Lucknow Super GiantsversusMumbai Indians

17 May 2024 · T20

Wankhede Stadium, Mumbai · Venue photograph

Recorded result

Lucknow Super Giants won by 18 runs

Lucknow Super Giants20.0 overs214/6 Mumbai Indians20.0 overs196/6 Wankhede Stadium, Mumbai ↗

How the win chances moved

Ball by ball

Lucknow Super Giants started on 51%; Lucknow Super Giants batted first.

Lucknow Super Giants’s chance of winning (%) · Mumbai Indians is the rest

Lucknow Super Giants's chances ranged from 36% to 100% during the match (Mumbai Indians: 0% to 64%).

Biggest swings

0.3: N Thushara to D Padikkal, D Padikkal out. Mumbai Indians up from 49% to 63%.
2nd inns 8.4: Naveen-ul-Haq to D Brevis, D Brevis out. Lucknow Super Giants up from 50% to 65%.
2nd inns 9.2: KH Pandya to SA Yadav, SA Yadav out. Lucknow Super Giants up from 68% to 79%.

Tested on every ball of 1,336 matches from 2024 it never saw: error score 0.175, against 0.247 for the pre-match chance alone (lower is better).

A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.

How this works

Before a ball is bowled the chance comes from the pre-match model. After each ball we compare the score with what usually follows from that many overs and wickets left at this ground (like a rain-rule resource table) and, in a chase, with the runs still needed. Early on the pre-match view counts most; late on the situation does.

Lucknow Super Giants214/6 Mumbai Indians196/6

Innings 1