BangladeshversusNepal

16 Jun 2024 · T20

Arnos Vale Ground, Kingstown · Venue photograph

Recorded result

Bangladesh won by 21 runs

Bangladesh19.3 overs106/10 Nepal19.2 overs85/10 Arnos Vale Ground, Kingstown ↗

Win chances before this match

Before the toss

Bangladesh more likely to win

67%Bangladesh33%Nepal

Why

On results in T20 internationals so far, Bangladesh rate stronger than Nepal (1,592 vs 1,508 on our results rating)
In the last 1 T20 internationals between these sides, Bangladesh won 1 and Nepal won 0

Model tested on 2,789 past T20 internationals it never saw: its favourite won 73% of the time.

A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.

How this works

Worked out only from matches played before this one. The chances come from each side’s results rating in this format (an Elo rating that moves after every result), who is at home, recent form and past meetings. We tested it on matches from 2024 onwards that it had never seen. Upsets happen.

How the win chances moved

Ball by ball

Bangladesh started on 65%; Bangladesh batted first.

Bangladesh’s chance of winning (%) · Nepal is the rest

Bangladesh's chances ranged from 14% to 100% during the match (Nepal: 0% to 86%).

Biggest swings

2nd inns 5.4: Mustafizur Rahman to Aasif Sheikh, Aasif Sheikh out. Bangladesh up from 38% to 62%.
2nd inns 6.6: Tanzim Hasan Sakib to S Jora, S Jora out. Bangladesh up from 59% to 88%.
2nd inns 17.1: Taskin Ahmed to DS Airee, six by DS Airee. Nepal up from 33% to 54%.

Tested on every ball of 1,498 matches from 2024 it never saw: error score 0.130, against 0.197 for the pre-match chance alone (lower is better).

A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.

How this works

Before a ball is bowled the chance comes from the pre-match model. After each ball we compare the score with what usually follows from that many overs and wickets left at this ground (like a rain-rule resource table) and, in a chase, with the runs still needed. Early on the pre-match view counts most; late on the situation does.

Bangladesh106/10 Nepal85/10

Innings 1

Bangladesh

106/1019.3 overs

Batting, bowling & fall of wickets

Bangladesh batting
Batter	Dismissal	R	B	4s	6s	SR
Tanzid Hasancaught and bowled · Sompal Kami 0 fours · 0 sixes	caught and bowled · b Sompal Kami	0	1	0	0	0.00
Litton Dascaught · Aasif Sheikh · Sompal Kami 1 fours · 0 sixes	caught · Aasif Sheikh · b Sompal Kami	10	12	1	0	83.33
Najmul Hossain Shantobowled · Dipendra Singh Airee 0 fours · 0 sixes	bowled · b Dipendra Singh Airee	4	5	0	0	80.00
Shakib Al Hasanlbw · Rohit Kumar 2 fours · 0 sixes	lbw · b Rohit Kumar	17	22

Bowler	Overs	M	R	W	Runs / 6 balls	WD
Sompal Kami0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls	3.0	0	10	2	3.33	0
Dipendra Singh Airee0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls	3.3	0	22	2	6.29	0
Rohit Kumar0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls	4.0	0	20	2	5.00	0
Sandeep Lamichhane1 maidens · 1 wides · 0 no-balls	4.0	1	17	2	4.25	1
Kushal Bhurtel0 maidens · 2 wides · 0 no-balls	4.0	0	22	0	5.50	2
Abinash Bohara0 maidens · 2 wides · 0 no-balls	1.0	0	10	0	10.00	2

Over / set	Runs	Score
1	3	3/1
2	8	11/2
3	2	13/2
4	7	20/2
5	6	26/3
6	5	31/4
7	7	38/4
8	6	44/4
9	8	52/5
10	5	57/5
11	2	59/5
12	4	63/6
13	6	69/6
14	3	72/7
15	3	75/7
16	0	75/8
17	13	88/8
18	2	90/9
19	11	101/9
20	5	106/10

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