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ICC Women's T20 World Cup Europe Division 2 Qualifier · 2025 · Women
25 May 2025 · T20
Italy more likely to win
Model tested on 2,789 past T20 internationals it never saw: its favourite won 73% of the time.
A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.
Worked out only from matches played before this one. The chances come from each side’s results rating in this format (an Elo rating that moves after every result), who is at home, recent form and past meetings. We tested it on matches from 2024 onwards that it had never seen. Upsets happen.
Jersey started on 38%; Jersey batted first.
Jersey's chances ranged from 0% to 81% during the match (Italy: 19% to 100%).
Tested on every ball of 1,050 matches from 2024 it never saw: error score 0.120, against 0.177 for the pre-match chance alone (lower is better).
A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.
Before a ball is bowled the chance comes from the pre-match model. After each ball we compare the score with what usually follows from that many overs and wickets left at this ground (like a rain-rule resource table) and, in a chase, with the runs still needed. Early on the pre-match view counts most; late on the situation does.
Innings 1
| Batter | Dismissal | R | B | 4s | 6s | SR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Analise Merrittbowled · K Peddrick 7 fours · 3 sixes | bowled · b K Peddrick | 77 | 56 | 7 | 3 | 137.50 |
| Aimee Aikenheadcaught · Annie Wikman · C Mahamalage 1 fours · 0 sixes | caught · Annie Wikman · b C Mahamalage | 9 | 8 | 1 | 0 | 112.50 |
| Grace Wetherallrun out · M Rathnayake, EL Bartram · Ilenia Sims 4 fours · 2 sixes | run out · M Rathnayake, EL Bartram | 36 | 24 | 4 | 2 | 150.00 |
| Trinity Smithbowled · Ilenia Sims 0 fours · 0 sixes | bowled · b Ilenia Sims | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 |
| Florence Tanguycaught · Chloe Piparo · K Peddrick 1 fours · 0 sixes | caught · Chloe Piparo · b K Peddrick | 5 | 5 | 1 | 0 | 100.00 |
| run out · S Kanankege |
| 2 |
| 5 |
| 0 |
| 0 |
| 40.00 |
| Chloe Greechanbowled · Ilenia Sims 0 fours · 0 sixes | bowled · b Ilenia Sims | 2 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 50.00 |
|---|
| Lily Greiglbw · T Araliya 0 fours · 0 sixes | lbw · b T Araliya | 4 | 9 | 0 | 0 | 44.44 |
|---|
| A Mossopnot out 0 fours · 0 sixes | not out | 1* | 7 | 0 | 0 | 14.29 |
|---|
| Nia Greigcaught · EL Bartram · K Peddrick 0 fours · 0 sixes | caught · EL Bartram · b K Peddrick | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 |
|---|
| O Bastinnot out 0 fours · 0 sixes | not out | 3* | 4 | 0 | 0 | 75.00 |
|---|
| Extras | byes: 5 · legbyes: 0 · wides: 13 · noballs: 5 · penalty: 0 | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bowler | Overs | M | R | W | Runs / 6 balls | WD | NB |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| C Mahamalage0 maidens · 1 wides · 0 no-balls | 4.0 | 0 | 35 | 1 | 8.75 | 1 | 0 |
| S Kanankege0 maidens · 2 wides · 1 no-balls | 2.0 | 0 | 23 | 0 | 11.50 | 2 | 1 |
| EL Bartram0 maidens · 3 wides · 0 no-balls | 1.0 | 0 | 19 | 0 | 19.00 | 3 | 0 |
| K Peddrick0 maidens · 4 wides · 0 no-balls | 4.0 | 0 | 28 | 3 | 7.00 | 4 | 0 |
| Ilenia Sims0 maidens · 1 wides · 2 no-balls | 4.0 | 0 | 20 | 2 | 5.00 | 1 | 2 |
| T Araliya0 maidens · 2 wides · 1 no-balls | 4.0 | 0 | 17 | 1 | 4.25 | 2 | 1 |
| D Nanayakkara0 maidens · 0 wides · 1 no-balls | 1.0 | 0 | 15 | 0 | 15.00 | 0 | 1 |
1-18 (Aimee Aikenhead, 2.3) · 2-92 (Grace Wetherall, 9.3) · 3-92 (Trinity Smith, 9.5) · 4-100 (Florence Tanguy, 10.5) · 5-111 (Mia Maguire, 12.4) · 6-117 (Chloe Greechan, 13.4) · 7-135 (Lily Greig, 16.1) · 8-158 (Analise Merritt, 19.1) · 9-158 (Nia Greig, 19.2)
| Over / set | Runs | Score |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | 7 | 7/0 |
| 2 | 9 | 16/0 |
| 3 | 2 | 18/1 |
| 4 | 18 | 36/1 |
| 5 | 13 | 49/1 |
| 6 | 19 | 68/1 |
| 7 | 4 | 72/1 |
| 8 | 8 | 80/1 |
| 9 | 11 | 91/1 |
| 10 | 2 | 93/3 |
| 11 | 10 | 103/4 |
| 12 | 5 | 108/4 |
| 13 | 5 | 113/5 |
| 14 | 5 | 118/6 |
| 15 | 2 | 120/6 |
| 16 | 15 | 135/6 |
| 17 | 1 | 136/7 |
| 18 | 13 | 149/7 |
| 19 | 9 | 158/7 |
| 20 | 4 | 162/9 |
Chloe Piparo: Bahnfrend · CC BY-SA 4.0
Statistics are calculated from imported deliveries. Super overs are separate; source corrections may change recorded figures.
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