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Photo: Kieran Connellan from Hamilton, New Zealand
Original photograph ↗ · CC BY-SA 2.0
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England Women tour of New Zealand · 2023/24 · Women
4 Apr 2024 · ODI
Seddon Park, Hamilton · Venue photographRecorded result
England more likely to win
Model tested on 501 past ODIs it never saw: its favourite won 63% of the time.
A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.
Worked out only from matches played before this one. The chances come from each side’s results rating in this format (an Elo rating that moves after every result), who is at home, recent form and past meetings. We tested it on matches from 2024 onwards that it had never seen. Upsets happen.
England started on 69%; England batted first.
Innings 1
| Batter | Dismissal | R | B | 4s | 6s | SR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 Tammy Beaumontcaught · Georgia Plimmer · Hannah Rowe9 fours · 0 sixes | caught · Georgia Plimmer · b Hannah Rowe | 81 | 96 | 9 | 0 | 84.38 |
| Maia Bouchiercaught · Hannah Rowe · Lea Tahuhu 3 fours · 0 sixes | caught · Hannah Rowe · b Lea Tahuhu | 20 | 30 | 3 | 0 | 66.67 |
 Heather Knightlbw · Jess Kerr4 fours · 0 sixes | lbw · b Jess Kerr | 37 | 43 | 4 | 0 | 86.05 |
 Nat Sciver-Bruntbowled · Jess Kerr0 fours · 0 sixes | bowled · b Jess Kerr | 2 | 9 | 0 | 0 |
England's chances ranged from 47% to 98% during the match (New Zealand: 2% to 53%).
Tested on every ball of 175 matches from 2024 it never saw: error score 0.129, against 0.189 for the pre-match chance alone (lower is better).
A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.
Before a ball is bowled the chance comes from the pre-match model. After each ball we compare the score with what usually follows from that many overs and wickets left at this ground (like a rain-rule resource table) and, in a chase, with the runs still needed. Early on the pre-match view counts most; late on the situation does.
| 22.22 |
 Alice Capseystumped · Izzy Gaze · Fran Jonas0 fours · 0 sixes | stumped · Izzy Gaze · b Fran Jonas | 6 | 19 | 0 | 0 | 31.58 |
|---|
 Danielle Wyattcaught · Izzy Gaze · Fran Jonas0 fours · 0 sixes | caught · Izzy Gaze · b Fran Jonas | 2 | 8 | 0 | 0 | 25.00 |
|---|
 Amy Jonescaught · Brooke Halliday · Lea Tahuhu7 fours · 0 sixes | caught · Brooke Halliday · b Lea Tahuhu | 48 | 40 | 7 | 0 | 120.00 |
|---|
 Charlie Deanbowled · Amelia Kerr0 fours · 0 sixes | bowled · b Amelia Kerr | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 50.00 |
|---|
 Sophie Ecclestonecaught · Maddy Green · Suzie Bates1 fours · 1 sixes | caught · Maddy Green · b Suzie Bates | 14 | 16 | 1 | 1 | 87.50 |
|---|
 Kate Crossnot out1 fours · 0 sixes | not out | 20* | 25 | 1 | 0 | 80.00 |
|---|
 Lauren Bellcaught · Hannah Rowe · Suzie Bates1 fours · 0 sixes | caught · Hannah Rowe · b Suzie Bates | 6 | 6 | 1 | 0 | 100.00 |
|---|
| Extras | byes: 5 · legbyes: 0 · wides: 10 · noballs: 0 · penalty: 0 | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bowler | Overs | M | R | W | Runs / 6 balls | WD | NB |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jess Kerr0 maidens · 2 wides · 0 no-balls | 10.0 | 0 | 50 | 2 | 5.00 | 2 | 0 |
| Hannah Rowe1 maidens · 3 wides · 0 no-balls | 7.0 | 1 | 41 | 1 | 5.86 | 3 | 0 |
 Lea Tahuhu0 maidens · 1 wides · 0 no-balls | 8.0 | 0 | 50 | 2 | 6.25 | 1 | 0 |
| Fran Jonas0 maidens · 4 wides · 0 no-balls | 10.0 | 0 | 47 | 2 | 4.70 | 4 | 0 |
 Amelia Kerr1 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 10.0 | 1 | 35 | 1 | 3.50 | 0 | 0 |
 Suzie Bates0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 4.0 | 0 | 24 | 2 | 6.00 | 0 | 0 |
1-37 (Maia Bouchier, 8.5) · 2-107 (Heather Knight, 23.3) · 3-114 (Nat Sciver-Brunt, 26.0) · 4-143 (Alice Capsey, 31.3) · 5-158 (Tammy Beaumont, 33.4) · 6-163 (Danielle Wyatt, 35.3) · 7-166 (Charlie Dean, 36.1) · 8-190 (Sophie Ecclestone, 40.4) · 9-245 (Amy Jones, 47.5) · 10-252 (Lauren Bell, 49.0)
| Over / set | Runs | Score |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | 4 | 4/0 |
| 2 | 4 | 8/0 |
| 3 | 1 | 9/0 |
| 4 | 0 | 9/0 |
| 5 | 5 | 14/0 |
| 6 | 6 | 20/0 |
| 7 | 8 | 28/0 |
| 8 | 7 | 35/0 |
| 9 | 4 | 39/1 |
| 10 | 5 | 44/1 |
| 11 | 6 | 50/1 |
| 12 | 3 | 53/1 |
| 13 | 6 | 59/1 |
| 14 | 1 | 60/1 |
| 15 | 5 | 65/1 |
| 16 | 9 | 74/1 |
| 17 | 2 | 76/1 |
| 18 | 6 | 82/1 |
| 19 | 2 | 84/1 |
| 20 | 2 | 86/1 |
| 21 | 8 | 94/1 |
| 22 | 4 | 98/1 |
| 23 | 4 | 102/1 |
| 24 | 5 | 107/2 |
| 25 | 3 | 110/2 |
| 26 | 4 | 114/3 |
| 27 | 2 | 116/3 |
| 28 | 2 | 118/3 |
| 29 | 3 | 121/3 |
| 30 | 7 | 128/3 |
| 31 | 13 | 141/3 |
| 32 | 7 | 148/4 |
| 33 | 4 | 152/4 |
| 34 | 7 | 159/5 |
| 35 | 4 | 163/5 |
| 36 | 3 | 166/6 |
| 37 | 6 | 172/7 |
| 38 | 3 | 175/7 |
| 39 | 7 | 182/7 |
| 40 | 7 | 189/7 |
| 41 | 3 | 192/8 |
| 42 | 3 | 195/8 |
| 43 | 3 | 198/8 |
| 44 | 14 | 212/8 |
| 45 | 1 | 213/8 |
| 46 | 12 | 225/8 |
| 47 | 12 | 237/8 |
| 48 | 9 | 246/9 |
| 49 | 6 | 252/10 |
Heather Knight: Bahnfrend · CC BY-SA 4.0
Charlie Dean: Mpk662 · CC BY-SA 4.0
Amy Jones: Bahnfrend · CC BY-SA 4.0
Sophie Ecclestone: Harrias · CC BY-SA 4.0
Maddy Green: Bahnfrend · CC BY-SA 4.0
Kate Cross: Bahnfrend · CC BY-SA 4.0
Nat Sciver-Brunt: Bahnfrend · CC BY-SA 4.0
Amelia Kerr: Bahnfrend · CC BY-SA 4.0
Bernadine Bezuidenhout: Bernadine Bezuidenhout · CC BY-SA 4.0
Tammy Beaumont: Bahnfrend · CC BY-SA 4.0
Alice Capsey: Bahnfrend · CC BY-SA 4.0
Danielle Wyatt: Harrias · CC BY-SA 3.0
Suzie Bates: paddynapper · CC BY-SA 2.0
Lauren Bell: Mpk662 · CC BY-SA 4.0
Lea Tahuhu: Bahnfrend · CC BY-SA 4.0
Statistics are calculated from imported deliveries. Super overs are separate; source corrections may change recorded figures.
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