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ICC Women's World Cup Qualifier · 2025 · Women
15 Apr 2025 · ODI
Recorded result
Thailand more likely to win
Model tested on 501 past ODIs it never saw: its favourite won 63% of the time.
A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.
Worked out only from matches played before this one. The chances come from each side’s results rating in this format (an Elo rating that moves after every result), who is at home, recent form and past meetings. We tested it on matches from 2024 onwards that it had never seen. Upsets happen.
Ireland started on 29%; Ireland batted first.
Innings 1
| Batter | Dismissal | R | B | 4s | 6s | SR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sarah Forbesbowled · Suleeporn Laomi 3 fours · 0 sixes | bowled · b Suleeporn Laomi | 29 | 35 | 3 | 0 | 82.86 |
| Gaby Lewiscaught · S Khiaoto · T Putthawong 14 fours · 0 sixes | caught · S Khiaoto · b T Putthawong | 75 | 89 | 14 | 0 | 84.27 |
| Amy Hunterbowled · Chanida Sutthiruang 10 fours · 0 sixes | bowled · b Chanida Sutthiruang | 76 | 71 | 10 | 0 | 107.04 |
| Orla Prendergastrun out · Nannapat Koncharoenkai, T Putthawong · Nattaya Boochatham 3 fours · 0 sixes | run out · Nannapat Koncharoenkai, T Putthawong | 21 | 34 | 3 | 0 | 61.76 |
| Laura Delanynot out 0 fours · 0 sixes | not out | 23* | 33 | 0 | 0 | 69.70 |
Ireland's chances ranged from 28% to 100% during the match (Thailand: 0% to 72%).
Tested on every ball of 175 matches from 2024 it never saw: error score 0.129, against 0.189 for the pre-match chance alone (lower is better).
A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.
Before a ball is bowled the chance comes from the pre-match model. After each ball we compare the score with what usually follows from that many overs and wickets left at this ground (like a rain-rule resource table) and, in a chase, with the runs still needed. Early on the pre-match view counts most; late on the situation does.
| not out |
| 67* |
| 40 |
| 10 |
| 1 |
| 167.50 |
| Extras | byes: 4 · legbyes: 2 · wides: 6 · noballs: 2 · penalty: 0 | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bowler | Overs | M | R | W | Runs / 6 balls | WD | NB |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Phannita Maya0 maidens · 0 wides · 2 no-balls | 5.0 | 0 | 31 | 0 | 6.20 | 0 | 2 |
 Nattaya Boochatham0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 9.0 | 0 | 43 | 0 | 4.78 | 0 | 0 |
| T Putthawong0 maidens · 1 wides · 0 no-balls | 10.0 | 0 | 65 | 1 | 6.50 | 1 | 0 |
 Onnicha Kamchomphu0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 3.0 | 0 | 28 | 0 | 9.33 | 0 | 0 |
 Chanida Sutthiruang0 maidens · 4 wides · 0 no-balls | 10.0 | 0 | 43 | 1 | 4.30 | 4 | 0 |
 Suleeporn Laomi0 maidens · 1 wides · 0 no-balls | 7.0 | 0 | 47 | 1 | 6.71 | 1 | 0 |
| S Chaturongrattana0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 6.0 | 0 | 42 | 0 | 7.00 | 0 | 0 |
1-88 (Sarah Forbes, 16.0) · 2-144 (Gaby Lewis, 25.5) · 3-187 (Orla Prendergast, 35.0) · 4-218 (Amy Hunter, 39.4)
| Over / set | Runs | Score |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | 6 | 6/0 |
| 2 | 1 | 7/0 |
| 3 | 5 | 12/0 |
| 4 | 2 | 14/0 |
| 5 | 4 | 18/0 |
| 6 | 6 | 24/0 |
| 7 | 5 | 29/0 |
| 8 | 1 | 30/0 |
| 9 | 10 | 40/0 |
| 10 | 4 | 44/0 |
| 11 | 8 | 52/0 |
| 12 | 2 | 54/0 |
| 13 | 7 | 61/0 |
| 14 | 6 | 67/0 |
| 15 | 13 | 80/0 |
| 16 | 8 | 88/1 |
| 17 | 6 | 94/1 |
| 18 | 3 | 97/1 |
| 19 | 9 | 106/1 |
| 20 | 4 | 110/1 |
| 21 | 9 | 119/1 |
| 22 | 5 | 124/1 |
| 23 | 7 | 131/1 |
| 24 | 9 | 140/1 |
| 25 | 3 | 143/1 |
| 26 | 1 | 144/2 |
| 27 | 5 | 149/2 |
| 28 | 2 | 151/2 |
| 29 | 4 | 155/2 |
| 30 | 6 | 161/2 |
| 31 | 1 | 162/2 |
| 32 | 6 | 168/2 |
| 33 | 9 | 177/2 |
| 34 | 5 | 182/2 |
| 35 | 5 | 187/3 |
| 36 | 7 | 194/3 |
| 37 | 9 | 203/3 |
| 38 | 11 | 214/3 |
| 39 | 4 | 218/3 |
| 40 | 1 | 219/4 |
| 41 | 2 | 221/4 |
| 42 | 3 | 224/4 |
| 43 | 12 | 236/4 |
| 44 | 7 | 243/4 |
| 45 | 9 | 252/4 |
| 46 | 8 | 260/4 |
| 47 | 10 | 270/4 |
| 48 | 8 | 278/4 |
| 49 | 13 | 291/4 |
| 50 | 14 | 305/4 |
Naruemol Chaiwai: Bahnfrend · CC BY-SA 4.0
Nannapat Koncharoenkai: Bahnfrend · CC BY-SA 4.0
Nattaya Boochatham: Bahnfrend · CC BY-SA 4.0
Chanida Sutthiruang: Bahnfrend · CC BY-SA 4.0
Onnicha Kamchomphu: Bahnfrend · CC BY-SA 4.0
Natthakan Chantam: Bahnfrend · CC BY-SA 4.0
Suleeporn Laomi: Bahnfrend · CC BY-SA 4.0
Statistics are calculated from imported deliveries. Super overs are separate; source corrections may change recorded figures.
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