MaltaversusEstonia

7 May 2025 · T20

Recorded result

Malta won by 101 runs

Malta20.0 overs229/8 Estonia15.4 overs128/10 Marsa Sports Club ↗

Win chances before this match

Before the toss

Estonia more likely to win

30%Malta70%Estonia

Why

On results in T20 internationals so far, Estonia rate stronger than Malta (1,446 vs 1,296 on our results rating)
Malta are playing at home in Malta
In the last 3 T20 internationals between these sides, Estonia won 2 and Malta won 1

Model tested on 2,789 past T20 internationals it never saw: its favourite won 73% of the time.

A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.

How this works

Worked out only from matches played before this one. The chances come from each side’s results rating in this format (an Elo rating that moves after every result), who is at home, recent form and past meetings. We tested it on matches from 2024 onwards that it had never seen. Upsets happen.

How the win chances moved

Ball by ball

Malta started on 27%; Malta batted first.

Malta’s chance of winning (%) · Estonia is the rest

Malta's chances ranged from 20% to 100% during the match (Estonia: 0% to 80%).

Biggest swings

0.4: Elias Hasan to Imran Ameer, Imran Ameer out. Estonia up from 68% to 78%.
2nd inns 3.3: D Marks to Habib Khan, Habib Khan out. Malta up from 75% to 83%.
2nd inns 5.4: D Marks to S Gooch, Ali Masood out. Malta up from 85% to 90%.

Tested on every ball of 1,498 matches from 2024 it never saw: error score 0.130, against 0.197 for the pre-match chance alone (lower is better).

A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.

How this works

Before a ball is bowled the chance comes from the pre-match model. After each ball we compare the score with what usually follows from that many overs and wickets left at this ground (like a rain-rule resource table) and, in a chase, with the runs still needed. Early on the pre-match view counts most; late on the situation does.

Malta229/8 Estonia128/10

Innings 1

Malta

229/820.0 overs

Batting, bowling & fall of wickets

Malta batting
Batter	Dismissal	R	B	4s	6s	SR
R Dianishbowled · Habib Khan 6 fours · 3 sixes	bowled · b Habib Khan	58	35	6	3	165.71
Imran Ameerbowled · Elias Hasan 0 fours · 0 sixes	bowled · b Elias Hasan	0	1	0	0	0.00
P Pushparajancaught · Ali Masood · A Paul 8 fours · 8 sixes	caught · Ali Masood · b A Paul	103	40	8	8	257.50
VP Thamotharamlbw · Ali Masood 1 fours · 0 sixes	lbw · b Ali Masood	12	12	1	0	100.00
Mehboob Alicaught · Sahil Chauhan · Ali Masood 0 fours · 0 sixes	caught · Sahil Chauhan · b Ali Masood	0	1	0	0	0.00
Jaspal Singhcaught · Arslan Amjad · A Paul1 fours · 0 sixes

Bowler	Overs	R	W	Runs / 6 balls	WD
Elias Hasan0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls	2.0	30	1	15.00	0
S Gooch0 maidens · 1 wides · 0 no-balls	2.0	28	0	14.00	1
Habib Khan0 maidens · 4 wides · 0 no-balls	4.0	46	1	11.50	4
K Vislapuu0 maidens · 1 wides · 0 no-balls	1.0	21	0	21.00	1
Arslan Amjad0 maidens · 2 wides · 0 no-balls	2.0	24	0	12.00	2
R Baruah0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls	1.0	16	0	16.00	0
Ali Masood0 maidens · 1 wides · 0 no-balls	4.0	32	3	8.00	1
A Paul0 maidens · 3 wides · 0 no-balls	4.0	25	2	6.25	3

Over / set	Runs	Score
1	7	7/1
2	9	16/1
3	23	39/1
4	17	56/1
5	22	78/1
6	14	92/1
7	19	111/1
8	7	118/1
9	16	134/1
10	17	151/1
11	10	161/1
12	9	170/2
13	9	179/2
14	4	183/2
15	4	187/4
16	4	191/5
17	10	201/6
18	6	207/7
19	9	216/7
20	13	229/8

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