ZimbabweversusIndia

6 Jul 2024 · T20

Harare Sports Club · Venue photograph

Recorded result

Zimbabwe won by 13 runs

Zimbabwe20.0 overs115/9 India19.5 overs102/10 Harare Sports Club ↗

Win chances before this match

Before the toss

India more likely to win

19%Zimbabwe81%India

Why

On results in T20 internationals so far, India rate stronger than Zimbabwe (1,768 vs 1,546 on our results rating)
In the last 8 T20 internationals between these sides, India won 6 and Zimbabwe won 2
Zimbabwe are playing at home in Zimbabwe

Model tested on 2,789 past T20 internationals it never saw: its favourite won 73% of the time.

A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.

How this works

Worked out only from matches played before this one. The chances come from each side’s results rating in this format (an Elo rating that moves after every result), who is at home, recent form and past meetings. We tested it on matches from 2024 onwards that it had never seen. Upsets happen.

How the win chances moved

Ball by ball

Zimbabwe started on 17%; Zimbabwe batted first.

Zimbabwe’s chance of winning (%) · India is the rest

Zimbabwe's chances ranged from 3% to 99% during the match (India: 1% to 97%).

Biggest swings

2nd inns 9.5: LM Jongwe to Dhruv Jurel, Dhruv Jurel out. Zimbabwe up from 30% to 57%.
2nd inns 12.5: Sikandar Raza to Ravi Bishnoi, Ravi Bishnoi out. Zimbabwe up from 65% to 88%.
2nd inns 15.5: WP Masakadza to Avesh Khan, Avesh Khan out. Zimbabwe up from 57% to 84%.

Tested on every ball of 1,498 matches from 2024 it never saw: error score 0.130, against 0.197 for the pre-match chance alone (lower is better).

A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.

How this works

Before a ball is bowled the chance comes from the pre-match model. After each ball we compare the score with what usually follows from that many overs and wickets left at this ground (like a rain-rule resource table) and, in a chase, with the runs still needed. Early on the pre-match view counts most; late on the situation does.

Zimbabwe115/9 India102/10

Innings 1

Zimbabwe

115/920.0 overs

Batting, bowling & fall of wickets

Zimbabwe batting
Batter	Dismissal	R	B	4s	6s	SR
Wesley Madheverebowled · Ravi Bishnoi 3 fours · 0 sixes	bowled · b Ravi Bishnoi	21	22	3	0	95.45
Innocent Kaiabowled · Mukesh Kumar 0 fours · 0 sixes	bowled · b Mukesh Kumar	0	1	0	0	0.00
Brian Bennettbowled · Ravi Bishnoi 5 fours · 0 sixes	bowled · b Ravi Bishnoi	22	15	5	0	146.67
Sikandar Razacaught · Ravi Bishnoi · Avesh Khan 1 fours · 1 sixes	caught · Ravi Bishnoi · b Avesh Khan	17	19	1	1	89.47
Dion Myerscaught and bowled · Washington Sundar 2 fours · 0 sixes	caught and bowled · b Washington Sundar	23

Bowler	Overs	M	R	W	Runs / 6 balls	WD
Khaleel Ahmed0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls	3.0	0	28	0	9.33	0
Mukesh Kumar0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls	3.0	0	16	1	5.33	0
Ravi Bishnoi2 maidens · 1 wides · 0 no-balls	4.0	2	13	4	3.25	1
Abhishek Sharma0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls	2.0	0	17	0	8.50	0
Avesh Khan0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls	4.0	0	29	1	7.25	0
Washington Sundar0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls	4.0	0	11	2	2.75	0

Over / set	Runs	Score
1	6	6/0
2	8	14/1
3	5	19/1
4	4	23/1
5	17	40/1
6	0	40/2
7	9	49/2
8	3	52/3
9	8	60/3
10	9	69/3
11	4	73/3
12	1	74/5
13	3	77/5
14	10	87/5
15	3	90/7
16	0	90/9
17	1	91/9
18	7	98/9
19	5	103/9
20	12	115/9

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