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Photo: RIDHVAN SHARMA
Original photograph ↗ · CC BY-SA 4.0
Resized and converted to WebP; original framing preserved.
Historical photograph; current appearance and conditions may differ.
Sri Lanka tour of Zimbabwe · 2025 · Men
29 Aug 2025 · ODI
Harare Sports Club · Venue photographRecorded result
Sri Lanka more likely to win
Model tested on 501 past ODIs it never saw: its favourite won 63% of the time.
A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.
Worked out only from matches played before this one. The chances come from each side’s results rating in this format (an Elo rating that moves after every result), who is at home, recent form and past meetings. We tested it on matches from 2024 onwards that it had never seen. Upsets happen.
Sri Lanka started on 67%; Sri Lanka batted first.
Innings 1
| Batter | Dismissal | R | B | 4s | 6s | SR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Pathum Nissankacaught · C Madande · Blessing Muzarabani 12 fours · 0 sixes | caught · C Madande · b Blessing Muzarabani | 76 | 92 | 12 | 0 | 82.61 |
| Nishan Madushkacaught · Sikandar Raza · Richard Ngarava 0 fours · 0 sixes | caught · Sikandar Raza · b Richard Ngarava | 0 | 13 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 |
| Kusal Mendiscaught · Wesley Madhevere · Sean Williams 3 fours · 0 sixes | caught · Wesley Madhevere · b Sean Williams | 38 | 63 | 3 | 0 | 60.32 |
| Sadeera Samarawickramalbw · Sikandar Raza 5 fours · 0 sixes | lbw · b Sikandar Raza | 35 | 40 | 5 | 0 | 87.50 |
| Charith Asalankacaught · Sikandar Raza · Trevor Gwandu 0 fours · 0 sixes | caught · Sikandar Raza · b Trevor Gwandu | 6 | 9 | 0 | 0 |
Sri Lanka's chances ranged from 22% to 96% during the match (Zimbabwe: 4% to 79%).
Tested on every ball of 247 matches from 2024 it never saw: error score 0.171, against 0.234 for the pre-match chance alone (lower is better).
A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.
Before a ball is bowled the chance comes from the pre-match model. After each ball we compare the score with what usually follows from that many overs and wickets left at this ground (like a rain-rule resource table) and, in a chase, with the runs still needed. Early on the pre-match view counts most; late on the situation does.
| 66.67 |
 Janith Liyanagenot out6 fours · 3 sixes | not out | 70* | 47 | 6 | 3 | 148.94 |
|---|
| Kamindu Mendisbowled · Richard Ngarava 4 fours · 2 sixes | bowled · b Richard Ngarava | 57 | 36 | 4 | 2 | 158.33 |
|---|
| Extras | byes: 1 · legbyes: 6 · wides: 9 · noballs: 0 · penalty: 0 | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bowler | Overs | M | R | W | Runs / 6 balls | WD | NB |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Richard Ngarava2 maidens · 2 wides · 0 no-balls | 7.4 | 2 | 34 | 2 | 4.43 | 2 | 0 |
| Blessing Muzarabani1 maidens · 1 wides · 0 no-balls | 10.0 | 1 | 65 | 1 | 6.50 | 1 | 0 |
| Trevor Gwandu0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 6.2 | 0 | 61 | 1 | 9.63 | 0 | 0 |
| Brad Evans0 maidens · 1 wides · 0 no-balls | 10.0 | 0 | 57 | 0 | 5.70 | 1 | 0 |
 Sikandar Raza0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 10.0 | 0 | 48 | 1 | 4.80 | 0 | 0 |
 Sean Williams0 maidens · 5 wides · 0 no-balls | 6.0 | 0 | 26 | 1 | 4.33 | 5 | 0 |
1-9 (Nishan Madushka, 5.0) · 2-109 (Kusal Mendis, 26.2) · 3-139 (Pathum Nissanka, 32.4) · 4-161 (Sadeera Samarawickrama, 36.0) · 5-161 (Charith Asalanka, 36.1) · 6-298 (Kamindu Mendis, 50.0)
| Over / set | Runs | Score |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | 5 | 5/0 |
| 2 | 4 | 9/0 |
| 3 | 0 | 9/0 |
| 4 | 0 | 9/0 |
| 5 | 0 | 9/1 |
| 6 | 2 | 11/1 |
| 7 | 2 | 13/1 |
| 8 | 3 | 16/1 |
| 9 | 5 | 21/1 |
| 10 | 8 | 29/1 |
| 11 | 6 | 35/1 |
| 12 | 5 | 40/1 |
| 13 | 2 | 42/1 |
| 14 | 3 | 45/1 |
| 15 | 5 | 50/1 |
| 16 | 10 | 60/1 |
| 17 | 6 | 66/1 |
| 18 | 4 | 70/1 |
| 19 | 5 | 75/1 |
| 20 | 6 | 81/1 |
| 21 | 5 | 86/1 |
| 22 | 2 | 88/1 |
| 23 | 6 | 94/1 |
| 24 | 3 | 97/1 |
| 25 | 5 | 102/1 |
| 26 | 7 | 109/1 |
| 27 | 4 | 113/2 |
| 28 | 2 | 115/2 |
| 29 | 1 | 116/2 |
| 30 | 5 | 121/2 |
| 31 | 6 | 127/2 |
| 32 | 4 | 131/2 |
| 33 | 8 | 139/3 |
| 34 | 6 | 145/3 |
| 35 | 10 | 155/3 |
| 36 | 6 | 161/4 |
| 37 | 6 | 167/5 |
| 38 | 7 | 174/5 |
| 39 | 4 | 178/5 |
| 40 | 7 | 185/5 |
| 41 | 8 | 193/5 |
| 42 | 5 | 198/5 |
| 43 | 9 | 207/5 |
| 44 | 10 | 217/5 |
| 45 | 16 | 233/5 |
| 46 | 12 | 245/5 |
| 47 | 12 | 257/5 |
| 48 | 23 | 280/5 |
| 49 | 6 | 286/5 |
| 50 | 12 | 298/6 |
Brendan Taylor: The Madras · CC BY-SA 3.0
Janith Liyanage: Neb · CC BY-SA 4.0
Sikandar Raza: Storm machine · CC BY-SA 4.0
Sean Williams: Larry D. Moore · CC BY 4.0
Statistics are calculated from imported deliveries. Super overs are separate; source corrections may change recorded figures.
