Mdina Cup · 2025 · Men

MaltaversusBelgium

30 May 2025 · T20

Recorded result

Belgium won by 6 wickets

Malta14.4 overs107/10 Belgium13.1 overs111/4 Stars Arena Hofstade, Zemst ↗

Win chances before this match

Before the toss

Belgium more likely to win

21%Malta79%Belgium

Why

On results in T20 internationals so far, Belgium rate stronger than Malta (1,466 vs 1,329 on our results rating)
In the last 7 T20 internationals between these sides, Belgium won 5 and Malta won 2
Belgium are playing at home in Belgium

Model tested on 2,789 past T20 internationals it never saw: its favourite won 73% of the time.

A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.

How this works

Worked out only from matches played before this one. The chances come from each side’s results rating in this format (an Elo rating that moves after every result), who is at home, recent form and past meetings. We tested it on matches from 2024 onwards that it had never seen. Upsets happen.

How the win chances moved

Ball by ball

Malta started on 20%; Malta batted first.

Malta’s chance of winning (%) · Belgium is the rest

Malta's chances ranged from 0% to 24% during the match (Belgium: 76% to 100%).

Biggest swings

0.6: R Thapliyal to DR Patankar, DR Patankar out. Belgium up from 76% to 83%.
7.2: Khalid Ahmadi to P Pushparajan, P Pushparajan out. Belgium up from 78% to 84%.
9.6: Iftikhar Kankhel to VP Thamotharam, VP Thamotharam out. Belgium up from 77% to 85%.

Tested on every ball of 1,498 matches from 2024 it never saw: error score 0.130, against 0.197 for the pre-match chance alone (lower is better).

A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.

How this works

Before a ball is bowled the chance comes from the pre-match model. After each ball we compare the score with what usually follows from that many overs and wickets left at this ground (like a rain-rule resource table) and, in a chase, with the runs still needed. Early on the pre-match view counts most; late on the situation does.

Malta107/10 Belgium111/4

Innings 1

Malta

107/1014.4 overs

Batting, bowling & fall of wickets

Malta batting
Batter	Dismissal	R	B	4s	6s	SR
DR Patankarcaught · A Raza · R Thapliyal 2 fours · 0 sixes	caught · A Raza · b R Thapliyal	8	6	2	0	133.33
R Dianishcaught · Khalid Ahmadi · Iftikhar Kankhel 0 fours · 1 sixes	caught · Khalid Ahmadi · b Iftikhar Kankhel	6	6	0	1	100.00
P Pushparajancaught · Iftikhar Kankhel · Khalid Ahmadi 2 fours · 1 sixes	caught · Iftikhar Kankhel · b Khalid Ahmadi	26	20	2	1	130.00
E Mathewcaught · Sheraz Sheikh · R Thapliyal 0 fours · 0 sixes	caught · Sheraz Sheikh · b R Thapliyal	5	6	0	0	83.33
VP Thamotharamcaught · A Raza · Iftikhar Kankhel 1 fours · 2 sixes	caught · A Raza · b Iftikhar Kankhel	22	15	1	2	146.67

Bowler	Overs	R	W	Runs / 6 balls	WD
R Thapliyal0 maidens · 1 wides · 0 no-balls	4.0	39	2	9.75	1
Iftikhar Kankhel0 maidens · 1 wides · 0 no-balls	4.0	32	3	8.00	1
Khalid Ahmadi0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls	4.0	19	3	4.75	0
Saber Zakhil0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls	1.0	4	0	4.00	0
Murid Ekrami0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls	1.4	10	2	6.00	0

Over / set	Runs	Score
1	8	8/1
2	6	14/2
3	6	20/2
4	12	32/2
5	9	41/3
6	3	44/3
7	16	60/3
8	8	68/4
9	4	72/4
10	8	80/5
11	7	87/6
12	2	89/8
13	7	96/9
14	8	104/9
15	3	107/10

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