ZimbabweversusSouth Africa

14 Jul 2025 · T20

Harare Sports Club · Venue photograph

Recorded result

South Africa won by 5 wickets

Zimbabwe20.0 overs141/6 South Africa15.5 overs142/5 Harare Sports Club ↗

Win chances before this match

Before the toss

South Africa more likely to win

42%Zimbabwe58%South Africa

Why

In the last 5 T20 internationals between these sides, South Africa won 5 and Zimbabwe won 0
Zimbabwe are playing at home in Zimbabwe
On results in T20 internationals so far, Zimbabwe rate stronger than South Africa (1,589 vs 1,580 on our results rating)

Model tested on 2,789 past T20 internationals it never saw: its favourite won 73% of the time.

A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.

How this works

Worked out only from matches played before this one. The chances come from each side’s results rating in this format (an Elo rating that moves after every result), who is at home, recent form and past meetings. We tested it on matches from 2024 onwards that it had never seen. Upsets happen.

How the win chances moved

Ball by ball

Zimbabwe started on 40%; Zimbabwe batted first.

Zimbabwe’s chance of winning (%) · South Africa is the rest

Zimbabwe's chances ranged from 0% to 55% during the match (South Africa: 46% to 100%).

Biggest swings

2nd inns 0.1: R Ngarava to LG Pretorius, LG Pretorius out. Zimbabwe up from 31% to 44%.
2nd inns 2.3: R Ngarava to RR Hendricks, RR Hendricks out. Zimbabwe up from 33% to 46%.
2nd inns 5.4: T Gwandu to HE van der Dussen, HE van der Dussen out. Zimbabwe up from 36% to 51%.

Tested on every ball of 1,498 matches from 2024 it never saw: error score 0.130, against 0.197 for the pre-match chance alone (lower is better).

A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.

How this works

Before a ball is bowled the chance comes from the pre-match model. After each ball we compare the score with what usually follows from that many overs and wickets left at this ground (like a rain-rule resource table) and, in a chase, with the runs still needed. Early on the pre-match view counts most; late on the situation does.

Zimbabwe141/6 South Africa142/5

Innings 1

Zimbabwe

141/620.0 overs

Batting, bowling & fall of wickets

Zimbabwe batting
Batter	Dismissal	R	B	4s	6s	SR
Wesley Madheverehit wicket · Lungi Ngidi 0 fours · 0 sixes	hit wicket · b Lungi Ngidi	1	9	0	0	11.11
Brian Bennettcaught · Reeza Hendricks · George Linde 4 fours · 0 sixes	caught · Reeza Hendricks · b George Linde	30	28	4	0	107.14
Clive Madandebowled · Nqaba Peter 0 fours · 0 sixes	bowled · b Nqaba Peter	8	16	0	0	50.00
Sikandar Razanot out 3 fours · 2 sixes	not out	54*	38	3	2	142.11
Ryan Burlcaught · Rubin Hermann · Nandre Burger3 fours · 1 sixes

Bowler	Overs	M	R	W	Runs / 6 balls	WD	NB
Lungi Ngidi1 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls	4.0	1	15	1	3.75	0	0
Nandre Burger0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls	4.0	0	22	1	5.50	0	0
Corbin Bosch0 maidens · 1 wides · 1 no-balls	4.0	0	36	0	9.00	1	1
George Linde0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls	3.0	0	10	3	3.33	0	0
Nqaba Peter0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls	3.0	0	22	1	7.33	0	0
Andile Simelane0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls	2.0	0	29	0	14.50	0	0

Over / set	Runs	Score
1	5	5/0
2	3	8/0
3	2	10/1
4	14	24/1
5	0	24/1
6	10	34/1
7	4	38/1
8	4	42/2
9	8	50/2
10	3	53/2
11	2	55/3
12	10	65/3
13	9	74/3
14	15	89/3
15	7	96/3
16	6	102/3
17	19	121/3
18	4	125/4
19	12	137/4
20	4	141/6

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