West IndiesversusEngland

8 Jun 2025 · T20

County Ground, Bristol · Venue photograph

Recorded result

England won by 4 wickets

West Indies20.0 overs196/6 England18.3 overs199/6 County Ground, Bristol ↗

Win chances before this match

Before the toss

England more likely to win

19%West Indies81%England

Why

On results in T20 internationals so far, England rate stronger than West Indies (1,669 vs 1,514 on our results rating)
In the last 10 T20 internationals between these sides, England won 7 and West Indies won 3
England are playing at home in the United Kingdom

Model tested on 2,789 past T20 internationals it never saw: its favourite won 73% of the time.

A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.

How this works

Worked out only from matches played before this one. The chances come from each side’s results rating in this format (an Elo rating that moves after every result), who is at home, recent form and past meetings. We tested it on matches from 2024 onwards that it had never seen. Upsets happen.

How the win chances moved

Ball by ball

West Indies started on 17%; West Indies batted first.

West Indies’s chance of winning (%) · England is the rest

West Indies's chances ranged from 0% to 57% during the match (England: 43% to 100%).

Biggest swings

2nd inns 1.2: JO Holder to JL Smith, JL Smith out. West Indies up from 40% to 52%.
2nd inns 12.2: AJ Hosein to JC Buttler, JC Buttler out. West Indies up from 36% to 49%.
2nd inns 13.3: RL Chase to HC Brook, HC Brook out. West Indies up from 37% to 51%.

Tested on every ball of 1,498 matches from 2024 it never saw: error score 0.130, against 0.197 for the pre-match chance alone (lower is better).

A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.

How this works

Before a ball is bowled the chance comes from the pre-match model. After each ball we compare the score with what usually follows from that many overs and wickets left at this ground (like a rain-rule resource table) and, in a chase, with the runs still needed. Early on the pre-match view counts most; late on the situation does.

West Indies196/6 England199/6

Innings 1

West Indies

196/620.0 overs

Batting, bowling & fall of wickets

West Indies batting
Batter	Dismissal	R	B	4s	6s	SR
Evin Lewislbw · Luke Wood 0 fours · 0 sixes	lbw · b Luke Wood	0	1	0	0	0.00
Johnson Charlesbowled · Luke Wood 3 fours · 3 sixes	bowled · b Luke Wood	47	39	3	3	120.51
Shai Hopestumped · Jos Buttler · Adil Rashid 2 fours · 4 sixes	stumped · Jos Buttler · b Adil Rashid	49	38	2	4	128.95
Sherfane Rutherfordcaught · Tom Banton · Jacob Bethell 1 fours · 0 sixes	caught · Tom Banton · b Jacob Bethell	6	8	1	0	75.00
Rovman Powellcaught · Luke Wood · Brydon Carse 3 fours · 2 sixes	caught · Luke Wood · b Brydon Carse

Bowler	Overs	R	W	Runs / 6 balls	WD	NB
Luke Wood0 maidens · 0 wides · 1 no-balls	4.0	25	2	6.25	0	1
Liam Dawson0 maidens · 2 wides · 0 no-balls	4.0	43	0	10.75	2	0
Brydon Carse0 maidens · 1 wides · 1 no-balls	4.0	42	1	10.50	1	1
Jacob Bethell0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls	3.0	24	1	8.00	0	0
Adil Rashid0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls	4.0	59	1	14.75	0	0
Will Jacks0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls	1.0	2	0	2.00	0	0

Over / set	Runs	Score
1	3	3/1
2	8	11/1
3	1	12/1
4	16	28/1
5	12	40/1
6	15	55/1
7	4	59/1
8	7	66/1
9	13	79/1
10	3	82/1
11	9	91/2
12	2	93/2
13	7	100/3
14	12	112/3
15	4	116/3
16	5	121/4
17	20	141/4
18	8	149/5
19	31	180/5
20	16	196/6

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