Antigua and Barbuda FalconsversusSt Kitts and Nevis Patriots

14 Aug 2025 · T20

Warner Park, St Kitts · Venue photograph

Recorded result

St Kitts and Nevis Patriots won by 6 wickets

Antigua and Barbuda Falcons17.1 overs121/10 St Kitts and Nevis Patriots15.0 overs125/4 Warner Park, St Kitts ↗

How the win chances moved

Ball by ball

Antigua and Barbuda Falcons started on 50%; Antigua and Barbuda Falcons batted first.

Antigua and Barbuda Falcons’s chance of winning (%) · St Kitts and Nevis Patriots is the rest

Antigua and Barbuda Falcons's chances ranged from 0% to 54% during the match (St Kitts and Nevis Patriots: 46% to 100%).

Biggest swings

0.3: KR Mayers to J Andrew, J Andrew out. St Kitts and Nevis Patriots up from 47% to 62%.
3.5: Fazalhaq Farooqi to RRS Cornwall, RRS Cornwall out. St Kitts and Nevis Patriots up from 51% to 63%.
11.2: Fazalhaq Farooqi to K Gore, K Gore out. St Kitts and Nevis Patriots up from 57% to 70%.

Tested on every ball of 1,336 matches from 2024 it never saw: error score 0.175, against 0.247 for the pre-match chance alone (lower is better).

A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.

How this works

Before a ball is bowled the chance comes from the pre-match model. After each ball we compare the score with what usually follows from that many overs and wickets left at this ground (like a rain-rule resource table) and, in a chase, with the runs still needed. Early on the pre-match view counts most; late on the situation does.

Antigua and Barbuda Falcons121/10 St Kitts and Nevis Patriots125/4

Innings 1