GermanyversusDenmark

20 Jun 2026 · T20

Recorded result

Denmark won by 5 wickets

Germany20.0 overs141/9 Denmark18.5 overs144/5 Svanholm Park, Brondby ↗

Win chances before this match

Before the toss

Too close to call

50%Germany50%Denmark

Why

Denmark are playing at home in Denmark
In the last 8 T20 internationals between these sides, Germany won 5 and Denmark won 3
On results in T20 internationals so far, Germany rate stronger than Denmark (1,531 vs 1,523 on our results rating)

Model tested on 2,789 past T20 internationals it never saw: its favourite won 73% of the time.

A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.

How this works

Worked out only from matches played before this one. The chances come from each side’s results rating in this format (an Elo rating that moves after every result), who is at home, recent form and past meetings. We tested it on matches from 2024 onwards that it had never seen. Upsets happen.

How the win chances moved

Ball by ball

Germany started on 46%; Germany batted first.

Germany’s chance of winning (%) · Denmark is the rest

Germany's chances ranged from 0% to 82% during the match (Denmark: 18% to 100%).

Biggest swings

2nd inns 12.1: V Jatinder Kumar to S Thanikaithasan, S Thanikaithasan out. Germany up from 40% to 55%.
2nd inns 17.5: J van Heerden to HAM Shah, six by HAM Shah. Denmark up from 35% to 55%.
2nd inns 18.1: Shahid Afridi to HAM Shah, six by HAM Shah. Denmark up from 67% to 87%.

Tested on every ball of 1,498 matches from 2024 it never saw: error score 0.130, against 0.197 for the pre-match chance alone (lower is better).

A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.

How this works

Before a ball is bowled the chance comes from the pre-match model. After each ball we compare the score with what usually follows from that many overs and wickets left at this ground (like a rain-rule resource table) and, in a chase, with the runs still needed. Early on the pre-match view counts most; late on the situation does.

Germany141/9 Denmark144/5

Innings 1

Germany

141/920.0 overs

Batting, bowling & fall of wickets

Germany batting
Batter	Dismissal	R	B	4s	6s	SR
Musadiq Ahmedcaught · Hamid Shah · Surya Anand 1 fours · 0 sixes	caught · Hamid Shah · b Surya Anand	4	2	1	0	200.00
Shahid Afridi (2)caught · Shangeev Thanikaithasan · Surya Anand 0 fours · 0 sixes	caught · Shangeev Thanikaithasan · b Surya Anand	0	2	0	0	0.00
Joshua van Heerdencaught · Taranjit Bharaj · Surya Anand 1 fours · 0 sixes	caught · Taranjit Bharaj · b Surya Anand	13	14	1	0	92.86
Harmanjot Singhlbw · Hamid Shah 3 fours · 1 sixes	lbw · b Hamid Shah	39	35	3	1	111.43
K Klessecaught · Musa Shaheen · Hamid Shah 2 fours · 2 sixes	caught · Musa Shaheen · b Hamid Shah	51	40	2	2	127.50

Bowler	Overs	R	W	Runs / 6 balls	WD
Surya Anand0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls	4.0	24	3	6.00	0
Simon Sorensen0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls	2.0	18	0	9.00	0
Eshan Karimi0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls	4.0	21	1	5.25	0
Mustakim Aslam0 maidens · 1 wides · 0 no-balls	4.0	38	1	9.50	1
Abdullah Mahmood0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls	2.0	16	0	8.00	0
Hamid Shah0 maidens · 1 wides · 0 no-balls	4.0	23	3	5.75	1

Over / set	Runs	Score
1	5	5/2
2	3	8/2
3	7	15/2
4	15	30/2
5	6	36/3
6	6	42/3
7	4	46/3
8	4	50/3
9	8	58/3
10	9	67/3
11	17	84/3
12	7	91/3
13	7	98/3
14	4	102/4
15	4	106/5
16	6	112/7
17	6	118/7
18	8	126/8
19	9	135/9
20	6	141/9

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