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Women's T20 World Cup Qualifier · 2025/26 · Women
26 Jan 2026 · T20
Recorded result
Papua New Guinea more likely to win
Model tested on 2,789 past T20 internationals it never saw: its favourite won 73% of the time.
A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.
Worked out only from matches played before this one. The chances come from each side’s results rating in this format (an Elo rating that moves after every result), who is at home, recent form and past meetings. We tested it on matches from 2024 onwards that it had never seen. Upsets happen.
Papua New Guinea started on 75%; Papua New Guinea batted first.
Papua New Guinea's chances ranged from 1% to 79% during the match (United States of America: 22% to 100%).
Tested on every ball of 1,050 matches from 2024 it never saw: error score 0.120, against 0.177 for the pre-match chance alone (lower is better).
A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.
Before a ball is bowled the chance comes from the pre-match model. After each ball we compare the score with what usually follows from that many overs and wickets left at this ground (like a rain-rule resource table) and, in a chase, with the runs still needed. Early on the pre-match view counts most; late on the situation does.
Innings 1
| Batter | Dismissal | R | B | 4s | 6s | SR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| H Dorigabowled · L Shetty 2 fours · 1 sixes | bowled · b L Shetty | 17 | 36 | 2 | 1 | 47.22 |
| Konio Oalastumped · Ella Claridge · AI Chudasama 1 fours · 2 sixes | stumped · Ella Claridge · b AI Chudasama | 41 | 40 | 1 | 2 | 102.50 |
| Brenda Taucaught · CR Pagydyala · L Shetty 0 fours · 0 sixes | caught · CR Pagydyala · b L Shetty | 2 | 9 | 0 | 0 | 22.22 |
| Sibona Jimmycaught · Geetika Kodali · L Shetty 2 fours · 0 sixes | caught · Geetika Kodali · b L Shetty | 10 | 10 | 2 | 0 | 100.00 |
| Pauke Siakacaught · CR Pagydyala · Tara Norris 3 fours · 0 sixes | caught · CR Pagydyala · b Tara Norris | 26 | 21 | 3 | 0 | 123.81 |
| not out |
| 2* |
| 4 |
| 0 |
| 0 |
| 50.00 |
| HJ Thomasnot out 0 fours · 0 sixes | not out | 2* | 1 | 0 | 0 | 200.00 |
|---|
| Extras | byes: 0 · legbyes: 3 · wides: 6 · noballs: 1 · penalty: 0 | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bowler | Overs | M | R | W | Runs / 6 balls | WD | NB |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 Tara Norris1 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 4.0 | 1 | 12 | 1 | 3.00 | 0 | 0 |
| Geetika Kodali0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 4.0 | 0 | 22 | 0 | 5.50 | 0 | 0 |
| Isani Vaghela1 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 4.0 | 1 | 14 | 0 | 3.50 | 0 | 0 |
| L Shetty0 maidens · 5 wides · 1 no-balls | 4.0 | 0 | 27 | 3 | 6.75 | 5 | 1 |
| AI Chudasama0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 3.0 | 0 | 19 | 1 | 6.33 | 0 | 0 |
| S Immadi0 maidens · 1 wides · 0 no-balls | 1.0 | 0 | 13 | 0 | 13.00 | 1 | 0 |
1-29 (H Doriga, 7.5) · 2-40 (Brenda Tau, 11.1) · 3-61 (Sibona Jimmy, 13.5) · 4-100 (Konio Oala, 18.2) · 5-108 (Pauke Siaka, 19.5)
| Over / set | Runs | Score |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | 0 | 0/0 |
| 2 | 1 | 1/0 |
| 3 | 5 | 6/0 |
| 4 | 12 | 18/0 |
| 5 | 6 | 24/0 |
| 6 | 2 | 26/0 |
| 7 | 0 | 26/0 |
| 8 | 3 | 29/1 |
| 9 | 1 | 30/1 |
| 10 | 8 | 38/1 |
| 11 | 2 | 40/1 |
| 12 | 7 | 47/2 |
| 13 | 5 | 52/2 |
| 14 | 10 | 62/3 |
| 15 | 13 | 75/3 |
| 16 | 8 | 83/3 |
| 17 | 8 | 91/3 |
| 18 | 7 | 98/3 |
| 19 | 6 | 104/4 |
| 20 | 6 | 110/5 |
Tara Norris: Tukpuki · CC BY-SA 4.0
Statistics are calculated from imported deliveries. Super overs are separate; source corrections may change recorded figures.
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