Trinbago Knight RidersversusSt Kitts and Nevis Patriots

1 Sept 2025 · T20

Brian Lara Stadium, Tarouba, Trinidad · Venue photograph

Recorded result

Trinbago Knight Riders won by 12 runs

Trinbago Knight Riders20.0 overs179/6 St Kitts and Nevis Patriots20.0 overs167/6 Brian Lara Stadium, Tarouba, Trinidad ↗

How the win chances moved

Ball by ball

Trinbago Knight Riders started on 66%; Trinbago Knight Riders batted first.

Trinbago Knight Riders’s chance of winning (%) · St Kitts and Nevis Patriots is the rest

Trinbago Knight Riders's chances ranged from 29% to 100% during the match (St Kitts and Nevis Patriots: 1% to 71%).

Biggest swings

2nd inns 14.6: Mohammad Amir to A Athanaze, A Athanaze out. Trinbago Knight Riders up from 34% to 48%.
2nd inns 15.4: Usman Tariq to ADS Fletcher, ADS Fletcher out. Trinbago Knight Riders up from 56% to 68%.
2nd inns 16.5: N Edward to KR Mayers, KR Mayers out. Trinbago Knight Riders up from 64% to 76%.

Tested on every ball of 1,336 matches from 2024 it never saw: error score 0.175, against 0.247 for the pre-match chance alone (lower is better).

A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.

How this works

Before a ball is bowled the chance comes from the pre-match model. After each ball we compare the score with what usually follows from that many overs and wickets left at this ground (like a rain-rule resource table) and, in a chase, with the runs still needed. Early on the pre-match view counts most; late on the situation does.

Trinbago Knight Riders179/6 St Kitts and Nevis Patriots167/6

Innings 1