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ICC Men's Cricket World Cup League 2 · 2026 · Men
12 Apr 2026 · ODI
Recorded result
Scotland more likely to win
Model tested on 501 past ODIs it never saw: its favourite won 63% of the time.
A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.
Worked out only from matches played before this one. The chances come from each side’s results rating in this format (an Elo rating that moves after every result), who is at home, recent form and past meetings. We tested it on matches from 2024 onwards that it had never seen. Upsets happen.
Namibia started on 36%; Namibia batted first.
Innings 1
| Batter | Dismissal | R | B | 4s | 6s | SR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| WP Myburghcaught · Matty Cross · Jack Jarvis 0 fours · 0 sixes | caught · Matty Cross · b Jack Jarvis | 1 | 6 | 0 | 0 | 16.67 |
 Malan Krugercaught · Jasper John Davidson · Brandon McMullen4 fours · 0 sixes | caught · Jasper John Davidson · b Brandon McMullen | 16 | 13 | 4 | 0 | 123.08 |
| Jan Frylinckcaught · Brandon McMullen · Mark Watt 1 fours · 0 sixes | caught · Brandon McMullen · b Mark Watt | 22 | 40 | 1 | 0 | 55.00 |
| Gerhard Erasmuscaught · Richie Berrington · Brandon McMullen 0 fours · 0 sixes | caught · Richie Berrington · b Brandon McMullen | 2 | 10 | 0 | 0 | 20.00 |
| Louren Steenkampcaught · Matty Cross · Jasper John Davidson4 fours · 1 sixes |
Namibia's chances ranged from 0% to 38% during the match (Scotland: 62% to 100%).
Tested on every ball of 247 matches from 2024 it never saw: error score 0.171, against 0.234 for the pre-match chance alone (lower is better).
A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.
Before a ball is bowled the chance comes from the pre-match model. After each ball we compare the score with what usually follows from that many overs and wickets left at this ground (like a rain-rule resource table) and, in a chase, with the runs still needed. Early on the pre-match view counts most; late on the situation does.
| caught · Matty Cross · b Jasper John Davidson |
| 67 |
| 99 |
| 4 |
| 1 |
| 67.68 |
| Zane Greencaught · Christopher McBride · Mark Watt 1 fours · 0 sixes | caught · Christopher McBride · b Mark Watt | 12 | 32 | 1 | 0 | 37.50 |
|---|
| JJ Smitcaught · Michael Leask · Brandon McMullen 3 fours · 2 sixes | caught · Michael Leask · b Brandon McMullen | 43 | 68 | 3 | 2 | 63.24 |
|---|
| Ruben Trumpelmannbowled · Oliver Davidson 0 fours · 1 sixes | bowled · b Oliver Davidson | 10 | 9 | 0 | 1 | 111.11 |
|---|
| Bernard Scholtznot out 0 fours · 0 sixes | not out | 7* | 10 | 0 | 0 | 70.00 |
|---|
| Jack Brassellcaught and bowled · Jack Jarvis 0 fours · 0 sixes | caught and bowled · b Jack Jarvis | 3 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 75.00 |
|---|
| M Heingobowled · Oliver Davidson 0 fours · 0 sixes | bowled · b Oliver Davidson | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 |
|---|
| Extras | byes: 0 · legbyes: 2 · wides: 13 · noballs: 0 · penalty: 0 | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bowler | Overs | M | R | W | Runs / 6 balls | WD | NB |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brandon McMullen0 maidens · 4 wides · 0 no-balls | 8.0 | 0 | 47 | 3 | 5.88 | 4 | 0 |
| Jack Jarvis0 maidens · 6 wides · 0 no-balls | 9.0 | 0 | 29 | 2 | 3.22 | 6 | 0 |
| Jasper John Davidson0 maidens · 1 wides · 0 no-balls | 9.0 | 0 | 47 | 1 | 5.22 | 1 | 0 |
 Mark Watt0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 10.0 | 0 | 21 | 2 | 2.10 | 0 | 0 |
| Oliver Davidson0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 6.0 | 0 | 28 | 2 | 4.67 | 0 | 0 |
| Christopher McBride0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 5.0 | 0 | 16 | 0 | 3.20 | 0 | 0 |
| Michael Leask0 maidens · 2 wides · 0 no-balls | 2.0 | 0 | 8 | 0 | 4.00 | 2 | 0 |
1-1 (WP Myburgh, 1.1) · 2-23 (Malan Kruger, 5.0) · 3-37 (Gerhard Erasmus, 8.4) · 4-65 (Jan Frylinck, 14.4) · 5-89 (Zane Green, 22.4) · 6-176 (JJ Smit, 44.0) · 7-177 (Louren Steenkamp, 45.2) · 8-189 (Ruben Trumpelmann, 46.4) · 9-197 (Jack Brassell, 48.0) · 10-198 (M Heingo, 49.0)
| Over / set | Runs | Score |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | 1 | 1/0 |
| 2 | 4 | 5/1 |
| 3 | 8 | 13/1 |
| 4 | 2 | 15/1 |
| 5 | 8 | 23/2 |
| 6 | 5 | 28/2 |
| 7 | 5 | 33/2 |
| 8 | 1 | 34/2 |
| 9 | 3 | 37/3 |
| 10 | 1 | 38/3 |
| 11 | 5 | 43/3 |
| 12 | 6 | 49/3 |
| 13 | 4 | 53/3 |
| 14 | 11 | 64/3 |
| 15 | 1 | 65/4 |
| 16 | 4 | 69/4 |
| 17 | 3 | 72/4 |
| 18 | 4 | 76/4 |
| 19 | 1 | 77/4 |
| 20 | 6 | 83/4 |
| 21 | 2 | 85/4 |
| 22 | 2 | 87/4 |
| 23 | 2 | 89/5 |
| 24 | 3 | 92/5 |
| 25 | 1 | 93/5 |
| 26 | 2 | 95/5 |
| 27 | 4 | 99/5 |
| 28 | 3 | 102/5 |
| 29 | 2 | 104/5 |
| 30 | 2 | 106/5 |
| 31 | 5 | 111/5 |
| 32 | 1 | 112/5 |
| 33 | 6 | 118/5 |
| 34 | 4 | 122/5 |
| 35 | 5 | 127/5 |
| 36 | 7 | 134/5 |
| 37 | 3 | 137/5 |
| 38 | 7 | 144/5 |
| 39 | 2 | 146/5 |
| 40 | 5 | 151/5 |
| 41 | 4 | 155/5 |
| 42 | 4 | 159/5 |
| 43 | 4 | 163/5 |
| 44 | 13 | 176/6 |
| 45 | 1 | 177/6 |
| 46 | 4 | 181/7 |
| 47 | 10 | 191/8 |
| 48 | 6 | 197/9 |
| 49 | 1 | 198/10 |
Mark Watt: Dave Morton · Public domain
Malan Kruger: Amuzujoe · CC BY-SA 4.0
Statistics are calculated from imported deliveries. Super overs are separate; source corrections may change recorded figures.
