West IndiesversusAustralia

25 Jul 2025 · T20

Warner Park, St Kitts · Venue photograph

Recorded result

Australia won by 6 wickets

West Indies20.0 overs214/4 Australia16.1 overs215/4 Warner Park, St Kitts ↗

Win chances before this match

Before the toss

Australia more likely to win

17%West Indies83%Australia

Why

On results in T20 internationals so far, Australia rate stronger than West Indies (1,715 vs 1,488 on our results rating)
In the last 10 T20 internationals between these sides, Australia won 8 and West Indies won 2
West Indies are playing at home in Saint Kitts and Nevis

Model tested on 2,789 past T20 internationals it never saw: its favourite won 73% of the time.

A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.

How this works

Worked out only from matches played before this one. The chances come from each side’s results rating in this format (an Elo rating that moves after every result), who is at home, recent form and past meetings. We tested it on matches from 2024 onwards that it had never seen. Upsets happen.

How the win chances moved

Ball by ball

West Indies started on 15%; West Indies batted first.

West Indies’s chance of winning (%) · Australia is the rest

West Indies's chances ranged from 0% to 82% during the match (Australia: 19% to 100%).

Biggest swings

2nd inns 3.3: R Shepherd to JP Inglis, JP Inglis out. West Indies up from 41% to 57%.
2nd inns 5.5: JO Holder to MR Marsh, MR Marsh out. West Indies up from 56% to 71%.
2nd inns 8.5: R Shepherd to C Green, C Green out. West Indies up from 67% to 82%.

Tested on every ball of 1,498 matches from 2024 it never saw: error score 0.130, against 0.197 for the pre-match chance alone (lower is better).

A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.

How this works

Before a ball is bowled the chance comes from the pre-match model. After each ball we compare the score with what usually follows from that many overs and wickets left at this ground (like a rain-rule resource table) and, in a chase, with the runs still needed. Early on the pre-match view counts most; late on the situation does.

West Indies214/4 Australia215/4

Innings 1

West Indies

214/420.0 overs

Batting, bowling & fall of wickets

West Indies batting
Batter	Dismissal	R	B	4s	6s	SR
Brandon Kingcaught · Sean Abbott · Mitchell Owen 3 fours · 6 sixes	caught · Sean Abbott · b Mitchell Owen	62	36	3	6	172.22
Shai Hopenot out 8 fours · 6 sixes	not out	102*	57	8	6	178.95
Shimron Hetmyercaught · Cameron Green · Adam Zampa 0 fours · 1 sixes	caught · Cameron Green · b Adam Zampa	9	6	0	1	150.00
Sherfane Rutherfordrun out · Tim David · Ben Dwarshuis 2 fours · 0 sixes	run out · Tim David	12	13	2	0	92.31
Rovman Powell

Bowler	Overs	R	W	Runs / 6 balls	WD
Ben Dwarshuis0 maidens · 1 wides · 0 no-balls	4.0	46	0	11.50	1
Sean Abbott0 maidens · 2 wides · 0 no-balls	4.0	21	0	5.25	2
Nathan Ellis0 maidens · 1 wides · 0 no-balls	4.0	37	1	9.25	1
Glenn Maxwell0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls	2.0	31	0	15.50	0
Adam Zampa0 maidens · 1 wides · 0 no-balls	4.0	51	1	12.75	1
Mitchell Owen0 maidens · 1 wides · 0 no-balls	2.0	23	1	11.50	1

Over / set	Runs	Score
1	8	8/0
2	2	10/0
3	15	25/0
4	10	35/0
5	12	47/0
6	19	66/0
7	12	78/0
8	13	91/0
9	3	94/0
10	12	106/0
11	11	117/0
12	10	127/1
13	19	146/1
14	10	156/1
15	9	165/2
16	11	176/2
17	10	186/2
18	6	192/2
19	12	204/3
20	10	214/4

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