SingaporeversusBahrain

2 Mar 2025 · T20

Recorded result

Bahrain won by 8 wickets

Singapore20.0 overs142/10 Bahrain19.0 overs146/2 Singapore National Cricket Ground ↗

Win chances before this match

Before the toss

Bahrain more likely to win

27%Singapore73%Bahrain

Why

On results in T20 internationals so far, Bahrain rate stronger than Singapore (1,545 vs 1,414 on our results rating)
In the last 3 T20 internationals between these sides, Bahrain won 3 and Singapore won 0
Singapore are playing at home in Singapore

Model tested on 2,789 past T20 internationals it never saw: its favourite won 73% of the time.

A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.

How this works

Worked out only from matches played before this one. The chances come from each side’s results rating in this format (an Elo rating that moves after every result), who is at home, recent form and past meetings. We tested it on matches from 2024 onwards that it had never seen. Upsets happen.

How the win chances moved

Ball by ball

Singapore started on 25%; Singapore batted first.

Singapore’s chance of winning (%) · Bahrain is the rest

Singapore's chances ranged from 0% to 28% during the match (Bahrain: 72% to 100%).

Biggest swings

0.3: Ali Dawood to Aman Desai, Aman Desai out. Bahrain up from 73% to 82%.
5.6: Abdul Majid Abbasi to Aritra Dutta, Aritra Dutta out. Bahrain up from 75% to 81%.
8.3: S Sarthak to R Rohan, R Rohan out. Bahrain up from 76% to 82%.

Tested on every ball of 1,498 matches from 2024 it never saw: error score 0.130, against 0.197 for the pre-match chance alone (lower is better).

A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.

How this works

Before a ball is bowled the chance comes from the pre-match model. After each ball we compare the score with what usually follows from that many overs and wickets left at this ground (like a rain-rule resource table) and, in a chase, with the runs still needed. Early on the pre-match view counts most; late on the situation does.

Singapore142/10 Bahrain146/2

Innings 1

Singapore

142/1020.0 overs

Batting, bowling & fall of wickets

Singapore batting
Batter	Dismissal	R	B	4s	6s	SR
Aman Desaicaught · P Kurup · Ali Dawood 0 fours · 0 sixes	caught · P Kurup · b Ali Dawood	0	3	0	0	0.00
Rohan Rangarajancaught · Sohail Ahmed · S Sarthak 1 fours · 1 sixes	caught · Sohail Ahmed · b S Sarthak	22	28	1	1	78.57
Aritra Duttacaught · Ahmer Bin Nasir · Abdul Majeed 2 fours · 1 sixes	caught · Ahmer Bin Nasir · b Abdul Majeed	24	18	2	1	133.33
Manpreet Singhbowled · Rizwan Butt 1 fours · 4 sixes	bowled · b Rizwan Butt	48	31	1	4	154.84
Surendran Chandramohancaught · Fiaz Ahmed · S Sarthak 0 fours · 0 sixes

Bowler	Overs	R	W	Runs / 6 balls	WD	NB
Ali Dawood0 maidens · 4 wides · 1 no-balls	4.0	25	3	6.25	4	1
Imran Anwar0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls	4.0	25	1	6.25	0	0
Rizwan Butt0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls	4.0	25	2	6.25	0	0
Abdul Majeed0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls	4.0	28	1	7.00	0	0
S Sarthak0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls	4.0	30	2	7.50	0	0

Over / set	Runs	Score
1	5	5/1
2	5	10/1
3	8	18/1
4	8	26/1
5	4	30/1
6	7	37/2
7	9	46/2
8	5	51/2
9	6	57/3
10	4	61/3
11	7	68/4
12	13	81/4
13	14	95/4
14	8	103/4
15	4	107/6
16	9	116/6
17	10	126/6
18	5	131/7
19	4	135/8
20	7	142/10

Bringing the game to you…

Help make cricket’s story more accurate.