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ICC World Twenty20 Americas Sub Regional Qualifier A · 2026 · Men
27 Jun 2026 · T20
Recorded result
Bahamas more likely to win
Model tested on 2,789 past T20 internationals it never saw: its favourite won 73% of the time.
A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.
Worked out only from matches played before this one. The chances come from each side’s results rating in this format (an Elo rating that moves after every result), who is at home, recent form and past meetings. We tested it on matches from 2024 onwards that it had never seen. Upsets happen.
Bahamas started on 50%; Bahamas batted first.
Bahamas's chances ranged from 37% to 100% during the match (Belize: 0% to 63%).
Tested on every ball of 1,498 matches from 2024 it never saw: error score 0.130, against 0.197 for the pre-match chance alone (lower is better).
A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.
Before a ball is bowled the chance comes from the pre-match model. After each ball we compare the score with what usually follows from that many overs and wickets left at this ground (like a rain-rule resource table) and, in a chase, with the runs still needed. Early on the pre-match view counts most; late on the situation does.
Innings 1
| Batter | Dismissal | R | B | 4s | 6s | SR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Marc Taylorcaught · AA Banner · L Bonner 5 fours · 1 sixes | caught · AA Banner · b L Bonner | 51 | 52 | 5 | 1 | 98.08 |
| Gregory Taylorbowled · ML Castillo 0 fours · 0 sixes | bowled · b ML Castillo | 1 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 33.33 |
| R Davsoncaught · ML Castillo · L Bonner 2 fours · 1 sixes | caught · ML Castillo · b L Bonner | 19 | 19 | 2 | 1 | 100.00 |
| J Jemisonlbw · AA Banner 3 fours · 1 sixes | lbw · b AA Banner | 27 | 14 | 3 | 1 | 192.86 |
| T Browncaught · T Moses · ML Castillo 0 fours · 1 sixes | caught · T Moses · b ML Castillo | 21 | 25 | 0 | 1 | 84.00 |
| A Amburosecaught · L Mcfadzean · ML Castillo0 fours · 0 sixes |
| caught · L Mcfadzean · b ML Castillo |
| 0 |
| 2 |
| 0 |
| 0 |
| 0.00 |
| Festus Bennnot out 0 fours · 0 sixes | not out | 0* | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 |
|---|
| K Burrowsnot out 0 fours · 1 sixes | not out | 8* | 3 | 0 | 1 | 266.67 |
|---|
| Extras | byes: 0 · legbyes: 3 · wides: 13 · noballs: 0 · penalty: 0 | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bowler | Overs | M | R | W | Runs / 6 balls | WD | NB |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| NN Banner0 maidens · 6 wides · 0 no-balls | 4.0 | 0 | 24 | 0 | 6.00 | 6 | 0 |
| ML Castillo1 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 4.0 | 1 | 13 | 3 | 3.25 | 0 | 0 |
| O Casasola0 maidens · 1 wides · 0 no-balls | 2.0 | 0 | 17 | 0 | 8.50 | 1 | 0 |
| T Moses0 maidens · 2 wides · 0 no-balls | 3.0 | 0 | 25 | 0 | 8.33 | 2 | 0 |
| L Bonner0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 4.0 | 0 | 28 | 2 | 7.00 | 0 | 0 |
| AA Banner0 maidens · 4 wides · 0 no-balls | 3.0 | 0 | 33 | 1 | 11.00 | 4 | 0 |
1-2 (Gregory Taylor, 1.1) · 2-36 (R Davson, 6.1) · 3-69 (J Jemison, 9.5) · 4-131 (T Brown, 18.2) · 5-131 (A Amburose, 18.4) · 6-135 (Marc Taylor, 19.3)
| Over / set | Runs | Score |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | 2 | 2/0 |
| 2 | 1 | 3/1 |
| 3 | 7 | 10/1 |
| 4 | 6 | 16/1 |
| 5 | 10 | 26/1 |
| 6 | 10 | 36/1 |
| 7 | 7 | 43/2 |
| 8 | 11 | 54/2 |
| 9 | 5 | 59/2 |
| 10 | 11 | 70/3 |
| 11 | 5 | 75/3 |
| 12 | 7 | 82/3 |
| 13 | 6 | 88/3 |
| 14 | 10 | 98/3 |
| 15 | 7 | 105/3 |
| 16 | 6 | 111/3 |
| 17 | 4 | 115/3 |
| 18 | 16 | 131/3 |
| 19 | 0 | 131/5 |
| 20 | 12 | 143/6 |
Statistics are calculated from imported deliveries. Super overs are separate; source corrections may change recorded figures.