls | 9.5 | 1 | 46 | 4 | 4.68 | 2 | 0 |
| Sachindu Colombage0 maidens · 4 wides · 0 no-balls | 10.0 | 0 | 61 | 0 | 6.10 | 4 | 0 |
| Kamindu Mendis0 maidens · 0 wides · 1 no-balls | 2.0 | 0 | 19 | 0 | 9.50 | 0 | 1 |
| Sahan Arachchige0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 1.0 | 0 | 8 | 0 | 8.00 | 0 | 0 |
1-23 (Saim Ayub, 3.4) · 2-32 (Fakhar Zaman, 5.5) · 3-106 (Mohammad Babar Azam, 19.4) · 4-118 (Saad Baig, 21.5) · 5-215 (Hassan Nawaz, 37.2) · 6-279 (Arafat Minhas, 45.0) · 7-291 (Salman Ali Agha, 46.5) · 8-293 (Fahim Ashraf, 47.2) · 9-293 (Naseem Shah, 47.3) · 10-305 (Haris Rauf, 49.5)
| Over / set | Runs | Score |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | 0 | 0/0 |
| 2 | 9 | 9/0 |
| 3 | 8 | 17/0 |
| 4 | 6 | 23/1 |
| 5 | 8 | 31/1 |
| 6 | 1 | 32/2 |
| 7 | 7 | 39/2 |
| 8 | 8 | 47/2 |
| 9 | 3 | 50/2 |
| 10 | 4 | 54/2 |
| 11 | 4 | 58/2 |
| 12 | 4 | 62/2 |
| 13 | 6 | 68/2 |
| 14 | 5 | 73/2 |
| 15 | 4 | 77/2 |
| 16 | 13 | 90/2 |
| 17 | 4 | 94/2 |
| 18 | 4 | 98/2 |
| 19 | 3 | 101/2 |
| 20 | 5 | 106/3 |
| 21 | 11 | 117/3 |
| 22 | 3 | 120/4 |
| 23 | 3 | 123/4 |
| 24 | 2 | 125/4 |
| 25 | 11 | 136/4 |
| 26 | 5 | 141/4 |
| 27 | 8 | 149/4 |
| 28 | 4 | 153/4 |
| 29 | 2 | 155/4 |
| 30 | 5 | 160/4 |
| 31 | 7 | 167/4 |
| 32 | 5 | 172/4 |
| 33 | 6 | 178/4 |
| 34 | 8 | 186/4 |
| 35 | 8 | 194/4 |
| 36 | 10 | 204/4 |
| 37 | 9 | 213/4 |
| 38 | 4 | 217/5 |
| 39 | 8 | 225/5 |
| 40 | 13 | 238/5 |
| 41 | 5 | 243/5 |
| 42 | 6 | 249/5 |
| 43 | 4 | 253/5 |
| 44 | 15 | 268/5 |
| 45 | 11 | 279/6 |
| 46 | 7 | 286/6 |
| 47 | 6 | 292/7 |
| 48 | 1 | 293/9 |
| 49 | 7 | 300/9 |
| 50 | 5 | 305/10 |
Shaheen Afridi: CRICKETNEXT · CC BY 3.0
Mohammad Babar Azam: ICNA · CC BY 3.0
Haris Rauf: BBC Urdu · CC BY 3.0
Janith Liyanage: Neb · CC BY-SA 4.0
Naseem Shah: BBC Urdu · CC BY 3.0
Fakhar Zaman: Pakistan Cricket Board · CC BY 3.0
Statistics are calculated from imported deliveries. Super overs are separate; source corrections may change recorded figures.
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