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ICC Men's Cricket World Cup League 2 · 2024/25 · Men
1 Nov 2024 · ODI
Recorded result
Oman more likely to win
Model tested on 501 past ODIs it never saw: its favourite won 63% of the time.
A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.
Worked out only from matches played before this one. The chances come from each side’s results rating in this format (an Elo rating that moves after every result), who is at home, recent form and past meetings. We tested it on matches from 2024 onwards that it had never seen. Upsets happen.
United Arab Emirates started on 28%; United Arab Emirates batted first.
Innings 1
| Batter | Dismissal | R | B | 4s | 6s | SR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aryansh Sharmacaught · Samay Shrivastava · Muzahir Raza 0 fours · 0 sixes | caught · Samay Shrivastava · b Muzahir Raza | 7 | 20 | 0 | 0 | 35.00 |
| D Parasharcaught · Hammad Mirza · Shakeel Ahmed 1 fours · 0 sixes | caught · Hammad Mirza · b Shakeel Ahmed | 5 | 18 | 1 | 0 | 27.78 |
| Vriitya Aravindbowled · Samay Shrivastava 3 fours · 0 sixes | bowled · b Samay Shrivastava | 28 | 42 | 3 | 0 | 66.67 |
| Waseem Muhammadcaught · Shakeel Ahmed · Jay Odedra 0 fours · 4 sixes | caught · Shakeel Ahmed · b Jay Odedra | 44 | 56 | 0 | 4 | 78.57 |
| Vishnu Sukumaranbowled · Samay Shrivastava 0 fours · 0 sixes | bowled · b Samay Shrivastava | 9 | 22 | 0 | 0 | 40.91 |
United Arab Emirates's chances ranged from 0% to 31% during the match (Oman: 69% to 100%).
Tested on every ball of 247 matches from 2024 it never saw: error score 0.171, against 0.234 for the pre-match chance alone (lower is better).
A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.
Before a ball is bowled the chance comes from the pre-match model. After each ball we compare the score with what usually follows from that many overs and wickets left at this ground (like a rain-rule resource table) and, in a chase, with the runs still needed. Early on the pre-match view counts most; late on the situation does.
| Rahul Choprabowled · Samay Shrivastava 0 fours · 0 sixes | bowled · b Samay Shrivastava | 0 | 6 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 |
|---|
| Basil Hameedstumped · Hammad Mirza · Aamir Kaleem 0 fours · 0 sixes | stumped · Hammad Mirza · b Aamir Kaleem | 7 | 15 | 0 | 0 | 46.67 |
|---|
| Aayan Afzal Khancaught · Aamir Kaleem · Samay Shrivastava 0 fours · 1 sixes | caught · Aamir Kaleem · b Samay Shrivastava | 16 | 45 | 0 | 1 | 35.56 |
|---|
| Ali Naseercaught · Sandeep Goud · K Sonavale 0 fours · 0 sixes | caught · Sandeep Goud · b K Sonavale | 3 | 7 | 0 | 0 | 42.86 |
|---|
| Muhammad Farooqbowled · Shakeel Ahmed 0 fours · 0 sixes | bowled · b Shakeel Ahmed | 0 | 6 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 |
|---|
| Junaid Siddiquenot out 0 fours · 0 sixes | not out | 2* | 12 | 0 | 0 | 16.67 |
|---|
| Extras | byes: 0 · legbyes: 1 · wides: 6 · noballs: 0 · penalty: 0 | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bowler | Overs | M | R | W | Runs / 6 balls | WD | NB |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Muzahir Raza0 maidens · 2 wides · 0 no-balls | 5.0 | 0 | 16 | 1 | 3.20 | 2 | 0 |
| Shakeel Ahmed0 maidens · 1 wides · 0 no-balls | 9.0 | 0 | 22 | 2 | 2.44 | 1 | 0 |
| Aamir Kaleem0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 10.0 | 0 | 30 | 1 | 3.00 | 0 | 0 |
| Jay Odedra0 maidens · 1 wides · 0 no-balls | 7.0 | 0 | 32 | 1 | 4.57 | 1 | 0 |
| Samay Shrivastava0 maidens · 2 wides · 0 no-balls | 8.3 | 0 | 25 | 4 | 2.94 | 2 | 0 |
| K Sonavale1 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 2.0 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 1.00 | 0 | 0 |
1-14 (Aryansh Sharma, 6.1) · 2-18 (D Parashar, 7.1) · 3-60 (Vriitya Aravind, 17.3) · 4-98 (Waseem Muhammad, 26.1) · 5-99 (Vishnu Sukumaran, 27.1) · 6-100 (Rahul Chopra, 27.5) · 7-108 (Basil Hameed, 32.1) · 8-123 (Ali Naseer, 37.1) · 9-124 (Muhammad Farooq, 38.2) · 10-128 (Aayan Afzal Khan, 41.3)
| Over / set | Runs | Score |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | 2 | 2/0 |
| 2 | 1 | 3/0 |
| 3 | 1 | 4/0 |
| 4 | 2 | 6/0 |
| 5 | 3 | 9/0 |
| 6 | 5 | 14/0 |
| 7 | 4 | 18/1 |
| 8 | 5 | 23/2 |
| 9 | 6 | 29/2 |
| 10 | 4 | 33/2 |
| 11 | 2 | 35/2 |
| 12 | 4 | 39/2 |
| 13 | 1 | 40/2 |
| 14 | 2 | 42/2 |
| 15 | 4 | 46/2 |
| 16 | 7 | 53/2 |
| 17 | 6 | 59/2 |
| 18 | 3 | 62/3 |
| 19 | 2 | 64/3 |
| 20 | 2 | 66/3 |
| 21 | 3 | 69/3 |
| 22 | 4 | 73/3 |
| 23 | 7 | 80/3 |
| 24 | 7 | 87/3 |
| 25 | 8 | 95/3 |
| 26 | 3 | 98/3 |
| 27 | 1 | 99/4 |
| 28 | 3 | 102/6 |
| 29 | 3 | 105/6 |
| 30 | 1 | 106/6 |
| 31 | 1 | 107/6 |
| 32 | 1 | 108/6 |
| 33 | 2 | 110/7 |
| 34 | 1 | 111/7 |
| 35 | 7 | 118/7 |
| 36 | 3 | 121/7 |
| 37 | 2 | 123/7 |
| 38 | 0 | 123/8 |
| 39 | 1 | 124/9 |
| 40 | 2 | 126/9 |
| 41 | 2 | 128/9 |
| 42 | 0 | 128/10 |
Statistics are calculated from imported deliveries. Super overs are separate; source corrections may change recorded figures.