BahamasversusSuriname

14 Dec 2024 · T20

Recorded result

Bahamas won by 26 runs

Bahamas19.2 overs97/10 Suriname17.3 overs71/10 Belgrano Athletic Club Ground, Buenos Aires ↗

Win chances before this match

Before the toss

Bahamas more likely to win

80%Bahamas20%Suriname

Why

On results in T20 internationals so far, Bahamas rate stronger than Suriname (1,400 vs 1,172 on our results rating)

Model tested on 2,789 past T20 internationals it never saw: its favourite won 73% of the time.

A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.

How this works

Worked out only from matches played before this one. The chances come from each side’s results rating in this format (an Elo rating that moves after every result), who is at home, recent form and past meetings. We tested it on matches from 2024 onwards that it had never seen. Upsets happen.

How the win chances moved

Ball by ball

Bahamas started on 79%; Bahamas batted first.

Bahamas’s chance of winning (%) · Suriname is the rest

Bahamas's chances ranged from 40% to 99% during the match (Suriname: 1% to 60%).

Biggest swings

2nd inns 2.4: K Hinds to V Hirlal, V Hirlal out. Bahamas up from 52% to 65%.
2nd inns 10.6: DG Weakley to K Jaikaran, K Jaikaran out. Bahamas up from 73% to 87%.
2nd inns 14.5: K Hinds to V Shaw, K Hardat out. Bahamas up from 80% to 94%.

Tested on every ball of 1,498 matches from 2024 it never saw: error score 0.130, against 0.197 for the pre-match chance alone (lower is better).

A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.

How this works

Before a ball is bowled the chance comes from the pre-match model. After each ball we compare the score with what usually follows from that many overs and wickets left at this ground (like a rain-rule resource table) and, in a chase, with the runs still needed. Early on the pre-match view counts most; late on the situation does.

Bahamas97/10 Suriname71/10

Innings 1

Bahamas

97/1019.2 overs

Batting, bowling & fall of wickets

Bahamas batting
Batter	Dismissal	R	B	4s	6s	SR
Marc Taylorbowled · K Jaikaran 0 fours · 0 sixes	bowled · b K Jaikaran	0	2	0	0	0.00
Festus Benncaught · K Hardat · YP Dayal 4 fours · 0 sixes	caught · K Hardat · b YP Dayal	25	20	4	0	125.00
E Duffbowled · XSD Smith 3 fours · 0 sixes	bowled · b XSD Smith	31	39	3	0	79.49
J Jemisoncaught · Gavin Singh · YP Dayal 0 fours · 0 sixes	caught · Gavin Singh · b YP Dayal	0	1	0	0	0.00
K Hindscaught and bowled · XSD Smith 1 fours · 2 sixes	caught and bowled · b XSD Smith	20	24	1	2	83.33
D Wheatleycaught · YP Dayal · Arun Gokoel0 fours · 0 sixes

Bowler	Overs	M	R	W	Runs / 6 balls	WD
K Jaikaran0 maidens · 2 wides · 0 no-balls	4.0	0	22	3	5.50	2
Gavin Singh0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls	3.2	0	13	2	3.90	0
Arun Gokoel1 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls	4.0	1	21	1	5.25	0
YP Dayal0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls	4.0	0	26	2	6.50	0
XSD Smith1 maidens · 3 wides · 0 no-balls	4.0	1	10	2	2.50	3

Over / set	Runs	Score
1	6	6/1
2	6	12/1
3	9	21/1
4	3	24/1
5	6	30/1
6	3	33/1
7	13	46/1
8	7	53/3
9	3	56/3
10	7	63/3
11	6	69/3
12	10	79/3
13	1	80/3
14	3	83/3
15	1	84/5
16	2	86/6
17	4	90/7
18	3	93/8
19	3	96/9
20	1	97/10

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