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Photo: CAPTAIN RAJU
Original photograph ↗ · CC BY-SA 4.0
Resized and converted to WebP; original framing preserved.
Historical photograph; current appearance and conditions may differ.
Sri Lanka tour of Bangladesh · 2023/24 · Men
18 Mar 2024 · ODI
Chittagong Divisional Stadium · Venue photographRecorded result
Too close to call
Model tested on 501 past ODIs it never saw: its favourite won 63% of the time.
A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.
Worked out only from matches played before this one. The chances come from each side’s results rating in this format (an Elo rating that moves after every result), who is at home, recent form and past meetings. We tested it on matches from 2024 onwards that it had never seen. Upsets happen.
Sri Lanka started on 46%; Sri Lanka batted first.
Innings 1
| Batter | Dismissal | R | B | 4s | 6s | SR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Pathum Nissankalbw · Taskin Ahmed 0 fours · 0 sixes | lbw · b Taskin Ahmed | 1 | 8 | 0 | 0 | 12.50 |
| Avishka Fernandocaught · Mushfiqur Rahim · Taskin Ahmed 1 fours · 0 sixes | caught · Mushfiqur Rahim · b Taskin Ahmed | 4 | 6 | 1 | 0 | 66.67 |
| Kusal Mendiscaught · Mushfiqur Rahim · Rishad Hossain 3 fours · 0 sixes | caught · Mushfiqur Rahim · b Rishad Hossain | 29 | 51 | 3 | 0 | 56.86 |
| Sadeera Samarawickramacaught · Mushfiqur Rahim · Mustafizur Rahman 2 fours · 0 sixes | caught · Mushfiqur Rahim · b Mustafizur Rahman | 14 | 15 | 2 | 0 | 93.33 |
| Charith Asalankacaught · Mushfiqur Rahim · Mustafizur Rahman 5 fours · 0 sixes | caught · Mushfiqur Rahim · b Mustafizur Rahman | 37 | 46 |
Sri Lanka's chances ranged from 0% to 48% during the match (Bangladesh: 52% to 100%).
Tested on every ball of 247 matches from 2024 it never saw: error score 0.171, against 0.234 for the pre-match chance alone (lower is better).
A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.
Before a ball is bowled the chance comes from the pre-match model. After each ball we compare the score with what usually follows from that many overs and wickets left at this ground (like a rain-rule resource table) and, in a chase, with the runs still needed. Early on the pre-match view counts most; late on the situation does.
| 5 |
| 0 |
| 80.43 |
 Janith Liyanagenot out11 fours · 2 sixes | not out | 101* | 102 | 11 | 2 | 99.02 |
|---|
| Dunith Wellalagecaught · Soumya Sarkar · Mehedi Hasan 0 fours · 0 sixes | caught · Soumya Sarkar · b Mehedi Hasan | 1 | 18 | 0 | 0 | 5.56 |
|---|
 Wanindu Hasarangabowled · Mehedi Hasan0 fours · 1 sixes | bowled · b Mehedi Hasan | 11 | 8 | 0 | 1 | 137.50 |
|---|
| Mahesh Theekshanacaught · Tanzid Hasan · Soumya Sarkar 0 fours · 0 sixes | caught · Tanzid Hasan · b Soumya Sarkar | 15 | 40 | 0 | 0 | 37.50 |
|---|
| Pramod Madushancaught · Anamul Haque · Taskin Ahmed 0 fours · 0 sixes | caught · Anamul Haque · b Taskin Ahmed | 3 | 6 | 0 | 0 | 50.00 |
|---|
| Lahiru Kumararun out · Tawhid Hridoy, Mushfiqur Rahim · Taskin Ahmed 0 fours · 0 sixes | run out · Tawhid Hridoy, Mushfiqur Rahim | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 100.00 |
|---|
| Extras | byes: 0 · legbyes: 0 · wides: 17 · noballs: 1 · penalty: 0 | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bowler | Overs | M | R | W | Runs / 6 balls | WD | NB |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 Shariful Islam0 maidens · 1 wides · 0 no-balls | 10.0 | 0 | 55 | 0 | 5.50 | 1 | 0 |
 Taskin Ahmed1 maidens · 2 wides · 0 no-balls | 10.0 | 1 | 42 | 3 | 4.20 | 2 | 0 |
 Mustafizur Rahman1 maidens · 6 wides · 1 no-balls | 9.0 | 1 | 39 | 2 | 4.33 | 6 | 1 |
 Soumya Sarkar0 maidens · 1 wides · 0 no-balls | 2.0 | 0 | 10 | 1 | 5.00 | 1 | 0 |
 Mehedi Hasan1 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 10.0 | 1 | 38 | 2 | 3.80 | 0 | 0 |
 Rishad Hossain0 maidens · 7 wides · 0 no-balls | 9.0 | 0 | 51 | 1 | 5.67 | 7 | 0 |
1-1 (Pathum Nissanka, 1.3) · 2-15 (Avishka Fernando, 3.5) · 3-41 (Sadeera Samarawickrama, 10.2) · 4-74 (Kusal Mendis, 17.1) · 5-117 (Charith Asalanka, 25.0) · 6-136 (Dunith Wellalage, 31.0) · 7-154 (Wanindu Hasaranga, 34.1) · 8-214 (Mahesh Theekshana, 47.1) · 9-234 (Pramod Madushan, 49.5) · 10-235 (Lahiru Kumara, 50.0)
| Over / set | Runs | Score |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | 1 | 1/0 |
| 2 | 2 | 3/1 |
| 3 | 8 | 11/1 |
| 4 | 4 | 15/2 |
| 5 | 2 | 17/2 |
| 6 | 6 | 23/2 |
| 7 | 2 | 25/2 |
| 8 | 0 | 25/2 |
| 9 | 10 | 35/2 |
| 10 | 4 | 39/2 |
| 11 | 4 | 43/3 |
| 12 | 6 | 49/3 |
| 13 | 2 | 51/3 |
| 14 | 7 | 58/3 |
| 15 | 9 | 67/3 |
| 16 | 5 | 72/3 |
| 17 | 2 | 74/3 |
| 18 | 6 | 80/4 |
| 19 | 1 | 81/4 |
| 20 | 9 | 90/4 |
| 21 | 2 | 92/4 |
| 22 | 4 | 96/4 |
| 23 | 8 | 104/4 |
| 24 | 9 | 113/4 |
| 25 | 4 | 117/5 |
| 26 | 8 | 125/5 |
| 27 | 0 | 125/5 |
| 28 | 1 | 126/5 |
| 29 | 1 | 127/5 |
| 30 | 7 | 134/5 |
| 31 | 2 | 136/6 |
| 32 | 6 | 142/6 |
| 33 | 8 | 150/6 |
| 34 | 4 | 154/6 |
| 35 | 0 | 154/7 |
| 36 | 4 | 158/7 |
| 37 | 4 | 162/7 |
| 38 | 3 | 165/7 |
| 39 | 1 | 166/7 |
| 40 | 8 | 174/7 |
| 41 | 2 | 176/7 |
| 42 | 1 | 177/7 |
| 43 | 8 | 185/7 |
| 44 | 7 | 192/7 |
| 45 | 4 | 196/7 |
| 46 | 9 | 205/7 |
| 47 | 8 | 213/7 |
| 48 | 5 | 218/8 |
| 49 | 10 | 228/8 |
| 50 | 7 | 235/10 |
Tawhid Hridoy: Niriho khoka · CC BY 4.0
Rishad Hossain: Press Information Department · Public domain
Wanindu Hasaranga: 04 ATM 04 · CC BY-SA 4.0
Mahmudullah: Nurunnaby Chowdhury (Hasive) · CC BY-SA 4.0
Taskin Ahmed: Mahbub Ali Zaki · CC BY-SA 4.0
Soumya Sarkar: Nurunnaby Chowdhury (Hasive) · CC BY-SA 4.0
Janith Liyanage: Neb · CC BY-SA 4.0
Anamul Haque: Pro-Vc AIUB · CC BY 4.0
Mustafizur Rahman: Nurunnaby Chowdhury (Hasive) · CC BY-SA 4.0
Najmul Hossain Shanto: Rocky Masum · CC BY-SA 4.0
Mushfiqur Rahim: Rasi56 · CC BY-SA 4.0
Shariful Islam: Press Information Department · Public domain
Mehedi Hasan: Nurunnaby Chowdhury (Hasive) · CC BY-SA 4.0
Statistics are calculated from imported deliveries. Super overs are separate; source corrections may change recorded figures.
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