South AfricaversusAustralia

7 Feb 2024 · ODI

North Sydney Oval · Venue photograph

Recorded result

South Africa won by 84 runs

South Africa45.0 overs229/6 Australia29.3 overs149/10 North Sydney Oval ↗

Win chances before this match

Before the toss

Australia more likely to win

12%South Africa88%Australia

Why

On results in ODIs so far, Australia rate stronger than South Africa (1,882 vs 1,599 on our results rating)
Australia are playing at home in Australia
In the last 6 ODIs between these sides, Australia won 6 and South Africa won 0

Model tested on 501 past ODIs it never saw: its favourite won 63% of the time.

A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.

How this works

Worked out only from matches played before this one. The chances come from each side’s results rating in this format (an Elo rating that moves after every result), who is at home, recent form and past meetings. We tested it on matches from 2024 onwards that it had never seen. Upsets happen.

South Africa229/6 Australia149/10

Innings 1

South Africa

229/645.0 overs

Batting, bowling & fall of wickets

South Africa batting
Batter	Dismissal	R	B	4s	6s	SR
Laura Wolvaardtcaught · Beth Mooney · Megan Schutt 0 fours · 0 sixes	caught · Beth Mooney · b Megan Schutt	0	3	0	0	0.00
Tazmin Britscaught · Tahlia McGrath · Annabel Sutherland 3 fours · 0 sixes	caught · Tahlia McGrath · b Annabel Sutherland	21	41	3	0	51.22
Anne Boschcaught · Annabel Sutherland · Ashleigh Gardner 9 fours · 1 sixes	caught · Annabel Sutherland · b Ashleigh Gardner	44	46	9	1	95.65
Suné Luuscaught · Annabel Sutherland · Ashleigh Gardner 2 fours · 0 sixes	caught · Annabel Sutherland · b Ashleigh Gardner	19	33	2	0	57.58

Bowler	Overs	M	R	W	Runs / 6 balls	WD	NB
Megan Schutt1 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls	8.0	1	35	2	4.38	0	0
Kim Garth2 maidens · 1 wides · 0 no-balls	9.0	2	42	1	4.67	1	0
Ellyse Perry0 maidens · 1 wides · 1 no-balls	2.0	0	17	0	8.50	1	1
Annabel Sutherland1 maidens · 1 wides · 0 no-balls	6.0	1	28	1	4.67	1	0
Ashleigh Gardner0 maidens · 3 wides · 0 no-balls	6.0	0	31	2	5.17	3	0
Tahlia McGrath0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls	4.0	0	17	0	4.25	0	0
Georgia Wareham0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls	4.0	0	23	0	5.75	0	0
Alana King0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls	6.0	0	26	0	4.33	0	0

Over / set	Runs	Score
1	5	5/1
2	0	5/1
3	1	6/1
4	0	6/1
5	4	10/1
6	5	15/1
7	0	15/1
8	9	24/1
9	2	26/1
10	6	32/1
11	11	43/1
12	11	54/1
13	1	55/2
14	4	59/2
15	7	66/2
16	5	71/3
17	1	72/3
18	5	77/3
19	4	81/3
20	3	84/3
21	9	93/3
22	6	99/3
23	2	101/3
24	8	109/3
25	8	117/3
26	1	118/4
27	0	118/4
28	8	126/4
29	10	136/4
30	7	143/4
31	6	149/4
32	4	153/5
33	3	156/5
34	2	158/5
35	5	163/5
36	6	169/5
37	3	172/5
38	10	182/5
39	3	185/5
40	4	189/5
41	8	197/5
42	1	198/6
43	7	205/6
44	18	223/6
45	6	229/6

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South AfricaversusAustralia

South Africa won by 84 runs

Win chances before this match

Why

South Africa

Fall of wickets