**Old Trafford**
Photo: Dave Morton
Original photograph ↗ · Public domain
Resized and converted to WebP; original framing preserved.
Historical photograph; current appearance and conditions may differ.

Vitality Blast · 2024 · Men

NottinghamshireversusLancashire

17 Jul 2024 · T20

Old Trafford · Venue photograph

Recorded result

Lancashire won by 8 wickets

Nottinghamshire20.0 overs131/7 Lancashire14.3 overs136/2 Old Trafford ↗

How the win chances moved

Ball by ball

Nottinghamshire started on 36%; Nottinghamshire batted first.

Nottinghamshire’s chance of winning (%) · Lancashire is the rest

Nottinghamshire's chances ranged from 0% to 37% during the match (Lancashire: 63% to 100%).

Biggest swings

1.2: S Mahmood to JM Clarke, JM Clarke out. Lancashire up from 66% to 76%.
2.5: L Wood to JA Haynes, JA Haynes out. Lancashire up from 72% to 81%.
5.2: TW Hartley to M Montgomery, M Montgomery out. Lancashire up from 84% to 92%.

Tested on every ball of 1,336 matches from 2024 it never saw: error score 0.175, against 0.247 for the pre-match chance alone (lower is better).

A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.

How this works

Before a ball is bowled the chance comes from the pre-match model. After each ball we compare the score with what usually follows from that many overs and wickets left at this ground (like a rain-rule resource table) and, in a chase, with the runs still needed. Early on the pre-match view counts most; late on the situation does.

Nottinghamshire131/7 Lancashire136/2

Innings 1