ThailandversusNamibia

8 Dec 2024 · T20

Recorded result

Thailand won by 30 runs

Thailand18.5 overs72/10 Namibia16.2 overs42/10 Mission Road Ground, Mong Kok, Hong Kong ↗

Win chances before this match

Before the toss

Thailand more likely to win

65%Thailand35%Namibia

Why

In the last 2 T20 internationals between these sides, Thailand won 2 and Namibia won 0
On results in T20 internationals so far, Thailand rate stronger than Namibia (1,565 vs 1,518 on our results rating)

Model tested on 2,789 past T20 internationals it never saw: its favourite won 73% of the time.

A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.

How this works

Worked out only from matches played before this one. The chances come from each side’s results rating in this format (an Elo rating that moves after every result), who is at home, recent form and past meetings. We tested it on matches from 2024 onwards that it had never seen. Upsets happen.

How the win chances moved

Ball by ball

Thailand started on 64%; Thailand batted first.

Thailand’s chance of winning (%) · Namibia is the rest

Thailand's chances ranged from 7% to 100% during the match (Namibia: 1% to 93%).

Biggest swings

2nd inns 8.5: N Boochatham to JA Diergaardt, JA Diergaardt out. Thailand up from 38% to 65%.
2nd inns 9.5: T Putthawong to KA Green, KA Green out. Thailand up from 62% to 81%.
2nd inns 12.4: O Kamchomphu to M Mwatile, M Mwatile out. Thailand up from 77% to 92%.

Tested on every ball of 1,050 matches from 2024 it never saw: error score 0.120, against 0.177 for the pre-match chance alone (lower is better).

A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.

How this works

Before a ball is bowled the chance comes from the pre-match model. After each ball we compare the score with what usually follows from that many overs and wickets left at this ground (like a rain-rule resource table) and, in a chase, with the runs still needed. Early on the pre-match view counts most; late on the situation does.

Thailand72/10 Namibia42/10

Innings 1

Thailand

72/1018.5 overs

Batting, bowling & fall of wickets

Thailand batting
Batter	Dismissal	R	B	4s	6s	SR
Nattaya Boochathamcaught · Sune Wittmann · M Mwatile 0 fours · 0 sixes	caught · Sune Wittmann · b M Mwatile	0	2	0	0	0.00
Nannapat Koncharoenkaicaught · M Gorases · M Mwatile 0 fours · 0 sixes	caught · M Gorases · b M Mwatile	0	1	0	0	0.00
Aphisara Suwanchonrathicaught · Sune Wittmann · S Tuhadeleni 1 fours · 0 sixes	caught · Sune Wittmann · b S Tuhadeleni	7	12	1	0	58.33
Naruemol Chaiwaicaught · M Mwatile · S Tuhadeleni 0 fours · 0 sixes	caught

Bowler	Overs	M	R	W	Runs / 6 balls	WD
M Mwatile0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls	4.0	0	19	2	4.75	0
Kayleen Green0 maidens · 5 wides · 0 no-balls	4.0	0	16	1	4.00	5
S Tuhadeleni0 maidens · 1 wides · 0 no-balls	4.0	0	18	3	4.50	1
Arrasta Diergaardt1 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls	4.0	1	7	1	1.75	0
N Benjamin0 maidens · 3 wides · 0 no-balls	1.0	0	5	0	5.00	3
Sune Wittmann0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls	1.5	0	2	2	1.09	0

Over / set	Runs	Score
1	5	5/2
2	4	9/2
3	5	14/2
4	2	16/4
5	2	18/4
6	3	21/5
7	2	23/5
8	4	27/6
9	5	32/7
10	3	35/7
11	9	44/7
12	6	50/7
13	8	58/7
14	2	60/7
15	5	65/7
16	3	68/8
17	2	70/9
18	0	70/9
19	2	72/10

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