IndiaversusAustralia

9 Jan 2024 · T20

Dr DY Patil Sports Academy, Navi Mumbai · Venue photograph

Recorded result

Australia won by 7 wickets

India20.0 overs147/6 Australia18.4 overs149/3 Dr DY Patil Sports Academy, Navi Mumbai ↗

Win chances before this match

Before the toss

Australia more likely to win

30%India70%Australia

Why

On results in T20 internationals so far, Australia rate stronger than India (1,735 vs 1,632 on our results rating)
In the last 10 T20 internationals between these sides, Australia won 8 and India won 2
India are playing at home in India

Model tested on 2,789 past T20 internationals it never saw: its favourite won 73% of the time.

A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.

How this works

Worked out only from matches played before this one. The chances come from each side’s results rating in this format (an Elo rating that moves after every result), who is at home, recent form and past meetings. We tested it on matches from 2024 onwards that it had never seen. Upsets happen.

How the win chances moved

Ball by ball

India started on 26%; India batted first.

India’s chance of winning (%) · Australia is the rest

India's chances ranged from 0% to 43% during the match (Australia: 57% to 100%).

Biggest swings

4.4: ML Schutt to Shafali Verma, Shafali Verma out. Australia up from 57% to 65%.
8.6: G Wareham to S Mandhana, S Mandhana out. Australia up from 67% to 73%.
9.5: A Sutherland to H Kaur, H Kaur out. Australia up from 74% to 80%.

Tested on every ball of 1,050 matches from 2024 it never saw: error score 0.120, against 0.177 for the pre-match chance alone (lower is better).

A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.

How this works

Before a ball is bowled the chance comes from the pre-match model. After each ball we compare the score with what usually follows from that many overs and wickets left at this ground (like a rain-rule resource table) and, in a chase, with the runs still needed. Early on the pre-match view counts most; late on the situation does.

India147/6 Australia149/3

Innings 1

India

147/620.0 overs

Batting, bowling & fall of wickets

India batting
Batter	Dismissal	R	B	4s	6s	SR
Shafali Vermacaught · Alyssa Healy · Megan Schutt 6 fours · 0 sixes	caught · Alyssa Healy · b Megan Schutt	26	17	6	0	152.94
Smriti Mandhanacaught · Ashleigh Gardner · Georgia Wareham 2 fours · 1 sixes	caught · Ashleigh Gardner · b Georgia Wareham	29	28	2	1	103.57
Jemimah Rodriguescaught · Georgia Wareham · Annabel Sutherland 0 fours · 0 sixes	caught · Georgia Wareham · b Annabel Sutherland	2	7	0	0	28.57

Bowler	Overs	R	W	Runs / 6 balls	WD
Megan Schutt0 maidens · 1 wides · 0 no-balls	4.0	36	1	9.00	1
Kim Garth0 maidens · 5 wides · 0 no-balls	4.0	31	0	7.75	5
Ashleigh Gardner0 maidens · 5 wides · 0 no-balls	4.0	40	1	10.00	5
Annabel Sutherland0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls	4.0	12	2	3.00	0
Georgia Wareham0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls	4.0	24	2	6.00	0

Over / set	Runs	Score
1	7	7/0
2	7	14/0
3	6	20/0
4	12	32/0
5	7	39/1
6	12	51/1
7	6	57/1
8	3	60/2
9	4	64/3
10	2	66/4
11	6	72/4
12	5	77/4
13	14	91/4
14	6	97/4
15	3	100/5
16	13	113/5
17	11	124/5
18	2	126/5
19	9	135/5
20	12	147/6

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