ArgentinaversusMexico

14 Dec 2024 · T20

Recorded result

Argentina won by 23 runs

Argentina20.0 overs121/8 Mexico19.5 overs98/10 Belgrano Athletic Club Ground, Buenos Aires ↗

Win chances before this match

Before the toss

Argentina more likely to win

77%Argentina23%Mexico

Why

On results in T20 internationals so far, Argentina rate stronger than Mexico (1,427 vs 1,320 on our results rating)
In the last 2 T20 internationals between these sides, Argentina won 2 and Mexico won 0
Argentina are playing at home in Argentina

Model tested on 2,789 past T20 internationals it never saw: its favourite won 73% of the time.

A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.

How this works

Worked out only from matches played before this one. The chances come from each side’s results rating in this format (an Elo rating that moves after every result), who is at home, recent form and past meetings. We tested it on matches from 2024 onwards that it had never seen. Upsets happen.

How the win chances moved

Ball by ball

Argentina started on 75%; Argentina batted first.

Argentina’s chance of winning (%) · Mexico is the rest

Argentina's chances ranged from 40% to 100% during the match (Mexico: 0% to 60%).

Biggest swings

2nd inns 5.1: H Fennell to Shashikant Laxman, Shashikant Laxman out. Argentina up from 42% to 54%.
2nd inns 6.2: A Kirschbaum to Praveen Santhanakrishnan, Praveen Santhanakrishnan out. Argentina up from 55% to 66%.
2nd inns 8.5: A Kirschbaum to Shantanu Kaveri, Shantanu Kaveri out. Argentina up from 70% to 79%.

Tested on every ball of 1,498 matches from 2024 it never saw: error score 0.130, against 0.197 for the pre-match chance alone (lower is better).

A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.

How this works

Before a ball is bowled the chance comes from the pre-match model. After each ball we compare the score with what usually follows from that many overs and wickets left at this ground (like a rain-rule resource table) and, in a chase, with the runs still needed. Early on the pre-match view counts most; late on the situation does.

Argentina121/8 Mexico98/10

Innings 1

Argentina

121/820.0 overs

Batting, bowling & fall of wickets

Argentina batting
Batter	Dismissal	R	B	4s	6s	SR
Lucas Rossibowled · Shoaib Rafiq 1 fours · 0 sixes	bowled · b Shoaib Rafiq	8	8	1	0	100.00
Guido Angeletticaught · Shoaib Rafiq · Shashikant Laxman 1 fours · 1 sixes	caught · Shoaib Rafiq · b Shashikant Laxman	16	16	1	1	100.00
P Baronbowled · Shoaib Rafiq 1 fours · 0 sixes	bowled · b Shoaib Rafiq	4	2	1	0	200.00
A Kirschbaumbowled · PK Mohanarangam 1 fours · 0 sixes	bowled · b PK Mohanarangam	9	13	1	0	69.23
T Rossicaught · Praveen Santhanakrishnan · Shantanu Kaveri 1 fours · 0 sixes	caught · Praveen Santhanakrishnan · b Shantanu Kaveri	12	21	1	0	57.14

Bowler	Overs	R	W	Runs / 6 balls	WD
Y Jasti0 maidens · 1 wides · 0 no-balls	4.0	34	0	8.50	1
Shoaib Rafiq0 maidens · 1 wides · 0 no-balls	4.0	18	3	4.50	1
PK Mohanarangam0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls	4.0	14	2	3.50	0
Shashikant Laxman0 maidens · 3 wides · 0 no-balls	3.0	26	1	8.67	3
Luis Hermida0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls	3.0	14	0	4.67	0
Shantanu Kaveri0 maidens · 1 wides · 0 no-balls	2.0	9	1	4.50	1

Over / set	Runs	Score
1	9	9/0
2	5	14/2
3	6	20/2
4	3	23/2
5	2	25/3
6	8	33/3
7	6	39/3
8	7	46/4
9	3	49/4
10	11	60/4
11	6	66/4
12	3	69/4
13	4	73/4
14	6	79/5
15	8	87/5
16	5	92/5
17	9	101/5
18	5	106/6
19	10	116/6
20	5	121/8

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