IndiaversusPakistan

3 Oct 2026 · T20

Recorded result

India won by 19 runs

India20.0 overs211/6 Pakistan20.0 overs192/6 Korogi Sports Park ↗

Win chances before this match

Before the toss

India more likely to win

73%India27%Pakistan

Why

On results in T20 internationals so far, India rate stronger than Pakistan (1,787 vs 1,694 on our results rating)
In the last 10 T20 internationals between these sides, India won 8 and Pakistan won 2

Model tested on 2,789 past T20 internationals it never saw: its favourite won 73% of the time.

A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.

How this works

Worked out only from matches played before this one. The chances come from each side’s results rating in this format (an Elo rating that moves after every result), who is at home, recent form and past meetings. We tested it on matches from 2024 onwards that it had never seen. Upsets happen.

How the win chances moved

Ball by ball

India started on 73%; India batted first.

India’s chance of winning (%) · Pakistan is the rest

India's chances ranged from 73% to 100% during the match (Pakistan: 0% to 27%).

Biggest swings

1.2: Saad Masood to V Suryavanshi, six by V Suryavanshi. India up from 73% to 77%.
2.1: Saim Ayub to V Suryavanshi, V Suryavanshi out. Pakistan up from 14% to 20%.
3.5: Ahmed Daniyal to SV Samson, SV Samson out. Pakistan up from 11% to 16%.

Tested on every ball of 1,498 matches from 2024 it never saw: error score 0.130, against 0.197 for the pre-match chance alone (lower is better).

A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.

How this works

Before a ball is bowled the chance comes from the pre-match model. After each ball we compare the score with what usually follows from that many overs and wickets left at this ground (like a rain-rule resource table) and, in a chase, with the runs still needed. Early on the pre-match view counts most; late on the situation does.

India211/6 Pakistan192/6

Innings 1

India

211/620.0 overs

Batting, bowling & fall of wickets

India batting
Batter	Dismissal	R	B	4s	6s	SR
Vaibhav Suryavanshicaught · Usman Khan · Saim Ayub 0 fours · 2 sixes	caught · Usman Khan · b Saim Ayub	15	9	0	2	166.67
Abhishek Sharmastumped · Usman Khan · Arafat Minhas 3 fours · 7 sixes	stumped · Usman Khan · b Arafat Minhas	61	28	3	7	217.86
Sanju Samsoncaught · Arafat Minhas · Ahmed Daniyal 0 fours · 0 sixes	caught · Arafat Minhas · b Ahmed Daniyal	2	4	0	0	50.00
Shreyas Iyercaught · Sahibzada Farhan · Abrar Ahmed 2 fours · 0 sixes	caught · Sahibzada Farhan · b Abrar Ahmed	21	24	2	0	87.50

Bowler	Overs	R	W	Runs / 6 balls	WD	NB
Saim Ayub0 maidens · 1 wides · 0 no-balls	4.0	47	1	11.75	1	0
Saad Masood0 maidens · 0 wides · 1 no-balls	3.0	33	0	11.00	0	1
Ahmed Daniyal0 maidens · 7 wides · 0 no-balls	3.0	43	2	14.33	7	0
Arafat Minhas0 maidens · 1 wides · 0 no-balls	3.0	25	2	8.33	1	0
Abrar Ahmed0 maidens · 1 wides · 0 no-balls	4.0	29	1	7.25	1	0
Sufyan Moqeem0 maidens · 1 wides · 0 no-balls	3.0	33	0	11.00	1	0

Over / set	Runs	Score
1	4	4/0
2	24	28/0
3	15	43/1
4	9	52/2
5	11	63/2
6	18	81/2
7	4	85/2
8	9	94/3
9	9	103/3
10	11	114/3
11	6	120/3
12	4	124/3
13	4	128/3
14	5	133/4
15	4	137/5
16	5	142/5
17	12	154/5
18	18	172/5
19	23	195/5
20	16	211/6

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