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ICC Women's T20 World Cup Europe Division 1 Qualifier · 2025 · Women
24 Aug 2025 · T20
Recorded result
Netherlands more likely to win
Model tested on 2,789 past T20 internationals it never saw: its favourite won 73% of the time.
A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.
Worked out only from matches played before this one. The chances come from each side’s results rating in this format (an Elo rating that moves after every result), who is at home, recent form and past meetings. We tested it on matches from 2024 onwards that it had never seen. Upsets happen.
Italy started on 17%; Italy batted first.
Italy's chances ranged from 0% to 17% during the match (Netherlands: 83% to 100%).
Tested on every ball of 1,050 matches from 2024 it never saw: error score 0.120, against 0.177 for the pre-match chance alone (lower is better).
A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.
Before a ball is bowled the chance comes from the pre-match model. After each ball we compare the score with what usually follows from that many overs and wickets left at this ground (like a rain-rule resource table) and, in a chase, with the runs still needed. Early on the pre-match view counts most; late on the situation does.
Innings 1
| Batter | Dismissal | R | B | 4s | 6s | SR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| M Rathnayakecaught · Silver Siegers · Iris Zwilling 0 fours · 0 sixes | caught · Silver Siegers · b Iris Zwilling | 0 | 6 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 |
| A Kontopirakisbowled · Iris Zwilling 1 fours · 0 sixes | bowled · b Iris Zwilling | 10 | 8 | 1 | 0 | 125.00 |
 Chloe Piparobowled · Iris Zwilling2 fours · 0 sixes | bowled · b Iris Zwilling | 13 | 16 | 2 | 0 | 81.25 |
| Ilenia Simsrun out · Robine Rijke · Iris Zwilling 0 fours · 0 sixes | run out · Robine Rijke | 1 | 7 | 0 | 0 | 14.29 |
| Annie Wikmancaught · Iris Zwilling · Silver Siegers 0 fours · 0 sixes | caught · Iris Zwilling · b Silver Siegers |
| 6 |
| 6 |
| 0 |
| 0 |
| 100.00 |
| EL Bartramnot out 2 fours · 0 sixes | not out | 29* | 35 | 2 | 0 | 82.86 |
|---|
| C Mahamalagelbw · Caroline de Lange 0 fours · 0 sixes | lbw · b Caroline de Lange | 1 | 12 | 0 | 0 | 8.33 |
|---|
| D Nanayakkaracaught · MIW van den Raad · Caroline de Lange 0 fours · 0 sixes | caught · MIW van den Raad · b Caroline de Lange | 1 | 6 | 0 | 0 | 16.67 |
|---|
| ECB Moorecaught · Robine Rijke · Silver Siegers 1 fours · 0 sixes | caught · Robine Rijke · b Silver Siegers | 13 | 13 | 1 | 0 | 100.00 |
|---|
| S Kanankegebowled · Heather Siegers 0 fours · 0 sixes | bowled · b Heather Siegers | 3 | 8 | 0 | 0 | 37.50 |
|---|
| Amaya Rajapakshanot out 0 fours · 0 sixes | not out | 1* | 3 | 0 | 0 | 33.33 |
|---|
| Extras | byes: 0 · legbyes: 2 · wides: 6 · noballs: 0 · penalty: 0 | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bowler | Overs | M | R | W | Runs / 6 balls | WD | NB |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Iris Zwilling1 maidens · 2 wides · 0 no-balls | 4.0 | 1 | 14 | 3 | 3.50 | 2 | 0 |
| Robine Rijke0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 4.0 | 0 | 23 | 0 | 5.75 | 0 | 0 |
| Heather Siegers0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 4.0 | 0 | 17 | 1 | 4.25 | 0 | 0 |
| I van der Woning0 maidens · 3 wides · 0 no-balls | 1.0 | 0 | 11 | 0 | 11.00 | 3 | 0 |
| Caroline de Lange0 maidens · 1 wides · 0 no-balls | 4.0 | 0 | 11 | 2 | 2.75 | 1 | 0 |
| Silver Siegers1 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 3.0 | 1 | 8 | 2 | 2.67 | 0 | 0 |
1-0 (M Rathnayake, 1.0) · 2-13 (A Kontopirakis, 3.0) · 3-20 (Ilenia Sims, 4.5) · 4-26 (Chloe Piparo, 6.2) · 5-46 (Annie Wikman, 9.1) · 6-56 (C Mahamalage, 12.4) · 7-60 (D Nanayakkara, 14.2) · 8-75 (ECB Moore, 17.1) · 9-81 (S Kanankege, 19.2)
| Over / set | Runs | Score |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | 0 | 0/1 |
| 2 | 6 | 6/1 |
| 3 | 7 | 13/2 |
| 4 | 6 | 19/2 |
| 5 | 2 | 21/3 |
| 6 | 4 | 25/3 |
| 7 | 5 | 30/4 |
| 8 | 12 | 42/4 |
| 9 | 4 | 46/4 |
| 10 | 0 | 46/5 |
| 11 | 4 | 50/5 |
| 12 | 4 | 54/5 |
| 13 | 2 | 56/6 |
| 14 | 3 | 59/6 |
| 15 | 1 | 60/7 |
| 16 | 4 | 64/7 |
| 17 | 11 | 75/7 |
| 18 | 4 | 79/8 |
| 19 | 2 | 81/8 |
| 20 | 5 | 86/9 |
Chloe Piparo: Bahnfrend · CC BY-SA 4.0
Statistics are calculated from imported deliveries. Super overs are separate; source corrections may change recorded figures.
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