Hong KongversusPapua New Guinea

12 Mar 2024 · T20

Recorded result

Papua New Guinea won by 10 wickets

Hong Kong18.3 overs121/10 Papua New Guinea12.4 overs124/0 Mission Road Ground, Mong Kok, Hong Kong ↗

Win chances before this match

Before the toss

Hong Kong more likely to win

58%Hong Kong42%Papua New Guinea

Why

Hong Kong are playing at home in Hong Kong
In the last 3 T20 internationals between these sides, Hong Kong won 2 and Papua New Guinea won 1
On results in T20 internationals so far, Papua New Guinea rate stronger than Hong Kong (1,558 vs 1,547 on our results rating)

Model tested on 2,789 past T20 internationals it never saw: its favourite won 73% of the time.

A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.

How this works

Worked out only from matches played before this one. The chances come from each side’s results rating in this format (an Elo rating that moves after every result), who is at home, recent form and past meetings. We tested it on matches from 2024 onwards that it had never seen. Upsets happen.

How the win chances moved

Ball by ball

Hong Kong started on 57%; Hong Kong batted first.

Hong Kong’s chance of winning (%) · Papua New Guinea is the rest

Hong Kong's chances ranged from 0% to 59% during the match (Papua New Guinea: 41% to 100%).

Biggest swings

1.6: A Nao to M Coetzee, M Coetzee out. Papua New Guinea up from 44% to 56%.
2.1: KV Morea to Nizakat Khan, Nizakat Khan out. Papua New Guinea up from 56% to 66%.
3.6: A Nao to Aizaz Khan, Aizaz Khan out. Papua New Guinea up from 74% to 86%.

Tested on every ball of 1,498 matches from 2024 it never saw: error score 0.130, against 0.197 for the pre-match chance alone (lower is better).

A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.

How this works

Before a ball is bowled the chance comes from the pre-match model. After each ball we compare the score with what usually follows from that many overs and wickets left at this ground (like a rain-rule resource table) and, in a chase, with the runs still needed. Early on the pre-match view counts most; late on the situation does.

Hong Kong121/10 Papua New Guinea124/0

Innings 1

Hong Kong

121/1018.3 overs

Batting, bowling & fall of wickets

Hong Kong batting
Batter	Dismissal	R	B	4s	6s	SR
Martin Coetzeecaught · Kiplin Doriga · Alei Nao 0 fours · 0 sixes	caught · Kiplin Doriga · b Alei Nao	3	8	0	0	37.50
Nizakat Khanbowled · Kabua Morea 0 fours · 0 sixes	bowled · b Kabua Morea	2	6	0	0	33.33
Anshuman Rathbowled · Kabua Morea 0 fours · 0 sixes	bowled · b Kabua Morea	1	2	0	0	50.00
Babar Hayatrun out · Sese Bau · Chad Soper 0 fours · 1 sixes	run out · Sese Bau	12	15	0	1	80.00
Aizaz Khancaught · Hila Vare · Alei Nao 0 fours · 0 sixes	caught · Hila Vare · b Alei Nao	0	3	0	0	0.00

Bowler	Overs	M	R	W	Runs / 6 balls	WD	NB
Kabua Morea0 maidens · 1 wides · 1 no-balls	4.0	0	35	2	8.75	1	1
Alei Nao0 maidens · 2 wides · 0 no-balls	3.3	0	16	2	4.57	2	0
Chad Soper0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls	4.0	0	29	0	7.25	0	0
Assad Vala1 maidens · 1 wides · 0 no-balls	4.0	1	13	2	3.25	1	0
John Kariko0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls	1.0	0	15	0	15.00	0	0
Sese Bau0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls	2.0	0	10	2	5.00	0	0

Over / set	Runs	Score
1	4	4/0
2	3	7/1
3	9	16/3
4	1	17/4
5	3	20/4
6	6	26/4
7	4	30/5
8	0	30/6
9	3	33/6
10	2	35/6
11	15	50/6
12	6	56/7
13	12	68/7
14	6	74/7
15	10	84/7
16	9	93/8
17	21	114/8
18	1	115/9
19	6	121/10

Bringing the game to you…

Help make cricket’s story more accurate.