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Asian Cricket Council Women's Premier Cup · 2023/24 · Women
10 Feb 2024 · T20
Recorded result
Too close to call
Model tested on 2,789 past T20 internationals it never saw: its favourite won 73% of the time.
A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.
Worked out only from matches played before this one. The chances come from each side’s results rating in this format (an Elo rating that moves after every result), who is at home, recent form and past meetings. We tested it on matches from 2024 onwards that it had never seen. Upsets happen.
Hong Kong started on 46%; Hong Kong batted first.
Hong Kong's chances ranged from 0% to 59% during the match (Nepal: 42% to 100%).
Tested on every ball of 1,050 matches from 2024 it never saw: error score 0.120, against 0.177 for the pre-match chance alone (lower is better).
A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.
Before a ball is bowled the chance comes from the pre-match model. After each ball we compare the score with what usually follows from that many overs and wickets left at this ground (like a rain-rule resource table) and, in a chase, with the runs still needed. Early on the pre-match view counts most; late on the situation does.
Innings 1
| Batter | Dismissal | R | B | 4s | 6s | SR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Natasha Milescaught · K Shrestha · Kabita Joshi 1 fours · 0 sixes | caught · K Shrestha · b Kabita Joshi | 11 | 19 | 1 | 0 | 57.89 |
| Mariko Hillcaught · K Shrestha · Puja Mahato 1 fours · 0 sixes | caught · K Shrestha · b Puja Mahato | 4 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 100.00 |
| Shanzeen Shahzadobstructing the field · K Kunwar 0 fours · 0 sixes | obstructing the field | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 |
| Kary Chancaught · K Shrestha · Rubina Chhetri 3 fours · 0 sixes | caught · K Shrestha · b Rubina Chhetri | 21 | 31 | 3 | 0 | 67.74 |
| MBA Lamploughbowled · Rubina Chhetri 0 fours · 0 sixes | bowled · b Rubina Chhetri | 9 | 15 | 0 | 0 | 60.00 |
| hit wicket · b Sita Rana Magar |
| 15 |
| 21 |
| 0 |
| 0 |
| 71.43 |
| M Bibirun out · K Shrestha · K Kunwar 0 fours · 0 sixes | run out · K Shrestha | 19 | 20 | 0 | 0 | 95.00 |
|---|
| Hiu Ying Cheungnot out 0 fours · 0 sixes | not out | 1* | 3 | 0 | 0 | 33.33 |
|---|
| Iqra Saharcaught and bowled · Puja Mahato 0 fours · 0 sixes | caught and bowled · b Puja Mahato | 1 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 33.33 |
|---|
| Chan Ka Mannot out 0 fours · 0 sixes | not out | 4* | 3 | 0 | 0 | 133.33 |
|---|
| Extras | byes: 1 · legbyes: 1 · wides: 6 · noballs: 0 · penalty: 0 | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bowler | Overs | M | R | W | Runs / 6 balls | WD | NB |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K Kunwar0 maidens · 2 wides · 0 no-balls | 4.0 | 0 | 13 | 0 | 3.25 | 2 | 0 |
| Puja Mahato1 maidens · 3 wides · 0 no-balls | 4.0 | 1 | 19 | 2 | 4.75 | 3 | 0 |
 Kabita Joshi0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 2.0 | 0 | 15 | 1 | 7.50 | 0 | 0 |
| I Barma0 maidens · 1 wides · 0 no-balls | 2.0 | 0 | 7 | 0 | 3.50 | 1 | 0 |
 Rubina Chhetri0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 4.0 | 0 | 15 | 2 | 3.75 | 0 | 0 |
 Sita Rana Magar0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 4.0 | 0 | 22 | 1 | 5.50 | 0 | 0 |
1-8 (Mariko Hill, 2.0) · 2-11 (Shanzeen Shahzad, 2.3) · 3-27 (Natasha Miles, 6.5) · 4-45 (Kary Chan, 10.2) · 5-52 (MBA Lamplough, 12.2) · 6-80 (Y Daswani, 17.4) · 7-85 (M Bibi, 18.4) · 8-87 (Iqra Sahar, 19.2)
| Over / set | Runs | Score |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | 2 | 2/0 |
| 2 | 6 | 8/1 |
| 3 | 4 | 12/2 |
| 4 | 0 | 12/2 |
| 5 | 3 | 15/2 |
| 6 | 8 | 23/2 |
| 7 | 4 | 27/3 |
| 8 | 3 | 30/3 |
| 9 | 11 | 41/3 |
| 10 | 4 | 45/3 |
| 11 | 2 | 47/4 |
| 12 | 5 | 52/4 |
| 13 | 3 | 55/5 |
| 14 | 3 | 58/5 |
| 15 | 5 | 63/5 |
| 16 | 6 | 69/5 |
| 17 | 5 | 74/5 |
| 18 | 8 | 82/6 |
| 19 | 5 | 87/7 |
| 20 | 6 | 93/8 |
Kabita Joshi: Surajthapa1207 · CC BY-SA 4.0
Sita Rana Magar: Surajthapa1207 · CC BY-SA 4.0
Rubina Chhetri: Surajthapa1207 · CC BY-SA 4.0
Statistics are calculated from imported deliveries. Super overs are separate; source corrections may change recorded figures.
