Melbourne RenegadesversusHobart Hurricanes

29 Dec 2025 · T20

Bellerive Oval, Hobart · Venue photograph

Recorded result

Hobart Hurricanes won by 4 wickets

Melbourne Renegades20.0 overs162/9 Hobart Hurricanes19.0 overs163/6 Bellerive Oval, Hobart ↗

How the win chances moved

Ball by ball

Melbourne Renegades started on 35%; Melbourne Renegades batted first.

Melbourne Renegades’s chance of winning (%) · Hobart Hurricanes is the rest

Melbourne Renegades's chances ranged from 2% to 65% during the match (Hobart Hurricanes: 35% to 98%).

Biggest swings

2nd inns 11.2: GS Sandhu to BJ Webster, BJ Webster out. Melbourne Renegades up from 32% to 48%.
2nd inns 12.3: A Zampa to Nikhil Chaudhary, Nikhil Chaudhary out. Melbourne Renegades up from 42% to 65%.
2nd inns 17.5: AJ Tye to MS Wade, six by MS Wade. Hobart Hurricanes up from 45% to 67%.

Tested on every ball of 1,336 matches from 2024 it never saw: error score 0.175, against 0.247 for the pre-match chance alone (lower is better).

A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.

How this works

Before a ball is bowled the chance comes from the pre-match model. After each ball we compare the score with what usually follows from that many overs and wickets left at this ground (like a rain-rule resource table) and, in a chase, with the runs still needed. Early on the pre-match view counts most; late on the situation does.

Melbourne Renegades162/9 Hobart Hurricanes163/6

Innings 1