IrelandversusThailand

1 Feb 2026 · T20

Tribhuvan University International Cricket Ground, Kirtipur · Venue photograph

Recorded result

Ireland won by 62 runs

Ireland20.0 overs121/8 Thailand16.1 overs59/10 Tribhuvan University International Cricket Ground, Kirtipur ↗

Win chances before this match

Before the toss

Ireland more likely to win

56%Ireland44%Thailand

Why

On results in T20 internationals so far, Ireland rate stronger than Thailand (1,685 vs 1,624 on our results rating)
In the last 5 T20 internationals between these sides, Thailand won 3 and Ireland won 2

Model tested on 2,789 past T20 internationals it never saw: its favourite won 73% of the time.

A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.

How this works

Worked out only from matches played before this one. The chances come from each side’s results rating in this format (an Elo rating that moves after every result), who is at home, recent form and past meetings. We tested it on matches from 2024 onwards that it had never seen. Upsets happen.

How the win chances moved

Ball by ball

Ireland started on 55%; Ireland batted first.

Ireland’s chance of winning (%) · Thailand is the rest

Ireland's chances ranged from 32% to 100% during the match (Thailand: 0% to 68%).

Biggest swings

2nd inns 6.3: AK Maguire to N Koncharoenkai, N Koncharoenkai out. Ireland up from 44% to 59%.
2nd inns 8.5: AK Maguire to C Sutthiruang, C Sutthiruang out. Ireland up from 47% to 64%.
2nd inns 11.6: AN Kelly to S Laomi, S Laomi out. Ireland up from 78% to 90%.

Tested on every ball of 1,050 matches from 2024 it never saw: error score 0.120, against 0.177 for the pre-match chance alone (lower is better).

A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.

How this works

Before a ball is bowled the chance comes from the pre-match model. After each ball we compare the score with what usually follows from that many overs and wickets left at this ground (like a rain-rule resource table) and, in a chase, with the runs still needed. Early on the pre-match view counts most; late on the situation does.

Ireland121/8 Thailand59/10

Innings 1

Ireland

121/820.0 overs

Batting, bowling & fall of wickets

Ireland batting
Batter	Dismissal	R	B	4s	6s	SR
Amy Hunterbowled · Onnicha Kamchomphu 5 fours · 0 sixes	bowled · b Onnicha Kamchomphu	24	15	5	0	160.00
Gaby Lewisstumped · Nannapat Koncharoenkai · S Chaturongrattana 3 fours · 0 sixes	stumped · Nannapat Koncharoenkai · b S Chaturongrattana	25	30	3	0	83.33
Orla Prendergastcaught and bowled · Suleeporn Laomi 2 fours · 1 sixes	caught and bowled · b Suleeporn Laomi	24	22	2	1	109.09
Leah Paulcaught and bowled · Suleeporn Laomi 0 fours · 0 sixes	caught and bowled · b Suleeporn Laomi	4	6	0	0	66.67
Laura Delanycaught · Natthakan Chantam · Suleeporn Laomi 0 fours · 0 sixes	caught · Natthakan Chantam · b Suleeporn Laomi	3	8	0	0	37.50

Bowler	Overs	R	W	Runs / 6 balls	WD
Phannita Maya0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls	4.0	25	0	6.25	0
T Putthawong0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls	4.0	27	0	6.75	0
S Chaturongrattana0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls	4.0	23	2	5.75	0
Onnicha Kamchomphu0 maidens · 1 wides · 0 no-balls	4.0	17	1	4.25	1
Suleeporn Laomi0 maidens · 2 wides · 0 no-balls	4.0	24	4	6.00	2

Over / set	Runs	Score
1	8	8/0
2	7	15/0
3	4	19/0
4	10	29/0
5	4	33/0
6	7	40/1
7	12	52/1
8	7	59/1
9	4	63/1
10	8	71/1
11	2	73/2
12	7	80/3
13	4	84/3
14	4	88/5
15	5	93/6
16	5	98/7
17	3	101/7
18	5	106/7
19	9	115/7
20	6	121/8

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