BangladeshversusScotland

30 Jan 2026 · T20

Tribhuvan University International Cricket Ground, Kirtipur · Venue photograph

Recorded result

Bangladesh won by 90 runs

Bangladesh20.0 overs191/5 Scotland20.0 overs101/9 Tribhuvan University International Cricket Ground, Kirtipur ↗

Win chances before this match

Before the toss

Scotland more likely to win

43%Bangladesh57%Scotland

Why

On results in T20 internationals so far, Scotland rate stronger than Bangladesh (1,707 vs 1,563 on our results rating)
In the last 5 T20 internationals between these sides, Bangladesh won 5 and Scotland won 0

Model tested on 2,789 past T20 internationals it never saw: its favourite won 73% of the time.

A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.

How this works

Worked out only from matches played before this one. The chances come from each side’s results rating in this format (an Elo rating that moves after every result), who is at home, recent form and past meetings. We tested it on matches from 2024 onwards that it had never seen. Upsets happen.

How the win chances moved

Ball by ball

Bangladesh started on 42%; Bangladesh batted first.

Bangladesh’s chance of winning (%) · Scotland is the rest

Bangladesh's chances ranged from 42% to 100% during the match (Scotland: 0% to 58%).

Biggest swings

1.4: O Bell to Juairiya Ferdous, 2 runs to Juairiya Ferdous. Bangladesh up from 45% to 52%.
7.6: K Fraser to Dilara Akter, Dilara Akter out. Scotland up from 27% to 33%.
8.2: C Abel to Juairiya Ferdous, Juairiya Ferdous out. Scotland up from 34% to 39%.

Tested on every ball of 1,050 matches from 2024 it never saw: error score 0.120, against 0.177 for the pre-match chance alone (lower is better).

A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.

How this works

Before a ball is bowled the chance comes from the pre-match model. After each ball we compare the score with what usually follows from that many overs and wickets left at this ground (like a rain-rule resource table) and, in a chase, with the runs still needed. Early on the pre-match view counts most; late on the situation does.

Bangladesh191/5 Scotland101/9

Innings 1

Bangladesh

191/520.0 overs

Batting, bowling & fall of wickets

Bangladesh batting
Batter	Dismissal	R	B	4s	6s	SR
Dilara Aktercaught · Kathryn Bryce · Katherine Fraser 6 fours · 1 sixes	caught · Kathryn Bryce · b Katherine Fraser	39	28	6	1	139.29
Juairiya Ferdouscaught · Ailsa Lister · Chloe Abel 1 fours · 1 sixes	caught · Ailsa Lister · b Chloe Abel	22	22	1	1	100.00
Sharmin Akhterrun out · Darcey Carter, Sarah Bryce · Chloe Abel 2 fours · 0 sixes	run out · Darcey Carter, Sarah Bryce	15	10	2	0	150.00
Nigar Sultananot out 5 fours · 3 sixes	not out	56*	35	5	3	160.00

Bowler	Overs	R	W	Runs / 6 balls	WD
Kathryn Bryce0 maidens · 1 wides · 0 no-balls	4.0	20	0	5.00	1
Olivia Bell0 maidens · 5 wides · 0 no-balls	1.0	14	0	14.00	5
Priyanaz Chatterji0 maidens · 1 wides · 0 no-balls	4.0	40	1	10.00	1
Chloe Abel0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls	4.0	44	1	11.00	0
Abtaha Maqsood0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls	3.0	34	0	11.33	0
Katherine Fraser0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls	4.0	39	1	9.75	0

Over / set	Runs	Score
1	4	4/0
2	14	18/0
3	6	24/0
4	6	30/0
5	12	42/0
6	5	47/0
7	12	59/0
8	8	67/1
9	2	69/2
10	9	78/2
11	8	86/3
12	7	93/3
13	5	98/3
14	13	111/3
15	11	122/3
16	5	127/3
17	18	145/3
18	13	158/3
19	22	180/3
20	11	191/5

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