Sri LankaversusAustralia

5 Oct 2024 · T20

Sharjah Cricket Stadium · Venue photograph

Recorded result

Australia won by 6 wickets

Sri Lanka20.0 overs93/7 Australia14.2 overs94/4 Sharjah Cricket Stadium ↗

Win chances before this match

Before the toss

Australia more likely to win

27%Sri Lanka73%Australia

Why

In the last 7 T20 internationals between these sides, Australia won 7 and Sri Lanka won 0
On results in T20 internationals so far, Australia rate stronger than Sri Lanka (1,713 vs 1,662 on our results rating)

Model tested on 2,789 past T20 internationals it never saw: its favourite won 73% of the time.

A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.

How this works

Worked out only from matches played before this one. The chances come from each side’s results rating in this format (an Elo rating that moves after every result), who is at home, recent form and past meetings. We tested it on matches from 2024 onwards that it had never seen. Upsets happen.

How the win chances moved

Ball by ball

Sri Lanka started on 26%; Sri Lanka batted first.

Sri Lanka’s chance of winning (%) · Australia is the rest

Sri Lanka's chances ranged from 0% to 27% during the match (Australia: 73% to 100%).

Biggest swings

2.6: ML Schutt to RMVD Gunaratne, RMVD Gunaratne out. Australia up from 76% to 81%.
2nd inns 2.1: KDU Prabodhani to BL Mooney, G Wareham out. Sri Lanka up from 10% to 15%.
2nd inns 5.3: BMSM Kumari to EA Perry, EA Perry out. Sri Lanka up from 7% to 12%.

Tested on every ball of 1,050 matches from 2024 it never saw: error score 0.120, against 0.177 for the pre-match chance alone (lower is better).

A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.

How this works

Before a ball is bowled the chance comes from the pre-match model. After each ball we compare the score with what usually follows from that many overs and wickets left at this ground (like a rain-rule resource table) and, in a chase, with the runs still needed. Early on the pre-match view counts most; late on the situation does.

Sri Lanka93/7 Australia94/4

Innings 1

Sri Lanka

93/720.0 overs

Batting, bowling & fall of wickets

Sri Lanka batting
Batter	Dismissal	R	B	4s	SR
Vishmi Gunaratnelbw · Megan Schutt 0 fours · 0 sixes	lbw · b Megan Schutt	0	10	0	0.00
Chamari Atapattulbw · Ashleigh Gardner 0 fours · 0 sixes	lbw · b Ashleigh Gardner	3	12	0	25.00
Harshitha Madavicaught and bowled · Sophie Molineux 2 fours · 0 sixes	caught and bowled · b Sophie Molineux	23	35	2	65.71
Kavisha Dilharilbw · Sophie Molineux 0 fours · 0 sixes	lbw · b Sophie Molineux	5	6	0

Bowler	Overs	M	R	W	Runs / 6 balls	WD	NB
Megan Schutt1 maidens · 0 wides · 2 no-balls	4.0	1	12	3	3.00	0	2
Ashleigh Gardner1 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls	4.0	1	14	1	3.50	0	0
Darcie Brown0 maidens · 2 wides · 3 no-balls	1.0	0	12	0	12.00	2	3
Sophie Molineux0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls	4.0	0	20	2	5.00	0	0
Georgia Wareham0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls	4.0	0	21	1	5.25	0	0
Annabel Sutherland1 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls	3.0	1	8	0	2.67	0	0

Over / set	Runs	Score
1	0	0/0
2	1	1/0
3	5	6/1
4	2	8/2
5	3	11/2
6	12	23/2
7	4	27/3
8	8	35/3
9	5	40/3
10	3	43/3
11	7	50/3
12	1	51/3
13	5	56/4
14	5	61/4
15	4	65/4
16	6	71/5
17	6	77/5
18	7	84/5
19	5	89/5
20	4	93/7

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