SwedenversusIndonesia

13 Apr 2026 · T20

Recorded result

Sweden won by 18 runs

Sweden20.0 overs166/8 Indonesia18.2 overs148/10 Udayana Cricket Ground, Bali ↗

Win chances before this match

Before the toss

Sweden more likely to win

81%Sweden19%Indonesia

Why

On results in T20 internationals so far, Sweden rate stronger than Indonesia (1,554 vs 1,384 on our results rating)
In the last 6 T20 internationals between these sides, Sweden won 6 and Indonesia won 0
Indonesia are playing at home in Indonesia

Model tested on 2,789 past T20 internationals it never saw: its favourite won 73% of the time.

A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.

How this works

Worked out only from matches played before this one. The chances come from each side’s results rating in this format (an Elo rating that moves after every result), who is at home, recent form and past meetings. We tested it on matches from 2024 onwards that it had never seen. Upsets happen.

How the win chances moved

Ball by ball

Sweden started on 79%; Sweden batted first.

Sweden’s chance of winning (%) · Indonesia is the rest

Sweden's chances ranged from 38% to 97% during the match (Indonesia: 3% to 63%).

Biggest swings

1.1: Gaurav Tiwari to Imal Zuwak, Imal Zuwak out. Indonesia up from 23% to 43%.
2nd inns 13.3: Awais Ahmad to AA Rahayu, six by AA Rahayu. Indonesia up from 37% to 55%.
2nd inns 15.2: Zain Muzaffar to S Kharvi, S Kharvi out. Sweden up from 47% to 67%.

Tested on every ball of 1,498 matches from 2024 it never saw: error score 0.130, against 0.197 for the pre-match chance alone (lower is better).

A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.

How this works

Before a ball is bowled the chance comes from the pre-match model. After each ball we compare the score with what usually follows from that many overs and wickets left at this ground (like a rain-rule resource table) and, in a chase, with the runs still needed. Early on the pre-match view counts most; late on the situation does.

Sweden166/8 Indonesia148/10

Innings 1

Sweden

166/820.0 overs

Batting, bowling & fall of wickets

Sweden batting
Batter	Dismissal	R	B	4s	6s	SR
Imal Zuwakbowled · Gaurav Tiwari 1 fours · 0 sixes	bowled · b Gaurav Tiwari	5	3	1	0	166.67
A Mundracaught · Gede Priandana · F Banunaek 0 fours · 1 sixes	caught · Gede Priandana · b F Banunaek	6	3	0	1	200.00
Awais Ahmadcaught · Danilson Hawoe · F Banunaek 0 fours · 0 sixes	caught · Danilson Hawoe · b F Banunaek	0	1	0	0	0.00
YS Chauhancaught · Gaurav Tiwari · Kadek Gamantika 4 fours · 1 sixes	caught · Gaurav Tiwari · b Kadek Gamantika	32	28	4	1	114.29
W Boshoffbowled · Gaurav Tiwari 0 fours · 0 sixes	bowled · b Gaurav Tiwari	0	3	0	0	0.00

Bowler	Overs	M	R	W	Runs / 6 balls	WD	NB
F Banunaek0 maidens · 0 wides · 1 no-balls	2.0	0	27	2	13.50	0	1
Gaurav Tiwari1 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls	4.0	1	22	3	5.50	0	0
Danilson Hawoe0 maidens · 1 wides · 0 no-balls	4.0	0	42	1	10.50	1	0
Gede Arta0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls	4.0	0	23	0	5.75	0	0
Kadek Gamantika0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls	4.0	0	29	2	7.25	0	0
Kavin Chaddha0 maidens · 2 wides · 0 no-balls	2.0	0	21	0	10.50	2	0

Over / set	Runs	Score
1	16	16/2
2	0	16/4
3	12	28/4
4	12	40/4
5	3	43/4
6	3	46/5
7	7	53/5
8	7	60/5
9	9	69/5
10	4	73/5
11	4	77/5
12	7	84/6
13	2	86/6
14	9	95/6
15	8	103/6
16	10	113/7
17	13	126/7
18	10	136/8
19	11	147/8
20	19	166/8

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