West IndiesversusAustralia

2 Apr 2026 · ODI

Warner Park, St Kitts · Venue photograph

Recorded result

Australia won by 9 wickets

West Indies35.4 overs136/10 Australia19.4 overs137/1 Warner Park, St Kitts ↗

Win chances before this match

Before the toss

Australia more likely to win

9%West Indies91%Australia

Why

On results in ODIs so far, Australia rate stronger than West Indies (1,925 vs 1,405 on our results rating)
In the last 10 ODIs between these sides, Australia won 10 and West Indies won 0
West Indies are playing at home in Saint Kitts and Nevis

Model tested on 501 past ODIs it never saw: its favourite won 63% of the time.

A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.

How this works

Worked out only from matches played before this one. The chances come from each side’s results rating in this format (an Elo rating that moves after every result), who is at home, recent form and past meetings. We tested it on matches from 2024 onwards that it had never seen. Upsets happen.

How the win chances moved

Ball by ball

West Indies started on 8%; West Indies batted first.

West Indies’s chance of winning (%) · Australia is the rest

West Indies's chances ranged from 0% to 16% during the match (Australia: 84% to 100%).

Biggest swings

5.5: LK Hamilton to DJS Dottin, DJS Dottin out. Australia up from 84% to 89%.
10.3: NJ Carey to SS Sawh, SS Sawh out. Australia up from 90% to 93%.
13.1: A Gardner to SR Taylor, SR Taylor out. Australia up from 92% to 96%.

Tested on every ball of 175 matches from 2024 it never saw: error score 0.129, against 0.189 for the pre-match chance alone (lower is better).

A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.

How this works

Before a ball is bowled the chance comes from the pre-match model. After each ball we compare the score with what usually follows from that many overs and wickets left at this ground (like a rain-rule resource table) and, in a chase, with the runs still needed. Early on the pre-match view counts most; late on the situation does.

West Indies136/10 Australia137/1

Innings 1

West Indies

136/1035.4 overs

Batting, bowling & fall of wickets

West Indies batting
Batter	Dismissal	R	B	4s	6s	SR
Hayley Matthewscaught · Georgia Voll · Alana King 3 fours · 0 sixes	caught · Georgia Voll · b Alana King	34	48	3	0	70.83
Deandra Dottincaught · Phoebe Litchfield · Lucy Hamilton 3 fours · 0 sixes	caught · Phoebe Litchfield · b Lucy Hamilton	22	19	3	0	115.79
SS Sawhcaught · Georgia Voll · Nicola Carey 0 fours · 0 sixes	caught · Georgia Voll · b Nicola Carey	3	16	0	0	18.75
Stafanie Taylorcaught · Beth Mooney · Ashleigh Gardner 0 fours · 0 sixes	caught · Beth Mooney

Bowler	Overs	R	W	Runs / 6 balls	WD
Darcie Brown0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls	3.0	20	0	6.67	0
Lucy Hamilton0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls	4.0	22	1	5.50	0
Nicola Carey0 maidens · 2 wides · 0 no-balls	5.0	17	1	3.40	2
Ashleigh Gardner0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls	7.4	29	2	3.78	0
Alana King0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls	10.0	19	5	1.90	0
Georgia Wareham0 maidens · 1 wides · 0 no-balls	3.0	20	0	6.67	1
Tahlia McGrath0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls	3.0	8	1	2.67	0

Over / set	Runs	Score
1	7	7/0
2	4	11/0
3	8	19/0
4	8	27/0
5	5	32/0
6	6	38/1
7	2	40/1
8	4	44/1
9	4	48/1
10	1	49/1
11	1	50/2
12	2	52/2
13	4	56/2
14	4	60/3
15	6	66/3
16	5	71/3
17	2	73/3
18	4	77/3
19	1	78/5
20	6	84/5
21	1	85/5
22	3	88/5
23	5	93/5
24	13	106/5
25	4	110/5
26	4	114/5
27	1	115/6
28	5	120/7
29	1	121/8
30	1	122/8
31	1	123/9
32	2	125/9
33	2	127/9
34	7	134/9
35	1	135/9
36	1	136/10

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