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Photo: John Sutton
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Australia tour of England · 2024 · Men
24 Sept 2024 · ODI
Riverside Ground, Chester-le-Street · Venue photographRecorded result
Australia more likely to win
Model tested on 501 past ODIs it never saw: its favourite won 63% of the time.
A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.
Worked out only from matches played before this one. The chances come from each side’s results rating in this format (an Elo rating that moves after every result), who is at home, recent form and past meetings. We tested it on matches from 2024 onwards that it had never seen. Upsets happen.
Innings 1
| Batter | Dismissal | R | B | 4s | 6s | SR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Matthew Shortcaught · Adil Rashid · Jofra Archer 1 fours · 1 sixes | caught · Adil Rashid · b Jofra Archer | 14 | 12 | 1 | 1 | 116.67 |
 Mitchell Marshcaught · Jamie Smith · Brydon Carse2 fours · 1 sixes | caught · Jamie Smith · b Brydon Carse | 24 | 38 | 2 | 1 | 63.16 |
 Steve Smithcaught · Brydon Carse · Jofra Archer5 fours · 0 sixes | caught · Brydon Carse · b Jofra Archer | 60 | 82 | 5 | 0 | 73.17 |
 Cameron Greencaught · Will Jacks · Jacob Bethell4 fours · 0 sixes | caught · Will Jacks · b Jacob Bethell |
| 42 |
| 49 |
| 4 |
| 0 |
| 85.71 |
 Marnus Labuschagnecaught · Jamie Smith · Will Jacks0 fours · 0 sixes | caught · Jamie Smith · b Will Jacks | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 |
|---|
 Alex Careynot out7 fours · 1 sixes | not out | 77* | 65 | 7 | 1 | 118.46 |
|---|
 Glenn Maxwellcaught · Brydon Carse · Liam Livingstone5 fours · 0 sixes | caught · Brydon Carse · b Liam Livingstone | 30 | 25 | 5 | 0 | 120.00 |
|---|
| Aaron Hardierun out · Adil Rashid, Matthew Potts · Matthew Potts 3 fours · 2 sixes | run out · Adil Rashid, Matthew Potts | 44 | 26 | 3 | 2 | 169.23 |
|---|
 Sean Abbottnot out0 fours · 0 sixes | not out | 2* | 1 | 0 | 0 | 200.00 |
|---|
| Extras | byes: 0 · legbyes: 1 · wides: 9 · noballs: 1 · penalty: 0 | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bowler | Overs | M | R | W | Runs / 6 balls | WD | NB |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 Matthew Potts0 maidens · 2 wides · 0 no-balls | 9.0 | 0 | 48 | 0 | 5.33 | 2 | 0 |
 Jofra Archer0 maidens · 3 wides · 0 no-balls | 10.0 | 0 | 67 | 2 | 6.70 | 3 | 0 |
 Brydon Carse0 maidens · 2 wides · 1 no-balls | 10.0 | 0 | 55 | 1 | 5.50 | 2 | 1 |
 Adil Rashid0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 10.0 | 0 | 56 | 0 | 5.60 | 0 | 0 |
| Jacob Bethell1 maidens · 2 wides · 0 no-balls | 5.0 | 1 | 33 | 1 | 6.60 | 2 | 0 |
 Will Jacks0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 3.0 | 0 | 20 | 1 | 6.67 | 0 | 0 |
| Liam Livingstone0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 3.0 | 0 | 24 | 1 | 8.00 | 0 | 0 |
1-21 (Matthew Short, 4.0) · 2-47 (Mitchell Marsh, 10.5) · 3-131 (Cameron Green, 26.4) · 4-132 (Marnus Labuschagne, 27.2) · 5-172 (Steve Smith, 34.3) · 6-226 (Glenn Maxwell, 42.0) · 7-294 (Aaron Hardie, 49.1)
| Over / set | Runs | Score |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | 6 | 6/0 |
| 2 | 4 | 10/0 |
| 3 | 2 | 12/0 |
| 4 | 9 | 21/1 |
| 5 | 1 | 22/1 |
| 6 | 3 | 25/1 |
| 7 | 1 | 26/1 |
| 8 | 7 | 33/1 |
| 9 | 4 | 37/1 |
| 10 | 4 | 41/1 |
| 11 | 6 | 47/2 |
| 12 | 4 | 51/2 |
| 13 | 5 | 56/2 |
| 14 | 2 | 58/2 |
| 15 | 4 | 62/2 |
| 16 | 5 | 67/2 |
| 17 | 6 | 73/2 |
| 18 | 1 | 74/2 |
| 19 | 4 | 78/2 |
| 20 | 6 | 84/2 |
| 21 | 11 | 95/2 |
| 22 | 4 | 99/2 |
| 23 | 9 | 108/2 |
| 24 | 5 | 113/2 |
| 25 | 7 | 120/2 |
| 26 | 11 | 131/2 |
| 27 | 0 | 131/3 |
| 28 | 3 | 134/4 |
| 29 | 5 | 139/4 |
| 30 | 6 | 145/4 |
| 31 | 12 | 157/4 |
| 32 | 5 | 162/4 |
| 33 | 6 | 168/4 |
| 34 | 3 | 171/4 |
| 35 | 1 | 172/5 |
| 36 | 6 | 178/5 |
| 37 | 7 | 185/5 |
| 38 | 4 | 189/5 |
| 39 | 7 | 196/5 |
| 40 | 4 | 200/5 |
| 41 | 12 | 212/5 |
| 42 | 14 | 226/6 |
| 43 | 4 | 230/6 |
| 44 | 5 | 235/6 |
| 45 | 9 | 244/6 |
| 46 | 5 | 249/6 |
| 47 | 17 | 266/6 |
| 48 | 14 | 280/6 |
| 49 | 14 | 294/6 |
| 50 | 10 | 304/7 |
Josh Hazlewood: EGilham · CC BY-SA 4.0
Mitchell Marsh: www.davidmolloyphotography.com · CC BY 2.0
Harry Brook: Dave Morton · Public domain
Jofra Archer: Ben Sutherland from Crystal Palace, London, UK · CC BY 2.0
Brydon Carse: Dave Morton · Public domain
Marnus Labuschagne: Ben Sutherland from Crystal Palace, London, UK · CC BY 2.0
Matthew Potts: Dave Morton · Public domain
Ben Duckett: Charltonkyle · CC BY-SA 4.0
Steve Smith: NAPARAZZI · CC BY-SA 2.0
Jamie Smith: Dave Morton · Public domain
Alex Carey: Calistemon · CC BY-SA 4.0
Mitchell Starc: Dave Morton · Public domain
Will Jacks: Dave Morton · Public domain
Philip Salt: Dave Morton · Public domain
Adil Rashid: Harrias · CC BY-SA 3.0
Cameron Green: Calistemon · CC BY-SA 4.0
Sean Abbott: Naparazzi · CC BY-SA 2.0
Glenn Maxwell: paddynapper · CC BY-SA 2.0
Statistics are calculated from imported deliveries. Super overs are separate; source corrections may change recorded figures.
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