BrazilversusBelize

24 Jun 2026 · T20

Recorded result

Belize won by 8 wickets

Brazil20.0 overs133/9 Belize17.5 overs134/2 White Hill Field, Sandys Parish ↗

Win chances before this match

Before the toss

Belize more likely to win

42%Brazil58%Belize

Why

In the last 1 T20 internationals between these sides, Belize won 1 and Brazil won 0
On results in T20 internationals so far, Belize rate stronger than Brazil (1,320 vs 1,300 on our results rating)

Model tested on 2,789 past T20 internationals it never saw: its favourite won 73% of the time.

A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.

How this works

Worked out only from matches played before this one. The chances come from each side’s results rating in this format (an Elo rating that moves after every result), who is at home, recent form and past meetings. We tested it on matches from 2024 onwards that it had never seen. Upsets happen.

How the win chances moved

Ball by ball

Brazil started on 40%; Brazil batted first.

Brazil’s chance of winning (%) · Belize is the rest

Brazil's chances ranged from 0% to 53% during the match (Belize: 48% to 100%).

Biggest swings

1.1: ML Castillo to LH Rodrigues, LH Rodrigues out. Belize up from 48% to 59%.
3.3: ML Castillo to Yasar Haroon, Yasar Haroon out. Belize up from 64% to 73%.
2nd inns 7.4: G Oliveira to L Bonner, L Bonner out. Brazil up from 20% to 28%.

Tested on every ball of 1,498 matches from 2024 it never saw: error score 0.130, against 0.197 for the pre-match chance alone (lower is better).

A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.

How this works

Before a ball is bowled the chance comes from the pre-match model. After each ball we compare the score with what usually follows from that many overs and wickets left at this ground (like a rain-rule resource table) and, in a chase, with the runs still needed. Early on the pre-match view counts most; late on the situation does.

Brazil133/9 Belize134/2

Innings 1

Brazil

133/920.0 overs

Batting, bowling & fall of wickets

Brazil batting
Batter	Dismissal	R	B	4s	6s	SR
LF Mullercaught · R Broaster · O Casasola 3 fours · 2 sixes	caught · R Broaster · b O Casasola	46	36	3	2	127.78
LH Rodriguesbowled · ML Castillo 0 fours · 0 sixes	bowled · b ML Castillo	0	1	0	0	0.00
Yasar Haroonbowled · ML Castillo 1 fours · 0 sixes	bowled · b ML Castillo	4	11	1	0	36.36
MFI Assuncaolbw · T Moses 2 fours · 1 sixes	lbw · b T Moses	24	20	2	1	120.00
CC Machadocaught · AA Banner · T Moses 0 fours · 0 sixes	caught · AA Banner · b T Moses	9	17	0	0	52.94
LG Morascaught · TAW Patterson · O Casasola0 fours · 0 sixes

Bowler	Overs	M	R	W	Runs / 6 balls	WD
L Bonner0 maidens · 1 wides · 0 no-balls	4.0	0	26	1	6.50	1
ML Castillo1 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls	4.0	1	16	3	4.00	0
NN Banner0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls	1.0	0	11	0	11.00	0
TAW Patterson0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls	1.0	0	14	0	14.00	0
AA Banner0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls	2.0	0	13	0	6.50	0
T Moses0 maidens · 1 wides · 0 no-balls	4.0	0	23	2	5.75	1
O Casasola0 maidens · 6 wides · 0 no-balls	4.0	0	22	2	5.50	6

Over / set	Runs	Score
1	14	14/0
2	0	14/1
3	1	15/1
4	7	22/2
5	11	33/2
6	14	47/2
7	9	56/2
8	5	61/2
9	5	66/2
10	4	70/3
11	4	74/3
12	5	79/3
13	4	83/4
14	6	89/4
15	5	94/5
16	8	102/6
17	14	116/6
18	5	121/6
19	6	127/7
20	6	133/9

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