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ICC Men's T20 World Cup Sub Regional Africa Qualifier · 2024/25 · Men
22 Oct 2024 · T20
Recorded result
Zimbabwe more likely to win
Model tested on 2,789 past T20 internationals it never saw: its favourite won 73% of the time.
A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.
Worked out only from matches played before this one. The chances come from each side’s results rating in this format (an Elo rating that moves after every result), who is at home, recent form and past meetings. We tested it on matches from 2024 onwards that it had never seen. Upsets happen.
Zimbabwe started on 79%; Zimbabwe batted first.
Zimbabwe's chances ranged from 71% to 100% during the match (Rwanda: 0% to 29%).
Tested on every ball of 1,498 matches from 2024 it never saw: error score 0.130, against 0.197 for the pre-match chance alone (lower is better).
A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.
Before a ball is bowled the chance comes from the pre-match model. After each ball we compare the score with what usually follows from that many overs and wickets left at this ground (like a rain-rule resource table) and, in a chase, with the runs still needed. Early on the pre-match view counts most; late on the situation does.
Innings 1
| Batter | Dismissal | R | B | 4s | 6s | SR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brian Bennettlbw · Z Bimenyimana 0 fours · 0 sixes | lbw · b Z Bimenyimana | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 |
| Tadiwanashe Marumanicaught · W Niyitanga · Muhammad Nadir 4 fours · 4 sixes | caught · W Niyitanga · b Muhammad Nadir | 44 | 18 | 4 | 4 | 244.44 |
| Dion Myerscaught · W Niyitanga · Muhammad Nadir 11 fours · 6 sixes | caught · W Niyitanga · b Muhammad Nadir | 96 | 45 | 11 | 6 | 213.33 |
 Sikandar Razastumped · D Ndikubwimana · Muhammad Nadir0 fours · 0 sixes | stumped · D Ndikubwimana · b Muhammad Nadir | 3 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 60.00 |
| Ryan Burlcaught · W Niyitanga · I Ntirenganya 0 fours · 2 sixes |
| 19 |
| 11 |
| 0 |
| 2 |
| 172.73 |
 Clive Madandecaught · Z Bimenyimana · C Rububagumya5 fours · 1 sixes | caught · Z Bimenyimana · b C Rububagumya | 35 | 20 | 5 | 1 | 175.00 |
|---|
| Wesley Madheverecaught · E Rukiriza · C Rububagumya 0 fours · 0 sixes | caught · E Rukiriza · b C Rububagumya | 8 | 8 | 0 | 0 | 100.00 |
|---|
| Tashinga Musekiwanot out 1 fours · 0 sixes | not out | 12* | 8 | 1 | 0 | 150.00 |
|---|
| Blessing Muzarabanilbw · M Akayezu 0 fours · 0 sixes | lbw · b M Akayezu | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 |
|---|
| Richard Ngaravanot out 1 fours · 0 sixes | not out | 8* | 5 | 1 | 0 | 160.00 |
|---|
| Extras | byes: 5 · legbyes: 3 · wides: 4 · noballs: 3 · penalty: 0 | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bowler | Overs | M | R | W | Runs / 6 balls | WD | NB |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Z Bimenyimana0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 4.0 | 0 | 49 | 1 | 12.25 | 0 | 0 |
| I Ntirenganya0 maidens · 1 wides · 0 no-balls | 4.0 | 0 | 36 | 1 | 9.00 | 1 | 0 |
| M Akayezu0 maidens · 0 wides · 2 no-balls | 3.0 | 0 | 44 | 1 | 14.67 | 0 | 2 |
| Muhammad Nadir0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 4.0 | 0 | 47 | 3 | 11.75 | 0 | 0 |
| E Rukiriza0 maidens · 1 wides · 0 no-balls | 1.0 | 0 | 21 | 0 | 21.00 | 1 | 0 |
| C Rububagumya0 maidens · 2 wides · 1 no-balls | 4.0 | 0 | 35 | 2 | 8.75 | 2 | 1 |
1-0 (Brian Bennett, 0.1) · 2-129 (Tadiwanashe Marumani, 8.3) · 3-141 (Sikandar Raza, 10.2) · 4-168 (Dion Myers, 12.4) · 5-172 (Ryan Burl, 13.5) · 6-214 (Wesley Madhevere, 17.2) · 7-217 (Clive Madande, 17.5) · 8-220 (Blessing Muzarabani, 18.3)
| Over / set | Runs | Score |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | 5 | 5/1 |
| 2 | 17 | 22/1 |
| 3 | 14 | 36/1 |
| 4 | 15 | 51/1 |
| 5 | 12 | 63/1 |
| 6 | 24 | 87/1 |
| 7 | 20 | 107/1 |
| 8 | 21 | 128/1 |
| 9 | 5 | 133/2 |
| 10 | 8 | 141/2 |
| 11 | 9 | 150/3 |
| 12 | 5 | 155/3 |
| 13 | 14 | 169/4 |
| 14 | 3 | 172/5 |
| 15 | 11 | 183/5 |
| 16 | 10 | 193/5 |
| 17 | 19 | 212/5 |
| 18 | 5 | 217/7 |
| 19 | 5 | 222/8 |
| 20 | 18 | 240/8 |
Clive Madande: Amuzujoe · CC BY-SA 4.0
Sikandar Raza: Storm machine · CC BY-SA 4.0
Statistics are calculated from imported deliveries. Super overs are separate; source corrections may change recorded figures.
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