Northern DiamondsversusWestern Storm

16 Jun 2024 · T20

Headingley · Venue photograph

Recorded result

Northern Diamonds won by 28 runs

Northern Diamonds20.0 overs146/3 Western Storm20.0 overs118/7 Headingley ↗

How the win chances moved

Ball by ball

Northern Diamonds started on 52%; Northern Diamonds batted first.

Northern Diamonds’s chance of winning (%) · Western Storm is the rest

Northern Diamonds's chances ranged from 53% to 100% during the match (Western Storm: 0% to 47%).

Biggest swings

2nd inns 0.1: R Slater to DR Gibson, DR Gibson out. Northern Diamonds up from 57% to 70%.
2nd inns 0.6: R Slater to NAJ Wraith, NAJ Wraith out. Northern Diamonds up from 69% to 79%.
2nd inns 8.3: S Turner to E Corney, E Corney out. Northern Diamonds up from 62% to 74%.

Tested on every ball of 360 matches from 2024 it never saw: error score 0.172, against 0.236 for the pre-match chance alone (lower is better).

A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.

How this works

Before a ball is bowled the chance comes from the pre-match model. After each ball we compare the score with what usually follows from that many overs and wickets left at this ground (like a rain-rule resource table) and, in a chase, with the runs still needed. Early on the pre-match view counts most; late on the situation does.

Northern Diamonds146/3 Western Storm118/7

Innings 1