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England Women tour of Ireland · 2024 · Women
9 Sept 2024 · ODI
Recorded result
England more likely to win
Model tested on 501 past ODIs it never saw: its favourite won 63% of the time.
A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.
Worked out only from matches played before this one. The chances come from each side’s results rating in this format (an Elo rating that moves after every result), who is at home, recent form and past meetings. We tested it on matches from 2024 onwards that it had never seen. Upsets happen.
England started on 73%; England batted first.
England's chances ranged from 72% to 100% during the match (Ireland: 0% to 28%).
Tested on every ball of 175 matches from 2024 it never saw: error score 0.129, against 0.189 for the pre-match chance alone (lower is better).
Innings 1
| Batter | Dismissal | R | B | 4s | 6s | SR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 Tammy Beaumontnot out16 fours · 1 sixes | not out | 150* | 139 | 16 | 1 | 107.91 |
| Emma Lambrun out · Una Raymond-Hoey, Amy Hunter · Arlene Kelly 3 fours · 0 sixes | run out · Una Raymond-Hoey, Amy Hunter | 18 | 32 | 3 | 0 | 56.25 |
 Hollie Armitagecaught · Orla Prendergast · FA Sargent3 fours · 0 sixes | caught · Orla Prendergast · b FA Sargent | 19 | 35 | 3 | 0 | 54.29 |
 Paige Scholfieldlbw · A Tector1 fours · 0 sixes | lbw · b A Tector | 7 | 11 | 1 | 0 | 63.64 |
A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.
Before a ball is bowled the chance comes from the pre-match model. After each ball we compare the score with what usually follows from that many overs and wickets left at this ground (like a rain-rule resource table) and, in a chase, with the runs still needed. Early on the pre-match view counts most; late on the situation does.
| Freya Kempcaught · Gaby Lewis · Jane Maguire 7 fours · 2 sixes | caught · Gaby Lewis · b Jane Maguire | 65 | 47 | 7 | 2 | 138.30 |
|---|
| Bess Heathlbw · FA Sargent 0 fours · 0 sixes | lbw · b FA Sargent | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 |
|---|
| Mady Villiersbowled · Aimee Maguire 2 fours · 0 sixes | bowled · b Aimee Maguire | 14 | 11 | 2 | 0 | 127.27 |
|---|
 Kate Crosscaught · Orla Prendergast · Arlene Kelly0 fours · 0 sixes | caught · Orla Prendergast · b Arlene Kelly | 8 | 15 | 0 | 0 | 53.33 |
|---|
| Issy Wongcaught · Orla Prendergast · Arlene Kelly 0 fours · 1 sixes | caught · Orla Prendergast · b Arlene Kelly | 15 | 8 | 0 | 1 | 187.50 |
|---|
| Extras | byes: 0 · legbyes: 2 · wides: 22 · noballs: 0 · penalty: 0 | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bowler | Overs | M | R | W | Runs / 6 balls | WD | NB |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Orla Prendergast2 maidens · 4 wides · 0 no-balls | 8.0 | 2 | 46 | 0 | 5.75 | 4 | 0 |
| A Tector0 maidens · 3 wides · 0 no-balls | 8.0 | 0 | 58 | 1 | 7.25 | 3 | 0 |
| Jane Maguire0 maidens · 4 wides · 0 no-balls | 8.0 | 0 | 50 | 1 | 6.25 | 4 | 0 |
| Arlene Kelly1 maidens · 1 wides · 0 no-balls | 10.0 | 1 | 61 | 2 | 6.10 | 1 | 0 |
| FA Sargent0 maidens · 4 wides · 0 no-balls | 10.0 | 0 | 60 | 2 | 6.00 | 4 | 0 |
| Aimee Maguire0 maidens · 6 wides · 0 no-balls | 6.0 | 0 | 43 | 1 | 7.17 | 6 | 0 |
1-42 (Emma Lamb, 8.5) · 2-86 (Hollie Armitage, 19.4) · 3-113 (Paige Scholfield, 24.4) · 4-214 (Freya Kemp, 37.5) · 5-215 (Bess Heath, 38.4) · 6-235 (Mady Villiers, 41.4) · 7-286 (Kate Cross, 47.4) · 8-320 (Issy Wong, 50.0)
| Over / set | Runs | Score |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | 5 | 5/0 |
| 2 | 6 | 11/0 |
| 3 | 0 | 11/0 |
| 4 | 12 | 23/0 |
| 5 | 0 | 23/0 |
| 6 | 10 | 33/0 |
| 7 | 3 | 36/0 |
| 8 | 6 | 42/0 |
| 9 | 0 | 42/1 |
| 10 | 4 | 46/1 |
| 11 | 1 | 47/1 |
| 12 | 4 | 51/1 |
| 13 | 5 | 56/1 |
| 14 | 5 | 61/1 |
| 15 | 1 | 62/1 |
| 16 | 5 | 67/1 |
| 17 | 4 | 71/1 |
| 18 | 4 | 75/1 |
| 19 | 2 | 77/1 |
| 20 | 9 | 86/2 |
| 21 | 4 | 90/2 |
| 22 | 4 | 94/2 |
| 23 | 8 | 102/2 |
| 24 | 10 | 112/2 |
| 25 | 3 | 115/3 |
| 26 | 2 | 117/3 |
| 27 | 10 | 127/3 |
| 28 | 9 | 136/3 |
| 29 | 7 | 143/3 |
| 30 | 9 | 152/3 |
| 31 | 10 | 162/3 |
| 32 | 13 | 175/3 |
| 33 | 4 | 179/3 |
| 34 | 6 | 185/3 |
| 35 | 11 | 196/3 |
| 36 | 5 | 201/3 |
| 37 | 9 | 210/3 |
| 38 | 4 | 214/4 |
| 39 | 2 | 216/5 |
| 40 | 5 | 221/5 |
| 41 | 7 | 228/5 |
| 42 | 8 | 236/6 |
| 43 | 7 | 243/6 |
| 44 | 8 | 251/6 |
| 45 | 14 | 265/6 |
| 46 | 9 | 274/6 |
| 47 | 10 | 284/6 |
| 48 | 9 | 293/7 |
| 49 | 13 | 306/7 |
| 50 | 14 | 320/8 |
Kate Cross: Bahnfrend · CC BY-SA 4.0
Lauren Filer: Mpk662 · CC BY-SA 4.0
Paige Scholfield: Yu Chu Chin · CC BY-SA 4.0
Tammy Beaumont: Bahnfrend · CC BY-SA 4.0
Hollie Armitage: Bahnfrend · CC BY-SA 4.0
Statistics are calculated from imported deliveries. Super overs are separate; source corrections may change recorded figures.
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