Rajasthan RoyalsversusChennai Super Kings

30 Mar 2025 · T20

Barsapara Cricket Stadium, Guwahati · Venue photograph

Recorded result

Rajasthan Royals won by 6 runs

Rajasthan Royals20.0 overs182/9 Chennai Super Kings20.0 overs176/6 Barsapara Cricket Stadium, Guwahati ↗

How the win chances moved

Ball by ball

Rajasthan Royals started on 46%; Rajasthan Royals batted first.

Rajasthan Royals’s chance of winning (%) · Chennai Super Kings is the rest

Rajasthan Royals's chances ranged from 35% to 98% during the match (Chennai Super Kings: 2% to 65%).

Biggest swings

0.3: KK Ahmed to YBK Jaiswal, YBK Jaiswal out. Chennai Super Kings up from 50% to 65%.
2nd inns 11.5: PWH de Silva to V Shankar, V Shankar out. Rajasthan Royals up from 65% to 77%.
2nd inns 15.5: PWH de Silva to RD Gaikwad, RD Gaikwad out. Rajasthan Royals up from 67% to 81%.

Tested on every ball of 1,336 matches from 2024 it never saw: error score 0.175, against 0.247 for the pre-match chance alone (lower is better).

A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.

How this works

Before a ball is bowled the chance comes from the pre-match model. After each ball we compare the score with what usually follows from that many overs and wickets left at this ground (like a rain-rule resource table) and, in a chase, with the runs still needed. Early on the pre-match view counts most; late on the situation does.

Rajasthan Royals182/9 Chennai Super Kings176/6

Innings 1