Northern DistrictsversusAuckland

12 Jan 2024 · T20

Bay Oval, Mount Maunganui · Venue photograph

Recorded result

Northern Districts won by 19 runs

Northern Districts20.0 overs133/7 Auckland20.0 overs114/7 Bay Oval, Mount Maunganui ↗

How the win chances moved

Ball by ball

Northern Districts started on 43%; Northern Districts batted first.

Northern Districts’s chance of winning (%) · Auckland is the rest

Northern Districts's chances ranged from 37% to 100% during the match (Auckland: 0% to 63%).

Biggest swings

2nd inns 4.4: AC Jayangani to IC Gaze, IC Gaze out. Northern Districts up from 61% to 73%.
2nd inns 10.6: NH Patel to P Catton, P Catton out. Northern Districts up from 48% to 59%.
2nd inns 15.4: JM Watkin to BM Halliday, ML Green out. Northern Districts up from 62% to 73%.

Tested on every ball of 360 matches from 2024 it never saw: error score 0.172, against 0.236 for the pre-match chance alone (lower is better).

A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.

How this works

Before a ball is bowled the chance comes from the pre-match model. After each ball we compare the score with what usually follows from that many overs and wickets left at this ground (like a rain-rule resource table) and, in a chase, with the runs still needed. Early on the pre-match view counts most; late on the situation does.

Northern Districts133/7 Auckland114/7

Innings 1