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Photo: Ranadipam Basu
Original photograph ↗ · CC BY-SA 3.0
Resized and converted to WebP; original framing preserved.
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Australia Women tour of Bangladesh · 2023/24 · Women
21 Mar 2024 · ODI
Shere Bangla National Stadium, Mirpur · Venue photographRecorded result
Australia more likely to win
Model tested on 501 past ODIs it never saw: its favourite won 63% of the time.
A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.
Worked out only from matches played before this one. The chances come from each side’s results rating in this format (an Elo rating that moves after every result), who is at home, recent form and past meetings. We tested it on matches from 2024 onwards that it had never seen. Upsets happen.
Australia started on 85%; Australia batted first.
Innings 1
| Batter | Dismissal | R | B | 4s | 6s | SR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 Alyssa Healycaught · Nigar Sultana · Marufa Akter3 fours · 0 sixes | caught · Nigar Sultana · b Marufa Akter | 24 | 39 | 3 | 0 | 61.54 |
 Phoebe Litchfieldbowled · Sultana Khatun0 fours · 0 sixes | bowled · b Sultana Khatun | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 |
 Ellyse Perrycaught · Rabeya Khan · Sultana Khatun0 fours · 0 sixes | caught · Rabeya Khan · b Sultana Khatun | 2 | 10 | 0 | 0 | 20.00 |
 Beth Mooneycaught · Nigar Sultana · Fahima Khatun1 fours · 0 sixes |
Australia's chances ranged from 66% to 100% during the match (Bangladesh: 0% to 34%).
Tested on every ball of 175 matches from 2024 it never saw: error score 0.129, against 0.189 for the pre-match chance alone (lower is better).
A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.
Before a ball is bowled the chance comes from the pre-match model. After each ball we compare the score with what usually follows from that many overs and wickets left at this ground (like a rain-rule resource table) and, in a chase, with the runs still needed. Early on the pre-match view counts most; late on the situation does.
| caught · Nigar Sultana · b Fahima Khatun |
| 25 |
| 64 |
| 1 |
| 0 |
| 39.06 |
 Tahlia McGrathlbw · Nahida Akter1 fours · 0 sixes | lbw · b Nahida Akter | 9 | 20 | 1 | 0 | 45.00 |
|---|
 Ashleigh Gardnerstumped · Nigar Sultana · Nahida Akter3 fours · 0 sixes | stumped · Nigar Sultana · b Nahida Akter | 32 | 38 | 3 | 0 | 84.21 |
|---|
 Annabel Sutherlandnot out5 fours · 0 sixes | not out | 58* | 76 | 5 | 0 | 76.32 |
|---|
 Georgia Warehamcaught · Rabeya Khan · Shorna Akter0 fours · 0 sixes | caught · Rabeya Khan · b Shorna Akter | 12 | 21 | 0 | 0 | 57.14 |
|---|
 Alana Kingnot out2 fours · 5 sixes | not out | 46* | 31 | 2 | 5 | 148.39 |
|---|
| Extras | byes: 2 · legbyes: 1 · wides: 2 · noballs: 0 · penalty: 0 | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bowler | Overs | M | R | W | Runs / 6 balls | WD | NB |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 Marufa Akter0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 7.0 | 0 | 22 | 1 | 3.14 | 0 | 0 |
| Sultana Khatun0 maidens · 1 wides · 0 no-balls | 10.0 | 0 | 42 | 2 | 4.20 | 1 | 0 |
 Nahida Akter1 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 10.0 | 1 | 27 | 2 | 2.70 | 0 | 0 |
| Rabeya Khan1 maidens · 1 wides · 0 no-balls | 10.0 | 1 | 33 | 0 | 3.30 | 1 | 0 |
 Fahima Khatun0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 9.0 | 0 | 67 | 1 | 7.44 | 0 | 0 |
| Shorna Akter0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 4.0 | 0 | 19 | 1 | 4.75 | 0 | 0 |
1-6 (Phoebe Litchfield, 1.1) · 2-21 (Ellyse Perry, 6.0) · 3-27 (Alyssa Healy, 8.4) · 4-48 (Tahlia McGrath, 18.2) · 5-78 (Beth Mooney, 25.1) · 6-112 (Ashleigh Gardner, 32.3) · 7-146 (Georgia Wareham, 40.4)
| Over / set | Runs | Score |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | 6 | 6/0 |
| 2 | 2 | 8/1 |
| 3 | 1 | 9/1 |
| 4 | 6 | 15/1 |
| 5 | 1 | 16/1 |
| 6 | 5 | 21/2 |
| 7 | 5 | 26/2 |
| 8 | 1 | 27/2 |
| 9 | 2 | 29/3 |
| 10 | 1 | 30/3 |
| 11 | 1 | 31/3 |
| 12 | 1 | 32/3 |
| 13 | 7 | 39/3 |
| 14 | 0 | 39/3 |
| 15 | 1 | 40/3 |
| 16 | 3 | 43/3 |
| 17 | 3 | 46/3 |
| 18 | 2 | 48/3 |
| 19 | 2 | 50/4 |
| 20 | 5 | 55/4 |
| 21 | 2 | 57/4 |
| 22 | 5 | 62/4 |
| 23 | 5 | 67/4 |
| 24 | 5 | 72/4 |
| 25 | 6 | 78/4 |
| 26 | 1 | 79/5 |
| 27 | 4 | 83/5 |
| 28 | 4 | 87/5 |
| 29 | 3 | 90/5 |
| 30 | 4 | 94/5 |
| 31 | 6 | 100/5 |
| 32 | 11 | 111/5 |
| 33 | 2 | 113/6 |
| 34 | 4 | 117/6 |
| 35 | 0 | 117/6 |
| 36 | 5 | 122/6 |
| 37 | 4 | 126/6 |
| 38 | 8 | 134/6 |
| 39 | 1 | 135/6 |
| 40 | 6 | 141/6 |
| 41 | 5 | 146/7 |
| 42 | 5 | 151/7 |
| 43 | 9 | 160/7 |
| 44 | 2 | 162/7 |
| 45 | 4 | 166/7 |
| 46 | 6 | 172/7 |
| 47 | 3 | 175/7 |
| 48 | 6 | 181/7 |
| 49 | 3 | 184/7 |
| 50 | 29 | 213/7 |
Georgia Wareham: Bahnfrend · CC BY-SA 4.0
Tahlia McGrath: Bahnfrend · CC BY-SA 4.0
Fahima Khatun: Nurunnaby Chowdhury (Hasive) · CC BY-SA 4.0
Nigar Sultana: Bahnfrend · CC BY-SA 4.0
Ellyse Perry: Department of Foreign Affairs and Trade · CC BY 4.0
Nahida Akter: Nurunnaby Chowdhury (Hasive) · CC BY-SA 4.0
Megan Schutt: Bahnfrend · CC BY-SA 4.0
Ashleigh Gardner: Bahnfrend · CC BY-SA 4.0
Marufa Akter: Press Information Department · Public domain
Beth Mooney: Bahnfrend · CC BY-SA 4.0
Alyssa Healy: YellowMonkey · CC BY-SA 3.0
Kim Garth: Bahnfrend · CC BY-SA 4.0
Murshida Khatun: Bahnfrend · CC BY-SA 4.0
Annabel Sutherland: Bahnfrend · CC BY-SA 4.0
Fargana Hoque: Digimarka · CC BY-SA 4.0
Alana King: Yu Chu Chin · CC BY-SA 4.0
Phoebe Litchfield: Bahnfrend · CC BY-SA 4.0
Statistics are calculated from imported deliveries. Super overs are separate; source corrections may change recorded figures.
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