PhilippinesversusSouth Korea

16 May 2026 · T20

Recorded result

South Korea won by 8 wickets

Philippines20.0 overs94/8 South Korea13.2 overs95/2 Sano International Cricket Ground 2 ↗

Win chances before this match

Before the toss

Philippines more likely to win

81%Philippines19%South Korea

Why

On results in T20 internationals so far, Philippines rate stronger than South Korea (1,464 vs 1,312 on our results rating)
In the last 9 T20 internationals between these sides, Philippines won 8 and South Korea won 1

Model tested on 2,789 past T20 internationals it never saw: its favourite won 73% of the time.

A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.

How this works

Worked out only from matches played before this one. The chances come from each side’s results rating in this format (an Elo rating that moves after every result), who is at home, recent form and past meetings. We tested it on matches from 2024 onwards that it had never seen. Upsets happen.

How the win chances moved

Ball by ball

Philippines started on 80%; Philippines batted first.

Philippines’s chance of winning (%) · South Korea is the rest

Philippines's chances ranged from 0% to 85% during the match (South Korea: 15% to 100%).

Biggest swings

4.2: Sageer Ahmad to AS Samra, AS Samra out. South Korea up from 31% to 40%.
11.4: Kuldeep Gurjar to JEA Doctora, JEA Doctora out. South Korea up from 50% to 60%.
19.6: DVD Madampage to Surinder Singh, 0 runs to Surinder Singh. South Korea up from 63% to 74%.

Tested on every ball of 1,498 matches from 2024 it never saw: error score 0.130, against 0.197 for the pre-match chance alone (lower is better).

A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.

How this works

Before a ball is bowled the chance comes from the pre-match model. After each ball we compare the score with what usually follows from that many overs and wickets left at this ground (like a rain-rule resource table) and, in a chase, with the runs still needed. Early on the pre-match view counts most; late on the situation does.

Philippines94/8 South Korea95/2

Innings 1

Philippines

94/820.0 overs

Batting, bowling & fall of wickets

Philippines batting
Batter	Dismissal	R	B	4s	6s	SR
AS Samracaught · Sameera Maduranga · Sageer Ahmad 1 fours · 0 sixes	caught · Sameera Maduranga · b Sageer Ahmad	8	9	1	0	88.89
Daniel Smithbowled · Chamith Ranasinghe 1 fours · 0 sixes	bowled · b Chamith Ranasinghe	5	7	1	0	71.43
N Tannerbowled · Sageer Ahmad 1 fours · 0 sixes	bowled · b Sageer Ahmad	4	5	1	0	80.00
A Donovancaught · Sameera Pitabeddara · Muhammad Nadeem 0 fours · 0 sixes	caught · Sameera Pitabeddara · b Muhammad Nadeem	6	22	0	0	27.27
Henry Tylernot out 6 fours · 0 sixes	not out	46*	47	6	0	97.87

Bowler	Overs	R	W	Runs / 6 balls	WD
Sageer Ahmad0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls	4.0	15	2	3.75	0
Chamith Ranasinghe0 maidens · 1 wides · 0 no-balls	2.0	11	1	5.50	1
Daham Madampage0 maidens · 1 wides · 0 no-balls	4.0	13	1	3.25	1
Sameera Maduranga0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls	3.0	19	1	6.33	0
Kuldeep Gurjar0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls	4.0	9	2	2.25	0
Muhammad Nadeem0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls	2.0	10	1	5.00	0
HMHE Parsons0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls	1.0	12	0	12.00	0

Over / set	Runs	Score
1	3	3/0
2	10	13/1
3	5	18/2
4	1	19/2
5	1	20/3
6	1	21/3
7	7	28/3
8	4	32/3
9	8	40/3
10	1	41/3
11	4	45/4
12	2	47/5
13	6	53/5
14	3	56/6
15	14	70/6
16	3	73/6
17	4	77/7
18	5	82/8
19	8	90/8
20	4	94/8

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