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India tour of Australia · 2024/25 · Men
14 Dec 2024 · Test
Brisbane Cricket Ground · Venue photographAustralia more likely to win
Model tested on 119 past Tests it never saw: its favourite won 63% of the time.
A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.
Worked out only from matches played before this one. The chances come from each side’s results rating in this format (an Elo rating that moves after every result), who is at home, recent form and past meetings, plus how often Tests at this ground end in a draw. We tested it on matches from 2024 onwards that it had never seen. Upsets happen.
Innings 1
| Batter | Dismissal | R | B | 4s | 6s | SR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 Usman Khawajacaught · Rishabh Pant · Jasprit Bumrah3 fours · 0 sixes | caught · Rishabh Pant · b Jasprit Bumrah | 21 | 54 | 3 | 0 | 38.89 |
| Nathan McSweeneycaught · Virat Kohli · Jasprit Bumrah 1 fours · 0 sixes | caught · Virat Kohli · b Jasprit Bumrah | 9 | 49 | 1 | 0 | 18.37 |
 Marnus Labuschagnecaught · Virat Kohli · Nitish Kumar Reddy0 fours · 0 sixes | caught · Virat Kohli · b Nitish Kumar Reddy | 12 | 55 | 0 | 0 | 21.82 |
 |
| caught · Rohit Sharma · b Jasprit Bumrah |
| 101 |
| 190 |
| 12 |
| 0 |
| 53.16 |
 Travis Headcaught · Rishabh Pant · Jasprit Bumrah18 fours · 0 sixes | caught · Rishabh Pant · b Jasprit Bumrah | 152 | 160 | 18 | 0 | 95.00 |
|---|
 Mitchell Marshcaught · Virat Kohli · Jasprit Bumrah0 fours · 0 sixes | caught · Virat Kohli · b Jasprit Bumrah | 5 | 16 | 0 | 0 | 31.25 |
|---|
 Alex Careycaught · Shubman Gill · Akash Deep7 fours · 2 sixes | caught · Shubman Gill · b Akash Deep | 70 | 88 | 7 | 2 | 79.55 |
|---|
 Pat Cumminscaught · Rishabh Pant · Mohammed Siraj1 fours · 0 sixes | caught · Rishabh Pant · b Mohammed Siraj | 20 | 33 | 1 | 0 | 60.61 |
|---|
 Mitchell Starccaught · Rishabh Pant · Jasprit Bumrah1 fours · 1 sixes | caught · Rishabh Pant · b Jasprit Bumrah | 18 | 30 | 1 | 1 | 60.00 |
|---|
 Nathan Lyonbowled · Mohammed Siraj0 fours · 0 sixes | bowled · b Mohammed Siraj | 2 | 30 | 0 | 0 | 6.67 |
|---|
 Josh Hazlewoodnot out0 fours · 0 sixes | not out | 0* | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 |
|---|
| Extras | byes: 0 · legbyes: 17 · wides: 13 · noballs: 5 · penalty: 0 | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bowler | Overs | M | R | W | Runs / 6 balls | WD | NB |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 Jasprit Bumrah9 maidens · 0 wides · 2 no-balls | 28.0 | 9 | 76 | 6 | 2.71 | 0 | 2 |
 Mohammed Siraj5 maidens · 10 wides · 0 no-balls | 23.2 | 5 | 97 | 2 | 4.16 | 10 | 0 |
| Akash Deep5 maidens · 2 wides · 2 no-balls | 29.5 | 5 | 95 | 1 | 3.18 | 2 | 2 |
 Nitish Kumar Reddy1 maidens · 1 wides · 0 no-balls | 13.0 | 1 | 65 | 1 | 5.00 | 1 | 0 |
 Ravindra Jadeja2 maidens · 0 wides · 1 no-balls | 23.0 | 2 | 95 | 0 | 4.13 | 0 | 1 |
1-31 (Usman Khawaja, 16.1) · 2-38 (Nathan McSweeney, 18.3) · 3-75 (Marnus Labuschagne, 33.2) · 4-316 (Steve Smith, 83.0) · 5-326 (Mitchell Marsh, 86.2) · 6-327 (Travis Head, 86.5) · 7-385 (Pat Cummins, 97.5) · 8-423 (Mitchell Starc, 106.0) · 9-445 (Nathan Lyon, 116.3) · 10-445 (Alex Carey, 117.1)
| Over / set | Runs | Score |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | 4 | 4/0 |
| 2 | 0 | 4/0 |
| 3 | 2 | 6/0 |
| 4 | 8 | 14/0 |
| 5 | 4 | 18/0 |
| 6 | 5 | 23/0 |
| 7 | 1 | 24/0 |
| 8 | 0 | 24/0 |
| 9 | 0 | 24/0 |
| 10 | 2 | 26/0 |
| 11 | 2 | 28/0 |
| 12 | 0 | 28/0 |
| 13 | 0 | 28/0 |
| 14 | 1 | 29/0 |
| 15 | 2 | 31/0 |
| 16 | 0 | 31/0 |
| 17 | 0 | 31/1 |
| 18 | 7 | 38/1 |
| 19 | 1 | 39/2 |
| 20 | 3 | 42/2 |
| 21 | 2 | 44/2 |
| 22 | 7 | 51/2 |
| 23 | 0 | 51/2 |
| 24 | 2 | 53/2 |
| 25 | 0 | 53/2 |
| 26 | 2 | 55/2 |
| 27 | 7 | 62/2 |
| 28 | 0 | 62/2 |
| 29 | 0 | 62/2 |
| 30 | 3 | 65/2 |
| 31 | 2 | 67/2 |
| 32 | 2 | 69/2 |
| 33 | 3 | 72/2 |
| 34 | 3 | 75/3 |
| 35 | 2 | 77/3 |
| 36 | 6 | 83/3 |
| 37 | 2 | 85/3 |
| 38 | 9 | 94/3 |
| 39 | 1 | 95/3 |
| 40 | 3 | 98/3 |
| 41 | 0 | 98/3 |
| 42 | 2 | 100/3 |
| 43 | 4 | 104/3 |
| 44 | 6 | 110/3 |
| 45 | 3 | 113/3 |
| 46 | 2 | 115/3 |
| 47 | 1 | 116/3 |
| 48 | 5 | 121/3 |
| 49 | 6 | 127/3 |
| 50 | 4 | 131/3 |
| 51 | 1 | 132/3 |
| 52 | 5 | 137/3 |
| 53 | 2 | 139/3 |
| 54 | 5 | 144/3 |
| 55 | 9 | 153/3 |
| 56 | 5 | 158/3 |
| 57 | 0 | 158/3 |
| 58 | 4 | 162/3 |
| 59 | 1 | 163/3 |
| 60 | 7 | 170/3 |
| 61 | 3 | 173/3 |
| 62 | 11 | 184/3 |
| 63 | 7 | 191/3 |
| 64 | 5 | 196/3 |
| 65 | 9 | 205/3 |
| 66 | 9 | 214/3 |
| 67 | 8 | 222/3 |
| 68 | 5 | 227/3 |
| 69 | 4 | 231/3 |
| 70 | 3 | 234/3 |
| 71 | 3 | 237/3 |
| 72 | 14 | 251/3 |
| 73 | 10 | 261/3 |
| 74 | 8 | 269/3 |
| 75 | 7 | 276/3 |
| 76 | 1 | 277/3 |
| 77 | 5 | 282/3 |
| 78 | 8 | 290/3 |
| 79 | 5 | 295/3 |
| 80 | 2 | 297/3 |
| 81 | 5 | 302/3 |
| 82 | 11 | 313/3 |
| 83 | 3 | 316/4 |
| 84 | 2 | 318/4 |
| 85 | 0 | 318/4 |
| 86 | 7 | 325/4 |
| 87 | 2 | 327/6 |
| 88 | 3 | 330/6 |
| 89 | 10 | 340/6 |
| 90 | 7 | 347/6 |
| 91 | 1 | 348/6 |
| 92 | 3 | 351/6 |
| 93 | 5 | 356/6 |
| 94 | 4 | 360/6 |
| 95 | 5 | 365/6 |
| 96 | 12 | 377/6 |
| 97 | 1 | 378/6 |
| 98 | 9 | 387/7 |
| 99 | 10 | 397/7 |
| 100 | 4 | 401/7 |
| 101 | 4 | 405/7 |
| 102 | 0 | 405/7 |
| 103 | 6 | 411/7 |
| 104 | 0 | 411/7 |
| 105 | 8 | 419/7 |
| 106 | 4 | 423/8 |
| 107 | 1 | 424/8 |
| 108 | 7 | 431/8 |
| 109 | 1 | 432/8 |
| 110 | 1 | 433/8 |
| 111 | 1 | 434/8 |
| 112 | 1 | 435/8 |
| 113 | 1 | 436/8 |
| 114 | 4 | 440/8 |
| 115 | 1 | 441/8 |
| 116 | 4 | 445/8 |
| 117 | 0 | 445/9 |
| 118 | 0 | 445/10 |
Josh Hazlewood: EGilham · CC BY-SA 4.0
Mitchell Marsh: www.davidmolloyphotography.com · CC BY 2.0
Jasprit Bumrah: CRICKETNEXT · CC BY 3.0
Yashasvi Jaiswal: Prime Minister's Office · GODL-India
Marnus Labuschagne: Ben Sutherland from Crystal Palace, London, UK · CC BY 2.0
Nitish Kumar Reddy: WikiWanderer261 · CC0
Usman Khawaja: NAPARAZZI · CC BY-SA 2.0
Nathan Lyon: EGilham · CC BY-SA 4.0
Rishabh Pant: Ben Sutherland from Crystal Palace, London, UK · CC BY 2.0
Travis Head: Calistemon · CC BY-SA 4.0
Mohammed Siraj: Prime Minister's Office · GODL-India
Steve Smith: NAPARAZZI · CC BY-SA 2.0
Pat Cummins: SirWellsy99 · CC BY-SA 4.0
KL Rahul: NAPARAZZI · CC BY-SA 2.0
Alex Carey: Calistemon · CC BY-SA 4.0
Rohit Sharma: Bahnfrend · CC BY-SA 4.0
Mitchell Starc: Dave Morton · Public domain
Ravindra Jadeja: SR Vlogs · CC BY 3.0
Shubman Gill: Bollywood Hungama · CC BY 3.0
Virat Kohli: Prime Minister's Office · GODL-India
Statistics are calculated from imported deliveries. Super overs are separate; source corrections may change recorded figures.
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