Rajasthan RoyalsversusRoyal Challengers Bengaluru

13 Apr 2025 · T20

Sawai Mansingh Stadium, Jaipur · Venue photograph

Recorded result

Royal Challengers Bengaluru won by 9 wickets

Rajasthan Royals20.0 overs173/4 Royal Challengers Bengaluru17.3 overs175/1 Sawai Mansingh Stadium, Jaipur ↗

How the win chances moved

Ball by ball

Rajasthan Royals started on 47%; Rajasthan Royals batted first.

Rajasthan Royals’s chance of winning (%) · Royal Challengers Bengaluru is the rest

Rajasthan Royals's chances ranged from 0% to 64% during the match (Royal Challengers Bengaluru: 36% to 100%).

Biggest swings

6.5: KH Pandya to SV Samson, SV Samson out. Royal Challengers Bengaluru up from 41% to 51%.
13.2: Yash Dayal to R Parag, R Parag out. Royal Challengers Bengaluru up from 37% to 44%.
2nd inns 2.3: JC Archer to PD Salt, six by PD Salt. Royal Challengers Bengaluru up from 58% to 63%.

Tested on every ball of 1,336 matches from 2024 it never saw: error score 0.175, against 0.247 for the pre-match chance alone (lower is better).

A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.

How this works

Before a ball is bowled the chance comes from the pre-match model. After each ball we compare the score with what usually follows from that many overs and wickets left at this ground (like a rain-rule resource table) and, in a chase, with the runs still needed. Early on the pre-match view counts most; late on the situation does.

Rajasthan Royals173/4 Royal Challengers Bengaluru175/1

Innings 1