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ICC Men's Cricket World Cup League 2 · 2026 · Men
13 Aug 2026 · ODI
Forthill, Dundee · Venue photographRecorded result
Scotland more likely to win
Model tested on 501 past ODIs it never saw: its favourite won 63% of the time.
A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.
Worked out only from matches played before this one. The chances come from each side’s results rating in this format (an Elo rating that moves after every result), who is at home, recent form and past meetings. We tested it on matches from 2024 onwards that it had never seen. Upsets happen.
Scotland started on 79%; Scotland batted first.
Innings 1
| Batter | Dismissal | R | B | 4s | 6s | SR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Finlay McCreathlbw · Zahid Shirzad 2 fours · 0 sixes | lbw · b Zahid Shirzad | 13 | 18 | 2 | 0 | 72.22 |
| Michael Englishcaught · Aaron Johnson · Kaleem Sana 1 fours · 0 sixes | caught · Aaron Johnson · b Kaleem Sana | 6 | 17 | 1 | 0 | 35.29 |
| Brandon McMullenbowled · YS Samra 8 fours · 3 sixes | bowled · b YS Samra | 64 | 59 | 8 | 3 | 108.47 |
| Richie Berringtonlbw · Zahid Shirzad 15 fours · 4 sixes | lbw · b Zahid Shirzad | 120 | 103 | 15 | 4 | 116.50 |
 Michael Jonesbowled · Kaleem Sana3 fours · 1 sixes | bowled · b Kaleem Sana | 41 | 47 |
Scotland's chances ranged from 60% to 100% during the match (Canada: 0% to 40%).
Tested on every ball of 247 matches from 2024 it never saw: error score 0.171, against 0.234 for the pre-match chance alone (lower is better).
A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.
Before a ball is bowled the chance comes from the pre-match model. After each ball we compare the score with what usually follows from that many overs and wickets left at this ground (like a rain-rule resource table) and, in a chase, with the runs still needed. Early on the pre-match view counts most; late on the situation does.
| 3 |
| 1 |
| 87.23 |
| Matty Crossnot out 7 fours · 0 sixes | not out | 51* | 38 | 7 | 0 | 134.21 |
|---|
 Mark Wattcaught · Ansh Patel · Zahid Shirzad0 fours · 0 sixes | caught · Ansh Patel · b Zahid Shirzad | 1 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 33.33 |
|---|
| Jack Jarviscaught · Harsh Thaker · Zahid Shirzad 3 fours · 2 sixes | caught · Harsh Thaker · b Zahid Shirzad | 30 | 14 | 3 | 2 | 214.29 |
|---|
| Safyaan Sharifnot out 0 fours · 0 sixes | not out | 0* | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 |
|---|
| Extras | byes: 0 · legbyes: 13 · wides: 8 · noballs: 0 · penalty: 0 | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bowler | Overs | M | R | W | Runs / 6 balls | WD | NB |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kaleem Sana0 maidens · 1 wides · 0 no-balls | 10.0 | 0 | 56 | 2 | 5.60 | 1 | 0 |
| Zahid Shirzad1 maidens · 4 wides · 0 no-balls | 10.0 | 1 | 60 | 4 | 6.00 | 4 | 0 |
| Shivam Sharma (3)0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 2.0 | 0 | 26 | 0 | 13.00 | 0 | 0 |
 Saad Bin Zafar0 maidens · 1 wides · 0 no-balls | 10.0 | 0 | 51 | 0 | 5.10 | 1 | 0 |
| Ansh Patel0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 7.0 | 0 | 65 | 0 | 9.29 | 0 | 0 |
| Harsh Thaker0 maidens · 2 wides · 0 no-balls | 7.0 | 0 | 45 | 0 | 6.43 | 2 | 0 |
| YS Samra0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 4.0 | 0 | 31 | 1 | 7.75 | 0 | 0 |
1-25 (Finlay McCreath, 5.3) · 2-25 (Michael English, 6.2) · 3-165 (Brandon McMullen, 26.5) · 4-239 (Richie Berrington, 37.5) · 5-285 (Michael Jones, 44.1) · 6-292 (Mark Watt, 45.2) · 7-343 (Jack Jarvis, 49.2)
| Over / set | Runs | Score |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | 5 | 5/0 |
| 2 | 2 | 7/0 |
| 3 | 2 | 9/0 |
| 4 | 6 | 15/0 |
| 5 | 6 | 21/0 |
| 6 | 4 | 25/1 |
| 7 | 2 | 27/2 |
| 8 | 4 | 31/2 |
| 9 | 2 | 33/2 |
| 10 | 0 | 33/2 |
| 11 | 5 | 38/2 |
| 12 | 12 | 50/2 |
| 13 | 1 | 51/2 |
| 14 | 14 | 65/2 |
| 15 | 8 | 73/2 |
| 16 | 12 | 85/2 |
| 17 | 8 | 93/2 |
| 18 | 9 | 102/2 |
| 19 | 3 | 105/2 |
| 20 | 6 | 111/2 |
| 21 | 5 | 116/2 |
| 22 | 14 | 130/2 |
| 23 | 8 | 138/2 |
| 24 | 5 | 143/2 |
| 25 | 9 | 152/2 |
| 26 | 7 | 159/2 |
| 27 | 6 | 165/3 |
| 28 | 4 | 169/3 |
| 29 | 6 | 175/3 |
| 30 | 5 | 180/3 |
| 31 | 1 | 181/3 |
| 32 | 5 | 186/3 |
| 33 | 7 | 193/3 |
| 34 | 6 | 199/3 |
| 35 | 6 | 205/3 |
| 36 | 13 | 218/3 |
| 37 | 10 | 228/3 |
| 38 | 11 | 239/4 |
| 39 | 7 | 246/4 |
| 40 | 7 | 253/4 |
| 41 | 5 | 258/4 |
| 42 | 2 | 260/4 |
| 43 | 9 | 269/4 |
| 44 | 16 | 285/4 |
| 45 | 6 | 291/5 |
| 46 | 11 | 302/6 |
| 47 | 13 | 315/6 |
| 48 | 15 | 330/6 |
| 49 | 12 | 342/6 |
| 50 | 5 | 347/7 |
Mark Watt: Dave Morton · Public domain
Michael Jones: Dave Morton · Public domain
Saad Bin Zafar: Apnagm · CC BY-SA 4.0
Statistics are calculated from imported deliveries. Super overs are separate; source corrections may change recorded figures.
